Share this page!

Kris Profile picture
Twitter logo
17 Mar, 5 tweets, 1 min read
5 years ago...

Flew into NYC for a 36 hour trip.

I was hopping around the city meeting with bank deriv sales desks. Routine relationship maintenance.

(late to every meeting since I planned poorly and you can't cross 5th ave during St Patty's parade)

Anyway...
That evening I was at dinner as a client. As I went to the bathroom I checked my phone and my family chat was blowing up.

My sister just had a baby.

I hadn't told my east coast fam I was in NYC bc it was a quick biz trip.
I called my mom in NJ and stunned her with the knowledge that I was an hour away in NYC.

Anyway, I excused myself from dinner, hopped on a bus to my childhood house in Hazlet, borrowed my mom's car and drove down to Jersey Shore Medical Center.

It was close to midnight
When I walked into the hospital room I'll never forget my sister's look of 'what are you doing here?'

I got to meet my new nephew, spent an hour chatting with my sis and her husband, and made it back to NYC with enough time to grab my bags and get back to JFK.
Anyway, St Patrick's Day has taken new meaning since then in my mind.

Happy 5th birthday to my nephew!

(My second son was born 6 weeks later. Both of my sons are matched in age with my sister's boys which is a really fun dynamic.)

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Kris

Kris Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @KrisAbdelmessih

Kris Profile picture
8 Mar
We are watching people put a price on their reputations in realtime.

Their bet is they will make so much money they won't need them.
Here's the thing. I've seen this many times. And it will probably work and be fine.

But as I'm struggling to teach my 7 yr old these days, it's what you do when nobody is looking. Fear of repercussions is the lowest bar.
This also implies you should not worry if people get what is coming to them. That can be the thought of someone who abstains bc they fear repercussions themselves.

It will sap your energy to concern yourself. Just protect yourself and others who you can protect.
Read 5 tweets
Kris Profile picture
3 Mar
An example of thinking about wanting to be long options where the stock ain't going.

In my PA I might consider stock replacement. Not ITM calls though. OTM calls.

Why?

The first thing most might think is "steep upside slope"

That's not exactly what I'm thinking.
US large cap is expensive by every measure. Fine. Well Meb Faber said Japan went to 90 p/e. The market could 2 to 3x from here on flat earnings. Falling behind on that would suck. Not acceptable. Wealth effect would mean I could never afford a house in that world.

Still...
That's not really the driver of the trade expression. It's that given the valuation I'm ok missing a 10% rally say but if the market rolls over there's my actual win condition.

Not being overly exposed to the sell-off (I know stonks only go up)
Read 8 tweets
Kris Profile picture
3 Mar
A thread about directional edge vs carry based on a convo I had with a younger trader.

His strategy was to sell options when IV was in the 100th percentile. What are some problems with this?
The most obvious is that 100th percentile depends on your lookback window and the relevance of that window is I don't know, arbitrary. The historical distribution of IV does not need to have any relevance with respect to qualitative information you have today. (Umm, GME).
Here's another issue.

Any day when vol goes up after a 100th percentile IV day is just another 100th percentile IV day.

The next day given, that you just hit 100th percentile yesterday, just doesn't care that yesterday was a "top" compared to the days that preceded it.
Read 16 tweets
Kris Profile picture
2 Mar
Watching finance/tech moguls who have ridden govt-sponsored near zero cost of capital to multi-gen wealth not answer the door when the govt comes back around looking for a wealth tax rebate
Don't get me wrong it's a bad idea...but strictly for practicality reasons. Not for some ethical or other made up incentive theory. We haven't cared about sht like that since GS was made whole on AIG CDS, entrenching TBTF, and favoring monetary over fiscal until a pandemic hit.
Next time the govt buys assets to stimulate the economy it should also buy a lookback option from the asset sellers. Then we can say "look you knew the rules before you took the money". They still would have signed up bc people love to sell options too cheap...
Read 4 tweets
Kris Profile picture
2 Mar
I was going to write a post similar to this but from a different angle. I'm not going to get around to doing that but I'll share the gist...
Labor wages are less volatile than asset returns are only applied to a flow variable...income.

Asset volatility is applied to a stock variable...wealth.

Ok let's consider utility of wealth for a moment...
Whether you want to attribute it to behavioral loss aversion or non-ergodicity (ie we intuitively maximize geometric returns) the outcome is the same:

We have concave wealth functions.
Read 15 tweets
Kris Profile picture
26 Feb
I'll share some of the questions I got back in 1999...
You flip a single die and will paid $1 times the number that comes up. How much would you pay to play?

Suppose I let you take a mulligan on the roll. Now how much would you pay (you are pricing an option now btw)?
My batting avg is higher than yours for the first half of the season. It's also higher than your for the second half of the season.

Is it possible your avg for the full season is higher than mine?

(Simpsons paradox)
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @KrisAbdelmessih has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @KrisAbdelmessih!

Read all threads by @KrisAbdelmessih