Our new paper on the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and serious outcomes from COVID-19 for adults who live with children, compared to those who don’t, is out today in the @bmj_latest
bmj.com/content/372/bm…
bmj.com/content/372/bm…
The importance of children in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is uncertain. We sought to study the balance between any cross protective immunity from seasonal coronaviruses with potentially increased transmission risk
We used anonymised GP records for 12m people across England and categorised households by whether people lived with children or not. We looked at the risk of developing SARS-CoV-2 infection, and outcomes from COVID-19 (hospitalisation, ICU admission and death)
During the first wave of the pandemic in the UK (March-August) , living with children of any age was not associated with an increased risk of severe outcomes from covid-19, compared with not living with children
During the second wave risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (Sept-Dec) and covid-19 related hospital
admission was increased for adults aged 65 years and under living with children of any age, compared with those not living with children
admission was increased for adults aged 65 years and under living with children of any age, compared with those not living with children
However, absolute increases in risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection and covid-19 related hospital admission among adults living with children in wave 2 were small
The increased risks were observed at a time when schools remained open, raising the possibility that widespread school attendance may have led to increased risks to households.
But other differences between those with and without children could also have explained these findings
But other differences between those with and without children could also have explained these findings
The small increases in risk we have identified across the whole population, even if casually associated with school transmission, must be balanced against the benefits of children returning to education.
However, we hope that our research serves as a timely reminder of not letting the guard down now: we must continue to minimise opportunities for SARS-CoV-2 transmission by adhering to current guidelines as the vaccine programme continues.
The paper contains a wealth of other analyses including interactions with sex of the adult and whether the adults were likely to have been shielding, and results for adults over 65 years. And we'll look at the data from 2021 in the coming months
Thanks to lead author Dr Harriet Forbes, @bengoldacre, @krishnan_lshtm, @rozeggo, @sebbacon & all the wonderful collaborators at @OpenSafely, @ehr_lshtm, @EBMDataLab, @TPP_SystmOne and to @NHSEngland for making EHR data available
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