Ninos M Profile picture
17 Mar, 16 tweets, 6 min read
DeFi resurrects the saver from a fifty year demise.

It begins with @anchor_protocol, an economic primitive that may become crypto’s risk-free rate & foundation for fixed income.

We just published: “Resurrecting The Saver: Walking Tall with Anchor”…

The report is broken up into three parts:



PART I covers:

a) The end of the saver, Nixon’s capitulation and Gold’s final deathblow. The new orthodoxy that lionized the debt-craving consumer. Purchasing power dwindling to oblivion; the decline of savings as a % of GNI and real yields wheezing their way to zero.
b) The unstoppable rise of the central banker, the market’s ultimate watchman and supreme of the speculators. Central banks *are* the capital markets; waging war on de-leveraging events at all costs and spawning the Five Micro Bubbles of dysfunction.
c) The post-Nixon crescendo and central banker’s ultimate double bind: Destroy the currency or destroy the asset bubble. Cracks emerge in the dance between the market and the Fed. The grip loosens with distress in bond (2020) and yield (2021) markets.
d) The double bind, bad news for savers and bad news for society. The masses face currency devaluation or a deep and painful economic deleveraging. A tragic end-game; the end of the saver as class warfare and the road to revolutionary divide.
PART II covers:

a) Bitcoin as salvation of the saver and a narrative converging on the defense of purchasing power. Business cycles free from central banker magic; busts that are quick and nasty and wipe away the boom’s excess. BTC as the Austrian Moment.
b) DeFi as the next era of money markets; the total rejection of centrally planned interest rates and capital controls; a refusal to bail out the “degen” in search of free lunch. No protocol is too big to fail, no matter how “systemically important”.
c) DeFi’s fatal flaw; a farmer land grab, but unsuited to the mainstream saver. Yield that is erratic, volatile and correlated. Building a matrix for DeFi yield and its unsatisfying conclusion: DeFi Yield is Levered Yield.
d) Graduating beyond the boom and bust; the path to fixed Income is paved with smoothed yield curves. Augmenting DeFi away from short term debt by leveraging crypto’s only source of unlevered yield: the dark horse of PoS yield.
PART III covers:

a) Anchor as the first fixed income protocol for stable crypto-native returns. Merging DeFi genius and PoS cash flow to create The Anchor Rate; DeFi’s risk-free rate, the decentralized FFR (DFR) and the benchmark for all yield.
b) Just like other money markets but one special twist: the depositor’s stable benchmark of interest. Mechanism design; Building A Better Savings Account; staking derivatives & the power of the bAsset. Unlock PoS liquidity to subsidise DeFi lending.
c) Defining the Anchor Rate & comparing Anchor Money Markets with DeFi’s. Platform Interest Rates (PIR), Utilization Rates & alpha (α) as the ultimate variable: subsidising lenders and giving borrowers what’s left.
d) The Target Lending Rate: stabilization without central bank bravado. Anchor as a Financial Control System; the self-referential shift toward equilibrium. A decentralized FDIC and the liquidation contract; beware of the undercollateralized & remember to back stop the system.
e) The bootstrapping era: bLuna & the road to Solana, Polkadot & Cosmos. Today’s 20% peg. Anchor as the birth of a bond market. Constructing a Yield Curve & Anchor Rate derivatives: who will be first? Forget “60/40”; Anchor as a portfolio diversifier. The Terra suite.
f) Resurrecting the saver. The Trojan Horse for mainstream adoption, one API away. Abstract away complexity and give the end-user a simple savings account. Anchor as Stripe For Savings & DeFi’s mainstream moment.

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More from @ninos_mansor

8 Mar
I would be absolutely terrified to hold any form of ETH short right now. Here's a thought experiment for how reflexive and fragile market psychology is right now.

Imagine Saylor divested 10% of his treasury into ETH. I'm not saying he will - but what would happen if he did?
It's probably not going to be Saylor, but somebody is going to do it. If not the leading BTC Stonk, a blue chip tech company. If not a blue chip tech company, a brave insurance or pension fund. If not 10%, 5%.
Who is first or how large their position is ultimately won't matter. The moment a *credible* treasury allocates into ETH, the market suddenly flicks a switch and gaps like it hasn't done in years.

Shorts clobbered and reflexive narratives crystallised - overnight.
Read 6 tweets
1 Mar
DeFi’s narratives in 2021👇
Slowly chipping at TradFi credibility from synthetics to savings, injecting itself into legacy systems during moments of havoc (GME). Oasis for 24/7 price discovery in an era of dysfunctional markets. A refuge for savers in the yield-deprived sahara, without bankers & their fees.
Institutional products racing to capture inflows (Bitwise the early-mover, Grayscale the 800 pound behemoth). Wall Street rebels warm but unallocated, Wall Street dinosaurs in denial. As with BTC, they ultimately allocate by force, not by will -- client demand dictates all.
Read 8 tweets
9 Feb
Post-Musk crypto markets are going to be eclectic and confusing. Retail is now here to stay, so capital rotation becomes more idiosyncratic. $DOGE type moves that leave us totally bewildered. More chaos and randomness. Correlations fly around and confuse conditioned participants.
The entrance of Musk's retail is the return of a 2017-type market. It'll be way more fragmented vs 18/19/20. It's not a market where you can over-generalise through clear structural themes.

Alts blown off one second, pullback is over the next, lead by some random coin on WSB.
It's now a war between old retail and Musk retail. The psychology of Musk retail is very different. Musk's crowd is futuristic and open-minded. Anything is possible. Any valuation, any idea. Pure crypto retail is skeptical, wounded by bear market PTSD.
Read 8 tweets
3 Feb
The market is yet to understand Ethereum’s four-prong supply sink

Unlike the Halving, $ETH's supply-side argument is not straightforward to grasp

But once understood, just like the Halving, these dynamics will drive a quick institutional repricing 👇
1) Firstly, ETHE has re-opened for subscriptions as of early February. This is a check valve: coin that enters does not leave.

With a CME contract paving the way for institutions to arb the ETHE premium, this ultimately creates a black hole for spot $ETH.
2) While ETHE is an institutional supply sink, ETH 2.0 is a gravity well for diehard, ETH-denominated HODLERs.

Staking metrics are growing: According to @cryptoquant_com, the staking rate has grown by 250% since December and roughly 2.8m ETH ($4.3b) now sits in contract.
Read 7 tweets

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