Thread by @ISS_RUSI

1|n Following the release of the UK's #IntegratedReview of its foreign & security policy, follow along below for a long thread with some key takeaways from the @ISS_RUSI team @Eurasia21cntry @AnisehBassiri @VeerleNouwens @VorotnyukMaryna @AadityaDave90:

gov.uk/government/pub…

2|n @Eurasia21cntry: New International context: >realism <idealism. Up to 2030s the UK faces international context defined by greater geopol/geoecon shifts, systemic comp., state threats, rapid tech change, much more contested environ – moving toward a multipolar world

3|n Nature & distribution of global power is changing. Comp. to shape future int. order. UK shift from defending Rules Based Order - status quo no longer enough. Global positioning of UK now around building new int. order thru values/multilaterals + deterrence and hard power

4|n Competition will shape UK geographic priorities. State threats to UK and allies growing & diversifying. UK remains core Euro-Atlantic power + focus on Euro-neighbourhood. Growing role over decade toward Indo-Pac (Japan/India) – led by diplomacy/trade, also Africa (East), MENA

5|n Partnership central to UK power (mentioned 59x in #IntegratedReview). Global Britain will need Euro. partners to work outside Europe. Key aim is to strengthen partnerships in Indo-Pac (ASEAN). Delicate balance betw partnerships on values & on interests (with non-democracies)

6|n Geopolitical importance of middle powers recognised. Implicit in IR is UK as middle power 'Superpower'. Strength of middle powers is working together – emerging force in global politics. UK to use convening power with similar powers in flexilateral arrangements

7|n @Eurasia21cntry on UK's Euro-Atlantic focus: core security focus remains Euro-Atlantic – countering Russia. Strong restatement of UK commitment as leading European NATO nation (2.2% of GDP). Flank focus: northern & southern-High North,Baltics,Black Sea,Balkans & Mediterranean

8|n UK remains lukewarm on EU security ties. Will coop ‘where our interests coincide’ e.g. supporting stability & security of Eur continent. Aim to find 'new ways of working on shared challenges’–how? Balance of interest is working bi/mini-laterally with Eur states – 🇫🇷, 🇩🇪 in E3

9|n Global Britain needs Global Europe. UK is ‘European country with global interests’ but to achieve these need European partners – CJEF, countering state & terrorist threats with France, Germany on Euro neighbourhood, Italy/Sweden FCAS, Euro partners in Indo-Pac–France, Germany

11|n @VorotnyukMaryna UK-Russia: 🇷🇺 named as ‘the most acute direct threat to the UK‘ and Russian activities – ‘hostile and destabilising‘ in the UK's #IntegratedReview

12|n UK response toward 🇷🇺 will remain focused on deterrence & defence against threats it represents. UK will remain the leading power working with other Allies to deter nuclear, conventional, hybrid threats, particularly from Russia, reads the UK #IntegratedReview

13|n No expectations that Russian approach changes – Russia will be more active around the wider European neighbourhood, increasingly seek strategic advantage & undermine democratic systems. The UK will help build resilience in Eastern European neighbourhood

14|n @VeerleNouwens on 🇬🇧 approach to 🇨🇳: more continuity than change. Nuanced & continued search for balance: domestic resilience from🇨🇳econ & IP threats; globally work with🇨🇳where possible but stand up for values + enhance trade/invest rels w Beijing. But no mention of FTA w🇨🇳

15|n Chinese military modernisation challenge to RBIO, but will have to wait and see on 22 March the shape of UK military engagement in Indo-Pac & resources available. UK will need to balance b/w threats closer to home & IndoPac & across domains

16|n @VeerleNouwens on UK's Indo-Pacific tilt: not as detailed as 🇫🇷, 🇩🇪, 🇳🇱. No clear geographic scope of IndoPac for UK. Focus on East Africa, India, & Southeast Asia = stronger IOR emphasis?

17|n Heavy diplomatic & econ focus. 🇯🇵 rel to be enhanced further; a lot of work to be done to advance rel with 🇮🇳. Five Eyes key in IndoPac + ROK & SE Asia. But – no mention of Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, despite noting global competition of political systems

18|n #IntegratedReview rightly sees UK's role as broader than hard power projection to Indo-Pac: marsec, supply chains, cyber, climate change. Also mentions joint exercises, training, building on overseas bases, engaging in existing frameworks (incl FPDA). But no mention of Quad?

19|n UK will work through existing multilat frameworks - ASEAN, PIF, CPTPP. But no mention of IORA. Expect flexible geometry of sometimes issue- and values-based smaller groupings where multilats are seen as ineffective

20|n Strong focus on norms/values – but unclear how this will be weighed against other interests. Also - no mention of Diego Garcia/Chagos Island disputes and the way forward – given legal findings so far, inconsistent with emphasis on RBIO.

21|n @AadityaDave90 on UK-India ties: #IntegratedReview highlights 🇮🇳 as a crucial UK partner over next decade. Emphasises deeper econ ties & tech partnership + common objectives on transnational issues (e.g. climate change, health), RBIO & IOR security as part of Indo-Pac tilt

22|n #IntegratedReview presents a clear attempt to elevate 🇮🇳 relationship – coop. on COVID-19 vaccine production & potential trade partnership to be announced during @BorisJohnson visit in April provides momentum for ties, but details of defence commitment in IOR unclear for now

23|n #IntegratedReview recognises 🇮🇳 as int’l actor of growing imp. and effectively de-hyphenates it from regional security questions, but does not address challenges in the relationship, e.g. differences on BIOT, backlash against criticism of Indian domestic politics in UK parl.

24|n @AnisehBassiri on the UK's approach to MENA: As expected, MENA does not feature as a priority in the #IntegratedReview compared to Russia, Indo-Pacific and even Africa. The review talks mainly about the region in terms of trade and investment

25|n The #IntegratedReview stresses more support to partners in the region on capacity building for CT, radicalisation, cyber, inclusiveness & stability. The aim is a resilient region, self-reliant on security – realistic goal? Perhaps not.

26|n UK armed forces are not to disappear from the MENA overnight: contribution to the Global Coalition against ISIS in Iraq and Syria will continue, as will security partnership with Israel and KSA.

27|n Iran presented as a priority: goal remains to prevent it from developing nuclear weapon and hold it to account for destabilising activities – intended approach remains diplomacy and engagement with partners.

28|n Sign up to the @ISS_RUSI monthly newsletter to stay up to date on the team's research and events: rusi.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=72…