$PLTR milestones, I expect in 2021
- PLTR YoY revenue for 2021 >50%
- PLTR YoY client revenues >15% for existing client
- PLTR signs 10+ new contracts in existing sectors
- PLTR enters into 5+ new sectors
- PLTR introduce (at least 1) new and/or updated products by YE 2021
- PLTR YoY revenue for 2021 >50%
- PLTR YoY client revenues >15% for existing client
- PLTR signs 10+ new contracts in existing sectors
- PLTR enters into 5+ new sectors
- PLTR introduce (at least 1) new and/or updated products by YE 2021
Let me add my PT related expectations about $PLTR if market sentiments keep dominating company and sector influence
- EO April 25-26$
- Q2 end near 30-35$
- YE 40-45$
- EO April 25-26$
- Q2 end near 30-35$
- YE 40-45$
If we see clear emergence of company and sector sentiment overtaking then we can expect higher prices
- Q2 end near 35$+
- YE 60$+
Fundamental news for the company has been stronger and likely not priced in $PLTR stock
- Q2 end near 35$+
- YE 60$+
Fundamental news for the company has been stronger and likely not priced in $PLTR stock
If $PLTR fails to meet all 5 operating metrics as in pinned tweet, I will immediately cut the position size half, and ill re-evaluate my position size. Still I will keep an overweight position. I need to see evidence of TAM increasing in concentric circles
Why I have a high hurdle rate for $PLTR
Karp has stated that @PalantirTech will be the most important SW company one day ->I don't see how the most important SW company has TAM of 119 billion$ & revenue of 4 billion$ by 2024-25, these are signs of good company not most important
Karp has stated that @PalantirTech will be the most important SW company one day ->I don't see how the most important SW company has TAM of 119 billion$ & revenue of 4 billion$ by 2024-25, these are signs of good company not most important
Karp also said that $PLTR is building solution for the problems companies will only know by/in 2030-> how to estimate TAM for this, which is unknown to most companies. Existing companies are spending more, customers are increasing, new partners, new sectors are added
Even with exceptional results, $PLTR has yet to dominate any industry. Isn't a product with best proposition should dominate clients in few large sector outright. $PLTR doesn't know all the clients problem and Clients don't know what data can solve so both are in discovery mode
Thiel has discussed his philosophy of building monopoly and $PLTR is the company that embodies the concentric circle approach of increasing TAM. Based on my observation above I don't see $PLTR management stated operating goals are the reflection of real ambition, which is larger
Key Threats to $PLTR growth IMO
- Complacency, if the team starts getting satisfied with 40% revenue growth
- Failure to build sector dominance and stay as a niche player
- Lack of mass-market products moving forward
- Emergence of new players and new solutions
- Political risk
- Complacency, if the team starts getting satisfied with 40% revenue growth
- Failure to build sector dominance and stay as a niche player
- Lack of mass-market products moving forward
- Emergence of new players and new solutions
- Political risk
Mis-information to avoid, if you are long in $PLTR
- Mainstream media narrative of black box company --> lack of understanding or selective bias
- Solution is not scalable --> $PLTR is priced high due to high scalability
- works with CIA --> A lot of companies works with CIA
- Mainstream media narrative of black box company --> lack of understanding or selective bias
- Solution is not scalable --> $PLTR is priced high due to high scalability
- works with CIA --> A lot of companies works with CIA
Working with the government is a benefit as it creates source of resilient cash & since when democracy is about companies not working for governments and institutions. Should we support companies that sell data in mischievous ways and take high moral grounds - NO
I support $PLTR
I support $PLTR
Key Threats to $PLTR growth IMO
- Complacency, if the team starts getting satisfied with 40% revenue growth
- Failure to build sector dominance and stay as a niche player
- Lack of mass-market products moving forward
- Emergence of new players and new solutions
- Political risk
- Complacency, if the team starts getting satisfied with 40% revenue growth
- Failure to build sector dominance and stay as a niche player
- Lack of mass-market products moving forward
- Emergence of new players and new solutions
- Political risk
Mis-information to avoid, if you are long in $PLTR
- Mainstream media narrative of black box company --> lack of understanding or selective bias
- Solution is not scalable --> $PLTR is priced high due to high scalability
- works with CIA --> A lot of companies works with CIA
- Mainstream media narrative of black box company --> lack of understanding or selective bias
- Solution is not scalable --> $PLTR is priced high due to high scalability
- works with CIA --> A lot of companies works with CIA
To understand $PLTR TAM model, think it in terms of concentric circles. They started with Gotham and TAM was limited. They used the knowledge and build Foundry then, and expanded TAM. The TAM for these two for known problem estimated for 119 billion$, based on expenditure today
So in existing TAM, clients and $PLTR figure out new solutions for the problems that were not considered before, or treated as the norm in industry or required disruption of the business process altogether. It couldn't have been thought in the initial scope and part of discovery
Then comes the 2nd part of increasing another ring in concentric circle i.e. products for new clients and be solutions that expands TAM further. This is discussed in length by Thiel as the holy grail of building monopolies. $PLTR seems to be following it so far
The company took 17 years to build the tech and still perfecting it and they are fundamentally different. $PLTR focuses on empowering frontline workers with unique human-centric AI/ML UI/UX solutions instead of automation meant to replace them. companies can't replicate it easily
My single most important operating metric for $PLTR growth, if I pick out of 5 (pinned tweet) is 1.65 billion$+ revenue for Yr 2021.
Best enterprise data and AI operating suites, if growing by 40% YoY, I will be concerned. Most important SW should have 25 billion$ FCF near 2030
Best enterprise data and AI operating suites, if growing by 40% YoY, I will be concerned. Most important SW should have 25 billion$ FCF near 2030
To break in numbers
- current revenue is ~1.1 billion $
- 50% growth takes to 1.65 billion $
- 15% growth from existing customers I.e. 165 million $
- 385 million $ from new clients
I hope it helps
$PLTR
- current revenue is ~1.1 billion $
- 50% growth takes to 1.65 billion $
- 15% growth from existing customers I.e. 165 million $
- 385 million $ from new clients
I hope it helps
$PLTR
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