Fans of #BroncosCountry football tend to love Phillip Lindsay. He's a local guy, and it's easy to relate to him and root for him. The local media likes him, because he's a good guy. (Never underestimate the degree to which that matters to how a player is covered.) 1/17
I remember the squawks last year from the beat crew, when the Broncos paid Melvin Gordon as a UFA, and didn't extend Lindsay. They were sure it was a tremendous injustice, and a huge mistake. Here was a LOCAL GUY and he couldn't get taken care of! 2/17
In evaluating Lindsay purely as a football player, though, it's clear that he's a major negative in the passing game, especially when it comes to pass protection. This has significant non-obvious negative effects on the offense. 3/17
When a defense sees Lindsay on the field in a passing situation, it will usually check to a blitz scheme that targets him personally. He tries, and he's a tough guy, but he just doesn't square up and anchor very well, especially against big linebackers. 4/17
OK, so you get him off the field in passing downs. That signals to the defense that when he is on the field, it's more often than not a running play or play action. Otherwise, why would he be on the field? That impacts how the defense plays when he's on the field. 5/17
Lindsay runs against a lot of stacked boxes, and last season especially, he has been trending in the wrong direction on the consistency of his per-carry output. In his rookie year, Lindsay ran for 3 or less yards on 51% of his carries. 6/17
In 2019, that rose to 3 or less yards on 53% of his carries. In 2020, that was 61%, which is a really high number. If you look at it in terms of carries for 0 or negative yards, it was 19% in 2018, 16% in 2019, and a whopping 25% in 2020. 7/17
Over Lindsay's 3 seasons, 59% of his carries have come on first down, with the last 2 years being higher in that regard than his rookie year. So what does that tell us? 8/17
When Lindsay is on the field, 43% of time it's because he's going to be handed the ball. The defense stacks the box frequently, knowing this. 19% of the time, (and 25% of the time in 2020!), when you hand Lindsay the ball on 1st/10, you get 2nd/10 or worse. 9/17
That is a quiet but significant reason that the offense has struggled the last few years. A lot of series, when Lindsay gets the ball, the Broncos are behind the chains quickly. 10/17
Combine that with QB play that has been mostly marginal-to-developmental, and the boom-or-bust nature of Lindsay's running output often directly causes drives ending in punts. 11/17
The Broncos are going to say they like Lindsay. As a guy, as a teammate, I am sure they do. As a player, he's a guy that their behavior indicates that they want to upgrade upon. And they should want to upgrade on him, because he has meaningful limitations. 12/17
I know we're in the RBs Don't Matter era, but I think that one of the best places to get a RB is a late 1st round pick, like the Chiefs did with Clyde Edwards-Helaire last year. When I run mocks, I often trade down a few times and take one. 13/17
What you need to be successful on offense is a RB who can play in the passing game. It's more important than what they do on handoffs. They have to be able to pass protect, as a bottom line, and it's a big bonus if they can help in the receiving game. 14/17
If you can only play in the passing game, like, say, James White, that's less preferred, but it's OK. He signals pass, but he doesn't always signal that the pass is coming to him. If you can only play in the running game, you can't really play if your team wants to win. 15/17
Nobody has RB as a need position for the Broncos, but I sure do. Keeping the offense with the option to either run or pass based on matchup advantages, no matter who is in the backfield, is far more important than breaking off a 10+ yard carry 12% of the time. 16/17
Phillip Lindsay is a good Colorado guy, and a fun RB to watch, but if you want the Broncos to win, you should consider that no winning team in the modern NFL plays a guy like him, and you should be rooting for an upgrade, while rooting for Phillip to succeed elsewhere. 17/17
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