Thread by @Mriz3

Alright, it’s the thread that everyone has been waiting for (intense sarcasm), but here’s my attempt to talk our way through all of the first round matchups along with any action I’ve taken as well, Thursday can’t come fast enough. We’ve got Madness in March!

Let’s start with these first 4 matchups. Drake vs Wichita St...
1st of all, two bid MVC. 2nd, how did Wichita St get in the tourney?! Anyways, this matchup comes down to one player, Tank Hemphill, Drake’s do-it-all slashing wing, who according to coach DeVries, will be a full go

Hemphill, who hasn’t played since February, opens everything up for this offense, while also solidifying the defense. A healthy Tank means advantage Drake. He wins the 1 on 1 off the bounce & the defense will either need to collapse down leaving shooters open, or give up the rim

Hemphill wasn’t the only loss for Drake this season, Roman Penn was giving Krutwig a run for his money for MVC Player of the year before he went down, but the silver lining through the injuries was the emergence of Joseph Yesufu, who is averaging 23 a game since Penn went down

Wichita St is talented, but they play hero ball and are undisciplined on defense, their offense is quite the sight as I don’t think you’ll see a team attempt more difficult jumpers than Tyson Etienne and Co.

I give the Shockers the talent edge but that might be it.

I believe Hemphill & Yesufu together will be a thing of beauty, be ready for back door layups and open shots on drive and kicks. And Coach Darian DeVries is truly making a name for himself as one of the best mid majors around. If the rumors on Hemphill are true, this ones easy

I will be taking the Bulldogs to advance on to play USC.

Drake +2/Drake ML #MarchMadness

Onto Mount St. Mary’s vs Texas Southern.
Johnny Jones is back in the dance, & this team fits the mold of the past Tiger squads we’ve seen. Athletic, long, & full of transfer talent from bigger name schools. Michael Weathers leads the way & is their go to scorer when💩hits the fan

Weathers wants the ball in his hand with the game on the line & he is the best shot maker out of these slew of athletes.

However, MSM has the size to stay with these athletes. Egelstad deploys a frontline trio of 6’9” forwards, the 3 trees force you to shoot over them

And they do so without fouling. Although their size is a big advantage, the best player on the court is also the smallest and I’m very excited (if you watch the first four games) for us to all learn about Damian Chong Qui! The 5’8” spark plug is electric on the court

DCQ sets the table for this offense & he is also the go to scorer in crunch time. While his size is a bit of a concern, no one has stopped him yet & I’m not sure if Weathers and Co. are up to the task. I think this is a baddd matchup for Texas Southern

MSM +2 2u
#MarchMadness

App State vs Norfolk St

Full disclosure, I didnt see any Norfolk St action this year, looking at their numbers they generate a lot of their scoring off of turnovers & at the FT line, & it looks like their actually a solid 3 point shooting team, they just don’t shoot the 3 enough

It’s the Spartans first appearance in the Tourney since since they upset my alma mater, and while this team doesn’t have a superstar, they crash the glass hard and seem to be pretty relentless on the offensive end. Of their 3 paths to scoring....

Off of turnovers, at the foul line, or on the offensive glass, the latter is the only way App St will be exposed. They have some pretty brutal defensive rebounding numbers, but they defend without fouling and have a trio of ball handlers who are all adept at protecting the rock

Adrian Delph is their most dynamic scorer and he was nothing short of spectacular in the Sun Belt Tourney. This game is an interesting one and if Norfolk St decides to come out shooting the 3 I think that’s their best path to victory

I don’t see them completely changing their offensive formula though, so give me the better guards and the better coach (Dustin Kerns is awesome) and I’ll take the Mountaineers to advance here

This is currently sitting at 3 and I’ll wait to see if any Norfolk $$$ comes in and moves it back closer to a PK #MarchMadness

MSU vs UCLA

Izzo in March seems like enough reason for me.

But we can take a deeper look, I think MSU’s resume was better than that of a play-in game team, but they did have some brutal stretches of play in the regular season. Izzo just hasn’t been able to find the right lineup

The team lacks 1-on-1 shot creators and Rocket Watts has been pretty terrible since Big Ten play started. Good news for the Spartans is that Aaron Henry is starting to emerge and Langford is beginning to look more like the player we remember from two years ago

UCLA will be without frontcourt stud Jalen Hill and I think that will be a big loss here, the downfall of their season can be linked to his absence through February/March. I think MSU is athletic enough to stay with Tyger Campbell and pass him off in dribble handoff sets

Give me the Spartans and Izzo to figure things out here and move on.

Lean Spartans -2 #MarchMadness

Let’s jump into what I think might be the toughest region, the Midwest!

Illinois vs Drexel

Ok so basically Drexel got here with this absurd stat... since the beginning of February Drexel is 57 of 111 from 3; 51.4%

That’s ehhh pretty good

They also have a true talent running the point in Cam Wynters & he will need to be dynamite in the PnR to give them any semblance of a chance.

That’s where the nice words stop for Drexel. Offense respectable, defense, yikessss

Illinois should be able to get whatever they want

And I mean whatever they want. Drexel struggles mightily in transition, welp, Ayo may just be the best guard in the country with the ball on the break, they struggle with the pick n roll, welp, Curbelo, Ayo, and even Frazier are great with Kofi and Giorgi setting the screens

O and they also struggle in the post, where Kofi has a ++++ matchup in my opinion. If their hot shooting sticks around, maybe so does Drexel, but I’ll take the Illini, they are a talent level Drexel hasn’t come close to seeing.

Fighting Illini -22 #MarchMadness

8 Loyola-Chi vs 9 Ga Tech

Ooo brother what a matchup this is, I think you can argue both of these teams got a brutal shake by the committee. I was excited to pick both of these teams in their 1st round matchup, but of course they face-off & the winner gets a date with the Illini

If you haven’t watched either of these teams play this year, you’re in for a treat. Georgia Tech’s weird morphing 1-3-1 zone looks like an amoeba of defenders working together seamlessly, many teams would struggle with running this defense but Pastners squad runs it to perfection

Now Loyola hasn’t seen much zone at all this year partly because the MVC is basically all man to man, but also because they have best passing big man in college basketball. Cam Krutwig’s game is a thing of beauty, what he lacks in athleticism he makes up with skill and smarts

If the Ramblers that Krutwig is feeding open looks to are hitting their shots, this zone might get diced up for the Yellow Jackets, if Loyola is struggling early, look for them to stay in it and force Loyola to hit the looks that Krutwig gives them

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Moses Wright matching up with Krutwig, the ACC player of the year is long and athletic and has turned into a force at the rim on both ends of the floor. Krutwig does a masterful job staying vertical on contests and out of foul trouble though

If either of these two get in foul trouble early that will be a huge swing in this matchup, let’s hope that’s not the case. Overall, I trust Porter Moser and this experiences Ramblers squad to crack the zone and play some great defense on the other end

We also learned that someone traveling with the Georgia Tech team tested positive for Covid today, so if that ends up being a high impact player (Alvarado, Devoe, Wright, even Usher) that will be a big loss for an already thin GT squad.

Ramblers ML (-130) 2u #MarchMadness

5 Tennessee vs 12 Oregon St

What a run by Wayne Tinkle and the Beavers to get into the NCAA tournament. They showed poise and confidence throughout the P12 tourney and it’s no surprise they’re playing their best ball coming into the big dance. As for this Tennessee team...

They’ve been pretty much an enigma all year, and I think it starts with Coach Barnes. He refuses to drop the flex offense and let his athletes work out of the pick n roll where they would give team fits. Instead we see a clunky hero ball offense that leads to a ton of...

...contested two point jumpers. They have the talent and skill to be a top 10 team, they have the system of a 1980’s college offense. However, they still have a top 10 pick in Keon Johnson, multiple dynamic scorers, and a fantastic post defender in Fulkerson (more on him coming)

Fulkerson is reportedly still dealing with a concussion after taking a nasty elbow in the SEC tournament, if he can’t go that’s a huge loss on both ends for this Vols team. With no Fulky, if they aren’t hitting jump shots, OSU can zone them right out of the tourney

If OSU stays hot from deep and Fulkerson can’t go, we may be seeing an upset, but I tend to think the shooting cools off and the ultra athletic Tennessee wings can stymie this Beavers offense.

I’ll wait on Fulkerson news for anything official but the Vols advance #MarchMadness

4 Oklahoma St vs 13 Liberty

This is another intriguing matchup, as the committee did neither team any favors.

Let’s start with Ok St, the fighting Cade Cunningham’s, they want to run and run and run, and I can’t blame them with their speed. When slowed into the half court...

... they are a devastating penetration team, they have 4 different slashers that can all get to the rim and finish along with Kalib Boone inside who is a bit of a force as well. This is all bad news for Liberty. Coach McKay is a Tony Bennett disciple, he runs the pack line...

... and he runs it well, unfortunately, Liberty tends to focus on taking away what they do best on the offensive end, the three point shot, they close out hard on shooters and don’t let you beat them from deep. If coach McKay focuses a bit less on close outs...

... and opts to take away dribble drive chances instead, this defense can hold. Not to mention, Liberty is great at cleaning up the defensive glass and the Cowboys crash hardddd, 2nd Chance opportunities may be the deciding factor on this end of the floor

For Liberty on the offensive end, they are similar to teams in year’s past, 4 out 1 in, and all 4 can absolutely stroke it. Coach Boynton and Ok St zone a decent amount and this would be a grave mistake against the Flames. If the glaring athletic disparity does not prove...

... to be too much for the Flames, they can stay in this & even win it. I may be giving their defense too much credit, but I like Liberty to keep this close & may even move them on in my bracket, but I don’t know if Cade Cunningham will let that happen.

Liberty +8 #MarchMadness

6 San Diego St vs 11 Syracuse

Boeheim & his March magic. I still think Cuse should have been relegated to a play-in game but maybe this will be better for SDSU, 5 days knowing they are prepping for the zone. That seems like a good amount of time for a coach of Dutcher’s caliber

We’ve all seen the zone give team fits on short notice, but for one, this zone isn’t as fierce as years past, the best defender, Kadary Richmond, has been relegated to a bench role in exchange for more offense. And when I say more offense, I mean Buddy Boeheim and Alan Griffin...

... two of the best shooters in the tournament. These dudes can light it up, and they can do it in a hurry. Dutcher will need to extend out his pack line similar to Liberty’s regular defensive scheme. SDSU on offense has the personnel to attack the zone, but they need...

... to execute and hit the shots to keep the orange out of transition opportunities. I think this spread is pretty much spot on, but give me the Aztecs to advance. Not the most extensive breakdown, but we know the zone, it comes down to making shots

Lean SDSU -3 #MarchMadness

3 West Virginia vs 14 Morehead St

I’m pretty upset that Morehead St had to go nuclear in the OVC final and average 1.3 PPP against Belmont. I was looking forward to seeing Grayson Murphy in the tourney. Alas, Morehead St is probably the next best option winners of 19 of 20

This Eagles team plays great defense thanks to their 4 guards all measuring 6’3” or taller and freshman phenom Johni Broome who holds it down in the post. Don’t let that lights our offense fool you though, they usually struggle on that end of the floor

If Broome is clicking, the offense is clicking, but that will be a tall task since Broome will be going up against a grown ass man in Derek Culver. This is not one of the WVU teams we’ve grown accustom to. They don’t press Virginia all that much and their offense...

...is without a doubt their greatest asset. After Tshiebwe left the team, Huggins needed to find a new identity and he did, filling the floor with fast athletic guards who can light it up from anywhere. This team can get a bit hero ball-ish but when the shots are falling, lookout

If Huggins decides to implement that famous press a bit more, this would be the team to do it against as they are susceptible to the turnover. I believe the guards and Culver will prove to be too much for the Eagles and Huggins & Co will move on

With that being said, 12.5 seems like a lot for a team that at least size wise and schematically seems to matchup well with the Mountaineers

Lean Morehead St +12.5 #MarchMadness

7 Clemson vs 10 Rutgers

Ok so I am definitely in the minority here, but I am pretty excited about this one. The total is 126, for those of you wondering why people aren’t too pumped about this matchup, but this rock fight should be an entertaining one

Aamir Simms is awesome for Clemson and he will be going to battle with Myles Johnson. Johnson is a bit bigger and stronger, but Simms is much more talented. He leads this offense in all of Pts/Rebs/Asts and he can facilitate from anywhere on the floor

His supporting cast is actually pretty talented but this offense tends to slow things to a halt and it seems to struggle finding a rhythm because of this. Rutgers has had a rollercoaster of a season, seriously they were great, then they sucked, then it looked like they...

...figured things out towards the end of January and then they messed it all up again losing 5 of their last 9. This offense is full of long, talented guards but they are prone to some awful shot selections. They’re at their best when Geo Baker is running the show...

... Jacob Young is driving to the bucket, and Ron Harper can take open jump shots. Unfortunately we don’t know which Rutgers we are going to get. I think Pikiell is a better game planner than Brownell, but at the same time Clemson holds a big edge at the FT line...

... tough game for me, one I’m excited to watch and I haven’t moved either team on in my bracket just yet. #MarchMadness

2 Houston vs 15 Cleveland St

Not much to see here, this is going to be one of the more lopsided games of the 1st round. Cleveland St, #1 in luck on KenPom, plays hard and physical on both ends of the ball, but they have a size issue as well as a rebounding issue

Houston plays hard & physical on both sides of the ball & they crash the glass with the best of them, o & they’re actually really talented as well. Big brother little brother game for me. Houston rebounds over half of its misses in this one & wins by 30

Cougars -19 #MarchMadness

Onto the South Region

1 Baylor vs 16 Hartford

Baylor is so good. They’re the best 3 point shooting team in the nation, they offense rebound at the 4th best rate in the nation, o and they have 3-4 different options that can masterfully operate the pick n roll

Baylor is a bad matchup for a lot of teams but they are an especially bad matchup for Hartford, an average America East team. Baylor advances, but by how much? If they care, they name the number. If they don’t, Hartford won’t quit and can probably keep it inside the 26

I think coach Scott Drew uses this game to try to get his defense locked in again, the unit hasn’t been the same since returning from the covid shutdown. If that’s the case, give me Baylor by a lot.

Baylor -26 #MarchMadness

8 North Carolina vs 9 Wisconsin

A few blue bloods who forgot how to blue blood. This is your typical UNC team, super tall, crazy athletic, wants to run, crashes the glass, they’re just missing that star guard we’re used to. Actually, their backcourt as a whole...

Has been horrible this year. Caleb Love is having one of the worst 5-star recruit seasons I can remember and fellow freshman RJ Davis has not been any better. They do however have 4 big men who can crash the glass (#1 offensive rebound team in the nation), score out of the...

... post, and play lockdown defense through multiple screens, something that’s important against this Wisconsin swing offense. O and also, Roy Williams is 29-0 in the 1st round of the NCAA tournament, which is absolutely absurd. They haven’t always been 8-9 matchups, but still

Wisconsin has had an enigmatic year, they finished 10th in KenPom but I can’t really tell you what their signature win was. Maybe at the RAC? In College Park? Over Loyola at home? You get the point. They lost to Purdue, Ohio St, Illinois, Michigan, Iowa, not one big win there

Reuvers has regressed this year & while Davison is still a pest of ungodly proportions he too has taken a step back. Trice and Potter are the straws that stir the drink but I think UNC has the athletes to limit these two.

Basically this will come down to which teams strength...

...will outweigh the other. Will Wisconsin’s experienced guards score enough and force enough TOs from this shaky UNC backcourt, or will the trees of UNC play lockdown defense while also crashing the offensive glass and dominating the paint battle. Toss up, tough one...

... but give me Roy and that 29-0 to advance. Maybe this will be a bit of a Caleb Love coming out party.

Lean: Tarheels ML (-120) #MarchMadness

5 Villanova vs 12 Winthrop

Ahh yes the trendy 12-5 upset this year, but I really can’t blame anyone for the thought.

This Winthrop team is a unicorn at the mid major level, they have depth, size, athleticism, and a true star in Chandler Vaudrin. Vaudrin is a 6’7” point guard...

... who leads the nation in triple doubles. He does everything well and is surrounded by slashers (Adonis Arms), shooters (Falden & Corbin), and a legitimate post presence (DJ Burns). This team is a joy to watch. They get the ball and go, wanting to exploit you before...

... your defense is set up. They rebound well on the defensive end and push it immediately. I don’t think this Villanova defense will be able to stop all of Winthrop’s weapons. Now, we all know Collin Gillespie is out, but let’s not act like this team is now devoid of talent

They still have Robinson-Earl, Justin Moore, Jermaine Samuels, and others, that are all talented enough to score at multiple levels. However, they have not faced a team that puts pressure on you like Winthrop (23rd best TO rate) without their PG Gillespie. And in a close game...

... late, I think Nova will really be missing it’s decision maker. Man I’m excited for us to watch this Winthrop team on the big stage.
Give me the Big South over the Big East

Winthrop +7 3u #MarchMadness

4 Purdue vs 13 North Texas

This game will be a slowwww grind, as you have the team that runs the most possessions through the post in the nation (Purdue) vs a team that runs at the 350th (of 357) slowest tempo. So the total at 127 makes sense. On paper I would say...

...that Trevion Williams is a nightmare for the UNT team, and to be fair, he is a nightmare for most teams, but this UNT team just shut down Charles Bassey in the CUSA championship and also limited Cam Krutwig earlier this year, so coach McCasland clearly has a formula...

... for stopping superior big men. Still, I think Purdue has the athletic advantages. The Boilermakers will not be forced to double the post which means their defenders can stay home on the Mean Green shooters and UNT’s post players aren’t talented enough to draw the bigs...

... away from the basket. With that being said, they do shoot it well from beyond the arc and we all know Purdue’s offense likes to go stretches of time without scoring. I see UNT slowing this down to a halt and turning it into a true rock fight

And in a rock fight. 8 points is a lot. I like this Purdue team and think they get the job done and move on, but I lean the Mean Green ATS.

Lean: UNT +7.5 #MarchMadness

6 Texas Tech vs 11 Utah St

This Texas Tech team!!! *shakes fist at sky* I love Chris Beard, everyone loved Chris Beard, at what point do we start to talk about his underachieving the last two years? I think it’s fair to give him another crack at the tourney and see...

... what kind of game planning he’s got up his sleeve, but man the last two regular seasons. All this team does is lose close games. Games that they seem to be winning at the under 4:00 minute TO. It comes down to a lack of a go to guy and a lack of an actual offense

Beard has loosened the reins & let’s McClung & Co. have the freedom of running the offense, an offense that turns into a lot of 1 on 1 iso. Now there are times when Mac is making shots, Shannon is making shots, McCullar & Edwards are making shots and things are all fun and good

But then there are times like the Texas game in the B12 tourney where their last points come at the 4:05 mark and they proceed to lose a heartbreaker in the closing seconds. McClung can be clutch, but he can also be inconsistent. They don’t have that go to scorer I think they...

... desperately need. On defense, they’re great, athletic guards that can switch ball screens and handoffs, Santos-Silva is undersized but he handles post duties well, that’s not their issue. It’s the offense that worries me.

It’s funny because the same can be said for Utah St

Craig Smith is my pick for the next mid major coach to get a big time gig. This team plays great defense funneling ball handlers into their 7 foot monster in the middle, Neemias Queta. Their 2 point defense is elite, their block rate is elite and their defensive rebounding...

... is elite, and a majority of this can be credited to Queta. Santos-Silva is up for the task, but he is definitely undersized and will have his hands full. This TTU team will need to be willing to drive and kick to open shooters and they will need to hit their jump shots...

Something that I’m very skeptical of if you couldn’t tell. As for USU on the offensive end, they miss Sam Merrill. They crash the glass hard though, a path where you can hurt TTU. However, these guards will be overmatched, Queta will need to be great passing out of the post

Finding the open shooters and the Aggies will need to hit those shots. This game will be a battle, and what a coaching matchup it is. Justin Bean is an X-factor for USU, I want to see him step up. I love Chris Beard and he may make me eat all my words and go on another run...

...but I’m done with this TTU team. Give me the Aggies to cover the spread and move on.

Lean: Aggies +5 #MarchMadness

3 Arkansas vs 14 Colgate

What a season this Arkansas team had. They had a slight hiccup in the middle when they were without Justin Smith, but he’s been back and full speed since the end of January and they are 12-2 in that stretch. For those of you that followed Musselman...

... at Nevada, you remember the freedoms he gave the Martin twins in that offense, this Arkansas team is awarded that same freedom and man do they run with it. This team pushes the tempo for 40 minutes, and it’s led to the 35th most efficient offense in the country

They are successful because Musselman elects to go small a lot, he regularly uses Smith (6’7”) at the 5 and has 4 other guards that can all slash, shoot, and defend seamlessly. I think this is a nightmare matchup for Colgate

I love me some Jordan Burns and am a big fan of the Raiders, but they too want to run and speed you up, and you simply cannot do that with Arkansas. We also have a team that only played Army, Boston, and Holy Cross this regular season. That’s it. So we have no Non conference...

... schedule to gauge off of. Now there’s no doubt this Colgate team can score against anybody, but this Arkansas team does everything that Colgate likes to do, and does it better. I think we see a ton of possessions in this one and money came steaming on the over upon open...

... Colgate can always be lights out from three and give the Razorbacks a scare, but lots of possessions means less variance, give me the favorites here as I don’t see a path where Colgate stops this offense

Arkansas -8 2u #MarchMadness

7 Florida vs 10 Virginia Tech
Mike White vs Mike Young. I think even Florida fans will tell you the coaching advantage is with the Hokies. This game is interesting because we have a VT team that has played 1 game in the last 3 weeks. Covid shutdowns have without a doubt hurt them

But they showed some great flashes early on in the season and the talent is there. Coach Young runs a beautiful playbook, this offense is fun to watch with back cuts and ball screens and off ball movement, they put defenses in a false sense of security before finding the open...

... man whether that be behind the arc or cutting to the basket. Now take all the niceness and smooth sailing I told you about Va Tech’s offense and forget it when it comes to the Gators. Mike White has athletes year after year, and he refuses to use that to his advantage...

Instead, we get a pick n roll based offense that many times forces Tre Mann to win a 1 on 1 after the switch occurs, thankfully for the Gators, Mann has been a god send since losing Johnson early in the year. I think Florida has a path to victory with Castleton in the post...

VT won’t put Aluma on an island, their packline should collapse down to help him when the ball gets entered to Castleton, from there, Florida will have open shooters. They just need to hit said shots. Overall, I think from a scheme perspective, this is advantage Hokies

But only playing one game the last 3 weeks is a bit concerning. Not quite sure where to lean here, so I’ll give the edge to the better coach in Mike Young as opposed to the best player on the court in Tre Mann.

Lean: Virginia Tech +1 #MarchMadness

2 Ohio State vs 15 Oral Roberts

We get to talk about Max Abmas and the Golden Eagles! Abmas is the name to know here as he leads the nation in scoring at just under 25 a night, but this team is littered with lights out shooters, and they come in as the 11 best 3pt shooting...

...team in the nation. They run Abmas off the PnR and let him decide what happens next. He can drive & kick to a bevy of open shooters or he can finish at the rim through contact. He really is a joy to watch, if it’s not Abmas beating you, it’s Kevin Obanor who’s shooting...

... 46% from 3 point land but also has enough size (6’8”) to bang down low a bit. This offense is going to score no matter who they face, it just helps that OSU is not an elite PnR defense as well.

The issues for ORU are not on the offensive side of the ball. The defense tho😬

A bit of a yikes. This is going to be a good old fashioned shootout. OSU should be able to get whatever they want, and I think you can make an argument that Oral Roberts will do the same. I think I’m the end, the Buckeyes are too talented, but take the over as well as the dog...

... and we’ll watch Max Abmas try and score 50 with a smile on our faces.

Oral Roberts +17 #MarchMadness

The West Region:
1 Gonzaga vs 16 Norfolk St/App St

Well, this Gonzaga team is really good. Like really really good. Their offense is nothing short of amazing as they do just about everything well on that end.

I broke down the play in game in more depth, so I don’t have...

... much to say on either 16 seed, and to be honest, neither of these teams have much of a chance stopping the Bulldogs. I’d give App St and coach Kerns a better chance at keeping things close for longer.

This one comes down to the interest level of the Zags. Do they want to...

... set the world on fire and get the respect they deserve from all the doubters or are they more focused on surviving and advancing as healthy and fresh as possible? The number will be around 30 I’d assume which is absurd. But regardless the Zags...

... will have a serious chance of covering.

Will wait to see the spread but this is probably a pass. Move the Zags along on your brackets. #MarchMadness

8 Oklahoma vs 9 Mizzou

The news about Harmon is unfortunate as he was an x-factor in this one for me. However, an argument can be made that the Sooners still hold the schematic advantage in this one.

Their PnR offense with Reaves and Manek has all the makings to give the...

... Tigers fits. Cuonzo has his squad in drop coverages on PnR’s to keep Tilmon near the basket. With lineups where Brady Manek is the 5, forcing Tilmon to guard him, Manek can can pick and pop the Sooners right into the next round. The Tigers can put Kobe Brown on Manek...

... but then who will Tilmon guard? He’s too valuable on the offensive end to not be on the court. There are three main questions for the Tigers in this one.
1. Can Dru Smith defend Reaves without fouling and keep him from taking over?
2. Can Tilmon do enough on the...

... offensive end to outweigh the impact Manek has when the Sooners have the ball?
3. Can the Tiger guards hit enough 3’s over this OU defense to give Tilmon 1 on 1 looks down low?

No Harmon means one less playmaker for the Sooners but this is still a pass for me

As a former Tiger, I will be moving Mizzou on in my bracket, but I think from this write-up you can tell my thoughts on this one😬 #MarchMadness

5 Creighton vs 12 UCSB

Another great matchup. Versus any other 5 seed I would have no problem advancing the Gauchos, Creighton however is one of my darling teams from this year. The offense has SO MUCH potential, and when it is run well it is a thing of beauty

Zegarowski is an all-American when healthy, and hes surrounded by skilled wings and forwards, there’s a reason they have 5 different players averaging double digits. They have the 13th most efficient offense and this is also actually coach McDermott’s best defensive squad he’s...

...ever had. This team has so much potential, which makes the clunker they threw up in the Big East championship all the more concerning.

Onto the Gauchos, they may have the best player on the court, and I said Zegarowski was a potential all-American. But JaQuori McLaughlin...

... is a bonafide stud. He runs the offense and can score from all three levels. You will be hard pressed to find a weakness to his offensive game. Unfortunately, his running mate, Ajare Sanni, is “day to day” but I was watching the Big West championship and I don’t think...

... he suits up for this one. It’s not a game breaker, but you want your 12 seed at full strength if they’re gonna pull off the upset. I think the Gauchos can stay with Creighton, but I’m gonna go with the Blue Jays to advance, my love for his team might hurt me

As far as the spread, 7 feels a bit short, but I’m also scared of this Gauchos team so I’m going to pass for now. If it comes down some more maybe I’ll put a unit on Creighton #MarchMadness

4 Virginia vs 13 Ohio

Another upset that everyone seems to be picking, that certainly makes me nervous, but there is solid reasoning to back the Bobcats. This team is legit, and it starts with Jason Preston who we all know by now, but he is surrounded by some serious talent

Between Roderick and Vander Plas, he’s got shooters he can feed and Doug Wilson is no slouch as a big body down low. It all starts with Preston though and he is an absolute joy to watch.

Another plus for Ohio is this vaunted Virginia pack line is not as strong as in years past

In fact, it’s fair to say that this Virginia team is better on the offensive end than the defensive end. The efficiency numbers say Hauser needs the ball more and I have to agree, but Kihei Clark runs the show and he seems intent on feeding Huff and Murphy first

This UVA team lacks size and Preston is huge compared to Clark, but that’s nothing new for Kihei. I think the final straw for this UVA team is the fact that they are not even arriving to the bubble until Thursday night. So they haven’t been practicing together at all

And on top of that, we don’t even know if the team will be at full capacity. It makes me a little nervous that the whole world is on Ohio & I’m sure Virginia is hearing it as well so we’ll get an inspired effort from the Cavs, but I’m rolling with the Bobcats

I bet this on open so my number is very nice, but I would play this at the 7.5 it’s currently at as well.

Ohio +10.5 3u, Ohio ML +300 #MarchMadness

6 USC vs 11 Drake/Wichita St

I broke down the play-in game so you know my thoughts on Drake, I love that Bulldogs team but I think the Trojans might have too much size for them. The Mobley brothers are tall, athletic, and skilled, especially Evan. He is a matchup nightmare

I think Darnell Brodie can hang but that’s leaves one of the Mobley bro’s guarded by someone 6’6” or shorter. This is a tough matchup for Drake. USC is extremely talented.
Tahj Eaddy has stepped up this year and Drew Peterson is nice too. DeVries will need quite the gameplan...

... to keep his Bulldogs in it. I will revisit this after tomorrow, but I’m having a hard time putting Drake through on my bracket, the Trojans may be the way to go. #MarchMadness

3 Kansas vs 14 Eastern Washington

The Jayhawks have had a rough lead up to the tournament and they will be without Jalen Wilson who does a little bit of everything for the Jayhawks. They are getting McCormack back though which is big

This Jayhawks offense is not anything to write home about, but Self is as good as they come at making adjustments on the fly. I think Self knows without Wilson, his biggest advantage is feeding McCormack inside.

This is one of those games where the Jayhawks have the..

... big athletic advantage and that may just be enough, but I think there are enough question marks that we can make a hell of an arguments for EWU and their unique offense. They initiate through Tanner Groves in the post and they surround him with shooters everywhere

The Eagles have a 9 man rotation & all 9 can shoot it from deep, their X-Factor is Tyler Robertson. If KU is lazy on the defensive end closing out, EWU will make them pay.

Schematically, I give the edge to EWU, athletically, its a Jayhawks domination. Do with that what you will

I think this may be my surprise pick of the 1st round, I did it two years ago when Kansas faced off with Northeastern & the Jayhawks proceeded to stomp them into the ground😂 Bill Self is rarely underprepared, regardless, let’s go Eagles

Eastern Washington +11 #MarchMadness

7 Oregon vs 10 VCU

Tough draw for the Rams here, a team I was excited to see in the tournament. Unfortunately, their offense is predicated on everything Oregon does well defensively, and not made to exploit the things the Ducks struggle with. Altman’s zone morphing to man...

... is a thing of beauty, and all five starters for the Ducks are 6’5” to 6’8”, this is important because the Rams run a myriad of dribble handoffs and ball screens, the Ducks due to their similar size and athleticism, can switch these seamlessly without missing a beat

You need size to expose this Ducks team on both ends of the floor and VCU doesn’t really have that. They do, however, have an absolute torch in Bones Hyland that can carry them if Oregon doesn’t lock him down. I think this Ducks team is clicking at the right time and I love...

... Coach Altman in a tournament setting. This is a team that can go on a run, I’m still trying to figure out how they’ll stop Garza, but for now, I have them beating the Rams and moving on.

Oregon -5 #MarchMadness

2 Iowa vs 15 Grand Canyon

Interesting matchup choice by the committee here. They gave Iowa, the team with arguably the best big in the nation, a matchup against the only mid major that has the size to match Garza. Spoiler alert, it doesn’t matter. Garza gets his no matter who...

... is guarding him. This helps GCU in the sense that he will not absolutely torch them every time down the court, but this Hawkeyes offense is too explosive to be contained. The fact that GCU has two 7 footers certainly makes things a little more interesting. They will...

... have a mismatch on their offensive end as well. I think people are giving the Lopes a little too much credit, but then again, the spread is very high, so a cover is not out of the question. Coach Bryce Drew has the X’s & O’s edge and I think he can stay inside the number

Antelopes cover, Iowa moves on.

Grand Canyon +15 #MarchMadness

Ok let’s bang out the East.

1. Michigan vs 16 MSM/Texas Southern

Touched on the play-in game, for Michigan, they’ve got an extensive playbook under coach Howard and their offense flows through all 5 positions with some effortless ball movement. No Isaiah Livers is a huge loss..

... but this team is still talented enough to make a run without him. Look for coach Howard to potentially run more zone without Livers. It will keep Dickinson out of foul trouble and they found some success against Maryland with it. As for this game? Not much to see

Michigan might struggle early but once they find their grove they’ll be moving on. #MarchMadness

8 LSU vs 9 St Bonaventure

Two of the thinnest teams in the tournament, foul trouble can spell the demise for either team. With LSU everything starts on the offensive end, this team is fun to watch they have 4 different scorers that can take over a game. Of late...

... it’s been Cam Thomas who is taking the majority of the jumpers, sometimes much to the detriment of this offense. Cam has never seen a shot he doesn’t like, and he can hit from just about anywhere, but sometimes he can be a bit of a ball hog. Something that would be ok...

... if he didn’t have Trenton Watford, Smart, and Days on the team as well. This offense is at its best when it’s pushing the pace and identifying the mismatch. I don’t see too many mismatches though on this St. Bonaventure team

The Bonnies are experienced, athletic, and most importantly long enough to defend this LSU team. Is Ossuniyi can stay on the court, this will be a great game. The Bonnies are slow and methodical on offense, breaking down the D until they get the shot they want...

That’s a great asset against this LSU team that struggles with focus on the defensive end. LSU may have turned the corner in the SEC tournament playing some great ball but I think this Bonnies team has the formula to advance.

St. Bonaventure +2 #MarchMadness

5 Colorado vs 12 Georgetown

It’s the McKinley Wright show in Boulder, as it should be, he’s a great, patient decision maker and puts his team in the best position to win night in and night out. Evan Battey has been a bit of a disappointment this season & that’s kept the buffs...

... from being truly elite. Wright has solid shooters/role players around him and this team is fun to watch when it’s clicking. They get a tough matchup with a scorching hot Georgetown team that seems to be buying in at the right time. Ewing also has turned the Hoyas...

...into a strong interior team even though they’ve struggled at the rim, they crash the boards hard. Pickett & Blair can hit tough shots & Harris looks like the PG of the future. This is an intriguing matchup & Im inclined to take the points.

Lean: Georgetown +5.5 #MarchMadness

Running out of gas here, we’ll see if I come back to finish things tomorrow. Any questions feel free to ask.
Here’s what’s left sans write ups
Who advances:
FSU
MSU
Texas
UConn
Bama

Action:
ACU +10

Leans:
UConn -3
Iona +17

My father didn’t raise a quitter... onward we go.

4 FSU vs 13 UNCG

Leonard Hamilton does it year after year. He’s got his stable of long, athletic, versatile guards. He’s missing a true shot eraser that we’ve grown used to with these teams, but Koprivica is great at the 5

And this team, because of their athleticism, handle the PnR and dribble handoffs extremely well. On offense, it’s exploit the mismatch. With their athletes on the floor there is bound to be one of them, it’s just how quick the Seminoles can identify it

This team is a nightmare matchup for most squads, but they are missing that true takeover player so their offense can go through lulls at times. Regardless, they are dangerous in this tournament.

Unfortunately for UNCG, Isaiah Miller can’t guard everyone, but their press could..

... give the Seminoles some problems. If FSU is not turning it over, they should be able to score at will though.

On the offensive end, it’s the Isaiah Miller show there as well, but FSU has 4 different guys that can guard him.

Just a bad draw for a UNCG team I was excited...

... to back. Leaning Seminoles or pass here, 10.5 is a lot.

#MarchMadness

6 BYU vs 11 MSU/UCLA

Already broke down the play-in game so let’s talk about the Cougars. This team is different from the BYU teams of the past. They do not live and die by the three, rather they work through the post and their massive size

Those who follow the big 10 will remember Matt Haarms and his hair from Purdue, well he is now the Cougars primary time defender and has really stepped up his post game as well. They will still knockdown the open kick out but it’s not the launchers we remember

They play man to man and funnel you into Haarms at the rim. Their back court lacks athleticism so guards that can run the dribble handoff and ball screens can exploit the slower cougars. If MSU holds on I like them to knock off the Cougars as well. #MarchMadness

3 Texas vs 14 Abilene Christian

Rumors of team chemistry issues with this Texas team were hopefully put to rest after their Big 12 title. This team is as long and athletic as any and Shaka gives his guards a lot of freedom with the basketball. When the ball screens and...

... isos are working this offense is extremely hard to stop. When it sputters, it turns into a turnover prone hero ball lineup that can be extremely frustrating given the talent they have on the court. Ramey, Coleman, and Jones all can score in bunches at any time

Abilene Christian forces the most turnovers in the nation and their pressure is relentless. They live in the passing lanes and force you to beat them 1 on 1, and if you do, Kohl, their 7 footer is waiting for you at the rim. This is an interesting matchup.

If Texas is turning it over they’ll be in trouble, but they also without a doubt have the athleticism to win those 1 on 1 battles.

On the offensive end, ACU funnels everything through Kohl in the post, I fear Kohl will be neutralized by Texas’s bigs. Which means the guards...

... will need to hit jump shots, which is no guarantee. I think ACU stays in it, but Texas and their athleticism should prevail here. I’ll be rooting for the upset though.

Abilene Christian +10 #MarchMadness

7 UConn vs 10 Maryland

It’s the James Bouknight show for the Huskies. But that seems to be the recipe for this UConn team, Kemba Walker, Shabazz Napier (as a 7 seed), and now Bouknight, and I tell you what, this team can absolutely go on a run

Bouknight is surrounded by some solid role players that can contribute when he is struggling. RJ Cole (who sounds healthy), Tyrese Martin, and Tyler Polley can all hit the open 3 and if Bouknight is rolling, this team is hard to stop. My favorite part about this team...

... is that they know Bouknight runs the show, and the rest of the Huskies crash the glass hard. They are the 6th best offensive rebounding team in the country.

Can Maryland stop Bouknight? Well, it helps that they have the B10 defensive player of the year in Darryl Morsell

Morsell is an elite defender and you have to wonder if our perception of this Maryland team is off based on the buzz saw they faced down the stretch in the B10. They run basically a 5 out on offense because they lack size, and the don’t run in transition, something you should...

... try and do against this elite UConn half court defense. This Maryland team has show they can play with the big guns but I like the Huskies and Bouknight to move on here.

Lean: UConn -3 #MarchMadness

2 Alabama vs 15 Iona

Unfortunately for the Gaels, nightmare matchup. You can’t press Bama, they are going to dominate this one in transition. 17 is a lot but Alabama can cover that number with ease. I just think Pitino might have some tricks up his sleeve & you heard the man...

... he brought 8 suits😂

I lean with the Gaels but I probably won’t pull the trigger.

Lean: Iona +17 #MarchMadness

Fin.