I just spent three days in Bessemer AL where the Amazon union election is happening. There’s a ton of interest in this election -- the biggest in ~20 years -- so I want to share some observations and let you all know where things stand. (thread)
This is an unusually long 7-week mail-in election for 5,800 Amazon workers, with two weeks left to go. Organizers expect maybe 40% participation. Back of the napkin suggests thousands of workers still have ballots out there, hence the hard campaigning on both sides
Union got 3000+ cards signed ahead of the election, but organizers acknowledge Amazon’s anti-union campaign surely turned some of those into 'no' votes. Amazon probably benefited from that pressure especially in the earlier voting.
But organizers feel things broke their way the last couple weeks, with Biden speaking out and community support growing. One described an arc to the election: the union rolled in strong off its card campaign, Amazon beat them back, but then the union found its footing again
A fascinating thing I heard from probably five different organizers and workers: Stories about Amazon workers telling them they voted against the union and came to regret it. They’re telling these folks to ask for another ballot -- the NLRB can sort that out later.
If those anecdotes about voter regret are true, there’s good and bad in it for the union. Good in that their message is breaking through. Bad in that those folks already cast ballots against the union. Again, this is a 7-week election! It's weird stuff.
One thing you grasp talking to people on the ground is the challenge presented by Amazon's turnover. Plenty of people who signed union cards in the fall would already be gone and not voting in the election. That’s the reality. The organizing is like constantly treading water.
An important thing to keep in mind: We may not know the results of the Amazon election for days or weeks (or even months?) after the ballot count begins March 30. I expect a load of ballot challenges and unfair labor practice charges, potentially on both sides.
Unfortunately I was unable to determine through my reporting whether the union will win the election. So don't bother asking. Any union would be a big underdog here. But after seeing some of the legwork and energy on the ground I'll be a lot less shocked if the union pulls it out
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