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Taniel Profile picture
@Taniel
Mar 18, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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just a mid-week reminder of things we do as a country ImageImage
when a 6-year old is dragged to court for picking a tulip

read the North Carolina story: journalnow.com/north-carolina… Image
7,300 complaints were filed against children YOUNGER THAN 11 in North Carolina, between 2015 & 2018.

47% of the complaints were against Black children. (22% of the state's population is Black.)

journalnow.com/north-carolina… Image
(There is a problem when 6- or 9-year old children being arrested & brought in a courtroom get a ***tiny*** fraction of the national attention that parents get who're annoyed their children are being told too much about race & racism in school & who contact media about it.)
Thread has more attention in recent days, so here’s more info: how young do children have to be for states to consider them too young for court? CA & MA set the highest (at 12); NC sets it at the lowest (at 6), but many states have no set minimum. njdc.info/practice-polic… Image
And remember: this thread is discussing *very young children brought into juvenile court*

There’s a separate issue of minors being dragged into even more punitive adult court. That, too, is disproportionately used against black youth.

This is Pittsburgh: theappeal.org/in-pennsylvani… Image
UPDATE: New bills are now moving in North Carolina legislature that'd make it so no child under the age of 10 can face criminal proceedings & be brought to court (as in the case above).

Some state actors (incl. Gov's office) want to see it raise further. newsobserver.com/news/local/cri…

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More from @Taniel

Taniel Profile picture
Nov 4
these are getting underplayed this year, but the rules of democracy are *directly* on the ballot in many places

here, quickly, is my top 5 referendums on that
1️⃣ Arizona organizers worked hard to put an abortion rights measure on November's ballot.

But the GOP made its move too: They've put a separate referendum on the ballot.

It'd basically shut the door on future ballot initiatives in Arizona. boltsmag.org/arizona-ballot…
2️⃣ Connecticut, somehow, still requires an excuse for people to vote absentee.

A ballot measure this November will open the door to finally allowing everyone to vote by mail.

And this'll be particularly major for people with disabilities:

boltsmag.org/connecticut-ba…
Read 7 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Nov 3
Abortion is big in the presidential race, of course, & there are many referendums on it.

But there's more: there are many races that are too overlooked where abortion rights is a key issue, for downballot offices that really matter to abortion policy.

My thread of the top 5: ⬇️
1️⃣ I have to start with Arizona's judicial elections.

Two things simultaneously:
1. Two of the 4 justices who voted to revive a near-total abortion ban this spring are up for retention.
2. GOP has advanced a measure to nullify these judicial elections. boltsmag.org/proposition-13…
2️⃣ DeSantis removed Tampa's elected prosecutor from office, citing in part the prosecutor's decision to sign a letter saying he wouldn't prosecute abortion. cases. (DeSantis has signed strict restrictions.)

That prosecutor is now running for his job back: boltsmag.org/hillsborough-c…
Read 8 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Nov 2
Here's the final Ann Selzer/DMR poll of Iowa:

Harris is up 47% to 44%. 
(Not a typo. Last DMR poll had Trump up 47/43 in September.)
In 2016 & 2020, Selzer’s final poll looked like an outlier in opposite direction; days after, we learned it was actually not off, & had foreshadowed polling error in Rust Belt.

This, again, is just one poll; we’ll see soon enough whether it captured something no one else did.
Other details in poll:
—Poll was this Monday through Thursday.
—Margin is within MoE of 3.4%, of course (though this is a looooot more off from expectations).
—Harris up 28% among independent women, though Trump up among men.
—RFK at 3%

Link to the poll: desmoinesregister.com/story/news/pol…
Read 5 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Nov 2
Here's what I'd say about why people care about the Selzer poll, besides the mythologizing. In final days of both 2016 & 2020, as polling had Dems in strong shape (well, esp. in 2020), it was the rare sign that something could be amiss in other polling. (1/3)
Extent to which Rust Belt white voters swung to Trump was just not understood before we saw results in 2016, tho Selzer gave a preview. (She also was first to capture IA changed in 2014.) There was this idea in 2020 that had swung back; her poll was clearest cold shower.
But of course: IT'S JUST ONE POLL! It's subject to the same margin of error, can be off in any direction, and in the moment it wasn't clear what they meant.

Same today: IT'S JUST ONE POLL.

But that gets to other thing about Selzer poll: it's clearly uninterested in herding.
Read 4 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Oct 25
I think Arizona's elections may be the single most important rn — even putting aside the presidential election.

The amount of items on the ballot that could transform state politics, upend the election systems, as well as criminal justice and courts, is remarkable. Here's why.
Let's start with: Democrats have a chance to take control of the state government by flipping two seats each in the Senate & the House. That'd be the first time they do that since *1966*.

If you've followed MI and MN politics recently, you know a new trifecta can get very busy.
Despite GOP control of the legislature, progressives have managed to pass reforms like minimum wage through ballot measures.

But Republicans have put a ballot measure on the ballot... that would squash future ballot measures. boltsmag.org/arizona-ballot…
Read 14 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Oct 14
Politico releases a memo of *internal GOP polling* for a chief Senate SuperPAC conducted in October.

It has some interesting trendlines & results for both pres & Senate. (May have not been intentional release?) …

Walking thru some highlights:politico.com/news/2024/10/1…
—Arizona:
Pres race tied 47/47 in Oct (Trump led in Sept.)
Gallego up 47/42.

—Maryland:
This GOP poll has Hogan now *down* 48/41, after leading 49/41 in September.

—Michigan:
Harris up 45/42, and Slotkin up 46/38.
(In both cases, Dems better than two September polls.)
—Montana: Memo says Sheehy has led in their last four internal polls, between 2% and 5%. October poll 48/44.

—Nevada: Pres race tied, & Rosen up 43/36 (that's a lot of undecided), both same as Sept.

—Ohio: Brown leads 45/39 in October. Trump 47/43. Again, lots of undecided.
Read 10 tweets

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