Lateriser12 Profile picture
Mar 23, 2021 14 tweets 6 min read Read on X
*The Fuck Rank Protection Thread*

Hello. Welcome to the thread. There's a lot of conversation around "protecting rank" especially for those that are highly ranked. If that is for you, fair enough, but I insist you read on and i'm hoping to talk to your inner rebel (cont)
In my opinion, every year that we continue playing this game, it gets more and more difficult to reach the upper echelons. My school of thought whenever I've entered the top 10k with a few Gameweeks to go has always been - "Fuck. I am not getting this chance in FPL again". (cont)
You lot were with me on the ride last season. I was 1k with 8 Gameweeks to go. The same thought came to me again. I wasn't going to get this opportunity ever again. I didn't say, fuck, rank protection yada yada (not wrong but i'm trying to inspire here so bear with me) (cont)
Be opportunistic! Say to self that you're not getting this chance again! Look. Closely. In depth. For opportunities. You're in the top 10k for a reason right now. Because you understand the game and you know what you're doing. Don't undermine yourself. You've got a shot! (cont)
Last season, at this point, when I was in the top 1k, I made many bets against the template. Went Raz over KdB and Tony early. Capped Raz and Tony on 3 separate occassions. Hit GW ranks under 10k twice. Under 100k thrice. See the screenshot. Made huge leaps in rank in these(cont) Image
..weeks. Don't go batshit crazy and do stupid things. Look harder is all i'm saying. Don't be afraid is all i'm saying. Don't 'protect'. Attack instead. I repeat, you might not get this chance again. Back in 2012/13 I finished 189th. With 4 Gameweeks to go, I was rank 25..(cont)
and about 30 points behind numero uno. Went anti template, finished 189th. So what? I had a shot. I took it. I'd do it 10/10 times. 189th and 50th is the same thing. And the key is its not top 10. Its not #1. Whenever i'm up there, I'm in awe because I don't expect myself (cont)
to be there. Such a privilege. Such an opportunity. Imagine being in a race and having 3 cars ahead of you and not shifting a gear and trying to overtake those ahead, but instead defending your 4th place against those behind. The moment you do that, you're admitting (cont)
that those behind you have a faster car (sharper brain). Why? You've got your position on merit. And you're better than those ahead of you, so go for it. Why are you so scared to just back yourself? You're not getting this chance again. Maybe don't let EO come into your (cont)
thinking for the final stretch where you're just picking good players on eye-test and/ or stats. Same story in 2015/16 for me. Entered top 10k. Was opportunistic. Many bets against template. Many GW ranks under 10k. Many huge jumps. Including GW 38. (cont)
Got in Mane and Giroud in GW38 for a (-4). Why was protecting rank in the 'top 500' an option. Why not top 100. Capped Giroud as well. Lets go the whole stretch. Mane Brace. Giroud Hat trick. Top 100. India #1. Fuck me, this is my best FPL moment ever. (cont)
I just knew it would never happen again. How would it? And it only happened because i said fuck rank protection. Comes down to your ambition but why do you say enough? You're in the top 10k/100k. You're the manager in form. all of us would kill to be in your place. (cont)
This thread has gotten more passionate than i intended it to be but fuck it. You get the point. If you're at 100k, go for 10k. If you're at 10k, go for 1k. Very much possible. Odds are you're making that jump if you're aggressive not passive. Nothing against the dullards (cont)
with this thread. But we need more people saying fuck rank protection. Just ask @ffscout_luke. And if it doesn't work, so what. Take it on the chin. Atleast you tried.

I'm done now. You've got a shot mate. Take it. Fuck Rank Protection.

Intent is only to inspire.

Fin.

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More from @lateriser12

May 18
🧵Gameweek 38 - Important Info Thread🧵

As we move into the final Gameweek of the season, here's my final 'information thread' of the season. I basically compile a lot of relevant useful information that I come across on @FFScout and it is more information to arm you to make your decisions rather than opinion.

Most of my opinion I cite on our pod but I wonder if I should start doing more of that on here? And give me honest feedback on this 'information thread' too and whether you'd like me to continue next season? It does take a fair amount of work. And if you like what you read, do share/ RT.

Anyway, lets begin. I've grouped things team wise to make it a better read. I'll do team news from Friday at the end of the thread.

Lets begin with Manchester City.

We'll begin with my favorite stat. This one's a banger.

If we’re talking City attackers, do we have to include Josko Gvardiol (£5.1m) now? A left winger masquerading as a full-back, he’s even level with Foden for penalty box touches and big chances in his last six matches.

Man City are entering the final day two points ahead of Arsenal. Their eighth win in a row, Pep Guardiola’s relentless champions are now unbeaten in 22 league outings.

Consequently, Haaland seems to have secured another Golden Boot and Aston Villa are now guaranteed Champions League football for 2024/25.

Yet Josko Gvardiol (£5.1m) bagged more than twice that amount. No attacking achievements this time as he ‘just’ claimed a clean sheet but it means he’s gifted 27 Gameweek points to over 50% of the top 100k.

In fact, the Croatian defender did chalk up one big chance when reaching a cross with his back-post volley. Had it been kept low, he would’ve followed Saturday’s heroic brace with a third strike of this Gameweek.

Managers will instead need to be content with four goals, two assists and four successful shut-outs in his last six league games. At least one return in all of the half-dozen, averaging 11.0 points each time. Elsewhere, Phil Foden (£8.5m) received a booking but forced an excellent save from Guglielmo Vicario (£5.3m). Kevin De Bruyne (£10.6m) was also denied, before later assisting Haaland’s opener. He appeared to be hurt at one point but quickly came back on.

vs Fulham

Pep loves a counternarrative.

“No, when we signed him, [I didn’t expect goals]. Some headers and set pieces, yes.

“Second half he didn’t play good, he lost a lot of balls. For defenders, the most important thing is to play safe. Play so simple, that’s the most difficult thing.

“After he scores goals, it’s more than welcome, but it’s not his job.” – Pep Guardiola on Josko Gvardiol

“Another two goals, happy. Of course a clean sheet, happy as well.

“We were discussing about me taking the penalty and of course, I would like to take it. But we know who the taker is and he takes. So in the end it was Julian and I am happy for him to score a goal.” – Josko Gvardiol

Gvardiol’s second goal arrived from a set piece but his first was yet another example of his open-play threat, a one-two with Kevin De Bruyne (£10.6m) ending with a superbly taken strike.

That was one of seven chances created by De Bruyne, who was unfortunate to emerge with just one assist. Haaland wasted the best of the rest: after the four-goal salvo of last weekend, it was Double Gameweek 25 Haaland who made an appearance in west London.

Phil Foden (£8.5m) trundled in City’s second goal, his sixth strike in four starts.

West Ham travel to Manchester City on the final day, having conceded 10 goals in their past two away trips.

West Ham United, on the other hand, haven’t shut out a single team since Gameweek 21. The Hammers are in the bottom three for goals conceded, expected goals conceded (xGC) and big chances conceded since then.

(continued)Image
Lets talk about Arsenal next.

Mikel Arteta was able to name the same starting XI for the fourth match in a row.

Mikel Arteta’s side have now kept 11 clean sheets in top-flight away matches this season, at least five more than any other club. Manchester City, for example, have only managed six so far.

“We started the game really well and were dominant. We scored the goal and I think the goal led to slightly bad things because we started to play too safe, too sideways, too backwards with not enough structure. We started to give the ball away in good areas and that is a danger against them. But we defended well and didn’t concede too much.” – Mikel Arteta

Kai Havertz (£7.5m) supplied the assist for Trossard’s winner. That’s now 17 attacking returns in his last 15 outings.

Trossard, meanwhile, has scored in four of Arsenal’s last five matches.

As for Arsenal, the urge to double up on their league-best backline will be strong. Defending is Everton’s forte, attacking is not: the Toffees are 19th for goals scored this season. Ben White (£6.1m) gets the nod for now: he is Arsenal’s leading defender for shots, chances created and penalty box touches over the last six matches.

We'll cover another North London club here as well. Spurs next.

Speaking of superb goalkeeping, Ederson’s replacement Stefan Ortega (£3.6m) had such a huge half-hour that numerous media outlets have credited him as ‘Player of the Match’.

His most memorable moment came when Son Heung-min (£10.0m) provided all divided Spurs fans with a heart-in-mouth run, through on goal, similar to Randal Kolo Muani’s extra time miss in the 2022 World Cup Final. It brought a massive save from Ortega.

Set up by Brennan Johnson (£5.8m), it was the same combination earlier on when Son diverted a low cross onto Ederson. And the 22-year-old is an intriguing differential for those intending to take a Gameweek 38 punt. He’s the Spurs player with most big chances (21) this season and will travel to last-placed Sheffield United.

As revealed in our look at the high-scoring Gameweek 38 theory, Spurs specialise in final-day goal fests. It’s the fifth time in nine seasons that they’ve ended by visiting an already-relegated opponent. The others finished 4-1, 5-0, 7-1 and 5-1, alongside a couple of 5-4 and 4-2 Leicester City meetings. The Blades have broken the Premier League record for most goals conceded (101), meaning it could be a fruitful afternoon. Son is a decent captaincy contender too, even if his non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) tally over the previous seven matches had been a pitiful 1.04.

Here, things were slightly better. The South Korean international registered four attempts, two shots on target and two big chances.

vs Bur

Over the course of the season, only three midfielders – Messrs Salah, Bowen and Palmer – can better Johnson for big chances.

Pedro Porro‘s (£5.9m) threat from right-back has been much discussed this season, and it resulted in a timely goal on Saturday.

But how about Micky van de Ven (£4.4m) as a rampaging full-back?

Since Destiny Udogie (£4.9m) got injured, we’ve seen the crocked Ben Davies (£4.3m), the dropped Emerson Royal (£4.3m) and now midfielder Oliver Skipp (£4.5m) start at left-back.

In the final quarter of the game on Saturday, van de Ven was switched over to that role as Radu Dragusin (£4.2m) came on at centre-half.

He duly responded with some barnstorming runs upfield, even grabbing a goal of his own. James Maddison (£7.8m), who looked better in this match after a really poor spell of form, supplied the assist.

Just 2 shutouts from 28 league matches for Spurs.

@fplblackbox_az had some really good stats on BJ that he cited in his article.

BJ - Five goals and 11 assists is a decent return for someone who was a bit-part player for Spurs until around Gameweek 12, when regular league starts began to take place.

Since then, his 114 points is the same number as Alexander Isak (£8.4m), more than Bruno Fernandes (£8.5m, 109) and Nicolas Jackson (£7.0m, 106) and only slightly less than the 118 of heavyweight Mohamed Salah (£13.4m). In fact, over this period, only six players in the league can beat Johnson’s expected goals (xG) from open play (8.62) and his total number of big chances (18).

Porro - With a couple of goals, 10 shots and six key passes in his last seven outings, the Spaniard pays visit to a Sheffield United side that struggles to open up the opposition. The Blades have scored just 35 times this season, including five penalties.

(continued)Image
We'll stay in London and here's some Chelsea bits for you.

My favorite was from Sam @FPLFamily on Palmer.

Gameweek 7 gave us a new FPL superstar. Since Cole Palmer‘s (£6.3m) first start for Chelsea, his total of 232 points is more than any other player. In that time, he has averaged 8.3 points per start.

These stats are even more impressive when we look at his matches at Stamford Bridge. Palmer has returned 135 points in 13 fixtures at home this season. In front of his own fans, he has averaged 10.38 points per game.

Some other notes.

Chelsea face Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge on the final day of 2023/24. Bournemouth have lost three of their last four away fixtures, conceding eight goals and scoring just three. The Blues have the added incentive of potentially securing European football for the 2024/25 season after what was panning out to be a disastrous campaign.

Palmer vs NFO

Palmer had already bagged a superb assist for Mykhailo Mudryk‘s (£6.3m) opener when Nicolas Jackson (£7.0m) wasted another one of the England international’s pinpoint through-balls. Thiago Silva (£5.0m) later hit the woodwork from a Palmer free-kick, with the midfielder himself skewing wide from close range.

Mauricio Pochettino will surely be more tempted to change things around against Brighton on Wednesday, having named an unchanged side here. Raheem Sterling (£6.8m) had come off the bench to score, while Christopher Nkunku (£7.2m) replaced the ineffective Noni Madueke (£5.3m).

The inverted full-back role for Marc Cucurella (£4.9m) was also abandoned in the second half. Chelsea going back to orthodox full-backs would boost Malo Gusto‘s (£4.3m) chances of a midweek recall. He came on as a substitute here, almost scoring in injury time.

However, he’s not the only one competing for the right-back role. Reece James (£5.3m) was thrown on late in the game, looking sharp and providing the assist for Jackson’s winner.

vs BHA

Reece James (£5.3m) did what Reece James does best in Gameweek 37: briefly flicker back onto the FPL radar before disappearing again. It wasn’t injury this time but a straight red card for a petulant kick out, something that will see him sidelined for Chelsea’s next four domestic matches.

With James out of the picture, Malo Gusto‘s (£4.3m) Gameweek 38 game time prospects look rosier, if he’s fit. The Frenchman started this match, inverting into midfield like Marc Cucurella (£4.9m) on the other flank, and was often involved in Chelsea’s attacks. @ZopharFPL reckons Gusto's xMins look good.

One player whom Chelsea will be without on the final weekend is a concussed Mykhailo Mudryk (£6.3m).

Does that signal a potential start for Nkunku against Bournemouth? He was lively here after his first-half introduction, taking up Mudryk’s role on the left. (punt anyone?) Nkunku might have limited mins.

Pochettino did remind us of his lack of match sharpness after the game.

“He was suffering a lot with injuries from the beginning of the season.“He needs to now be consistent, consistent. He was so tired at the end and played only 60 minutes. I am so happy for him because he was suffering and now he scores goals and be involved with the team.“I am happy for him first and of course for the team because you are adding a player that is very important for us.” – Mauricio Pochettino on Christopher Nkunku

(continued)Image
Read 11 tweets
May 3
🧵Gameweek 36 - Useful Info Thread 🧵

As I've been doing since a few weeks, this is the best bits from @FFScout that I've found useful that will help you make decisions.

This is an information piece not an opinion one (check our pod The FPL Wire for that).

Lets begin. Don't forget. Its a Friday deadline.
Some data for match ups for you. This is for last 6 matches:

xG Ranks last 6 matches:
Top 6 - Che, New, Liv, Mci, Ars, Tot
MUN - 8th BUR - 9th
As for Brighton and Hove Albion, they are on a run of just one win from nine and the primary issue is scoring goals.
Over the last six, they have accrued a total of just 4.54 xG, scoring twice.

xGC Last 6
Top 5 - Bre, Mci, Liv, Ars, Nfo
New - 7th
Mun - 20th
Whu - 19th
Bur - 16th
(Hoping the above helps with your benching dilemma)

Since the appointment of Nuno Espirito Santo, Nottingham Forest have the fourth-best defence in the league, at least according to minutes per expected goal conceded (xGC).

Top for xGI last 6:
Palmer, Isak, Bruno, Haaland, Foden

(continued)Image
Some Fitness updates apart from today's pressers (I'll do that in the evening once today's pressers are done):

Fitness updates:
“Scott didn’t train so far this week but I expect him back in training on Saturday. Then we will have to see up to the game if he is 100 per cent available or for [only] a part in the game.
“Then also, after the game, we had an issue with Bruno, so he is a doubt for Monday but he will fight to get also in this game. We know Bruno. We will never rule him out for any game, so he is giving his best to be available.” – Erik ten Hag
“I can’t tell [you when he will be back in training]. So, he was last weekend absent. After Coventry, his issue hasn’t healed so far.” – Erik ten Hag on Marcus Rashford
Seamus Coleman (groin) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (illness/knock) have rejoined training.
“We hope on Sunday they will cross the line for West Ham. We hope. But still, we need to wait until tomorrow, Friday and Saturday to see if they can cope with the competition. What it means on the website is that they are close and they are nearly capable.” – Mauricio Pochettino on Levi Colwill and Christopher Nkunku
Gusto is still described as “continuing to undergo his rehabilitation programme”, which suggests the Gameweek 36 clash with West Ham United might also be a big ask.

(continued)Image
Now from some nice match up data from the @FFScout scout picks (article linked below):

Scout Picks:
Gabriel’s aerial threat further up the pitch has already delivered three goals. Furthermore, he’s racked up 26 shots in the box over the season, more than any other FPL defender bar Virgil van Dijk (£6.7m).

With two goals, one assist and 33 points in his last three appearances, Josko Gvardiol (£5.0m) is the in-form option as Man City entertain Wolverhampton Wanderers. Playing almost exclusively as a left-back, he’s getting into some very offensive positions

Foden - The midfielder has racked up four double-figure hauls in his last six outings and now welcomes a Wolves backline that’s managed just one clean sheet in their last 15 on the road

14 attacking returns in his last 11 appearances ensures that Kai Havertz (£7.5m) is our Arsenal midfielder of choice in Gameweek 36. You could easily argue for Bukayo Saka (£9.0m), of course, but from Gameweek 25 onwards, the German leads the way among team-mates for shots in the box, efforts on target, big chances and expected goal involvement (xGI).

The Red Devils are rock bottom for xGC in their last six, so you’d expect Olise, Eberechi Eze (£6.1m) and Jean-Philippe Mateta (£5.2m) to cause plenty of problems on Monday.

Watkins himself is making a case on merit. The Aston Villa hitman betters every other FPL forward for points on the road in 2023/24, with 10 goals and seven assists across 16 away appearances. The fixture falls just three days after Villa’s UEFA Europa Conference League semi-final first leg, which is a bit off-putting, but Watkins will be up against a Brighton and Hove Albion side who have allowed 20 big chances over the last six Gameweeks, more than any other side except Man Utd and West Ham.

Nottingham Forest are fourth for xGC since Nuno Espirito Santo took over.

Article:

(continued)fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2024/05/02/fpl…Image
Read 9 tweets
Apr 26
🧵Double Gameweek 35 - Useful Info Thread🧵

As I've been doing since a few weeks, this is the best bits from @FFScout that I've found useful that will help you make decisions. This is an information piece not an opinion one (check our pod The FPL Wire for that)

Lets begin.

City's schedule post Gameweek 35 is pretty decent. Even the fixtures in Double Gameweek 37 aren’t too bad, on Saturday lunchtime and Tuesday evening. Fatigue, and rotation, should be less of an issue. Lets start looking at this very important @Legomane_FPL chart.

(continued)Image
Some notes from the weekend and midweek action now. First up, the FA Cup.

After sticking six past Everton on Monday, Chelsea reverted to early season profligate type here. The chief culprit, you won’t be surprised to hear, was Nicolas Jackson (£6.8m). The striker does so much right elsewhere on the field but god love him, he’s just not that clinical in front of goal. Another glorious double chance went begging against City.
Palmer recovered from his early fitness scare to rack up a game-high four shots. One lovely bit of penalty box trickery led to a low effort that Stefan Ortega (£3.7m) did well to repel.

This was a decent overall display from Chelsea, minus the goals. They’ve frequently gone toe to toe with the big guns this season, taking points off all of the top seven bar Aston Villa, who they have still to meet. That’s encouragement for Double Gameweek 35, when they face the sides in fourth and fifth.

Villa btw now have Doug Luiz back from suspension.

Lets just push some more Chelsea stuff here:
Chelsea's opponents in 35 - The Villans have just one clean sheet in nine on home turf and may well have one eye on their upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League semi-final. Spurs shipped four at St James’ Park last time out, too. Over the season, they rank 17th and 12th respectively for big chances conceded.

Nicolas Jackson (£6.8m). The Senegalese striker is hardly clinical but he boasts the sixth-best minutes per expected goal (xG) figure of any forward this season (minimum 500 minutes). He is also already on 10 Premier League goals.

An individual who is severely underachieving when compared to his expected goals (xG) data, it was another poor night for Chelsea forward Nicolas Jackson (£6.8m). A couple of stand-out misses mean he’s back to having the league’s second-worst comparison between goals (10) and xG (14.30).

Ranked sixth for big chances (26), last week’s trio of returns versus Everton seemed like good preparation for the inevitable increased ownership that will come from having two doubles during the final four Gameweeks.

However, potential buyers may watch this performance and decide that Jackson is a trap. Especially when he committed a wild, reckless, studs-up challenge in the ninth minute that many feel was an obvious red card.

Chelsea’s defensive stats are pretty much the opposite of Manchester United’s.

There are some decent underlying numbers: top four for both big chances conceded and xGC, for instance.

But they’ve conceded more goals (52) than the Red Devils and recorded fewer clean sheets (six). Petrovic having a poor xGP of -5.40 is one contributing factor. All six of Chelsea’s shutouts have been against bottom-half teams, so the fixtures against Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest may be key. Brighton and Hove Albion have only scored four goals in their last seven outings, meanwhile, so Petrovic owners will be hoping that drought is still ongoing by the time Double Gameweek 37 rolls around.

(continued)Image
Lets push some City stuff here now. Lot of Foden playing centrally and loving it talk.

Post the brace yesterday, some quotes:

“Now, Phil gets trusted to play centrally. Even today we didn’t play with any wingers, so we both played a little centrally and had to go on the wings sometimes.” – Kevin De Bruyne on Phil Foden

“I have always said that I see myself centrally. This year I have moved inside and it has helped me massively. I enjoy it in the middle. It’s where I want to be. At the moment, I am just enjoying my football and playing with freedom.” – Phil Foden

Kyle Walker (£5.3m) provided two assists at the Amex, helping him rack up 14 points, his best return of the season so far.
City didn’t play with proper wingers on Thursday and the England full-back was one of the main beneficiaries, with Bernardo Silva’s (£6.2m) roaming role creating space for him to exploit.
Guardiola referenced Nottingham Forest’s speed in his post-match presser, so you’d expect Walker to feature again on Sunday to help deal with that threat.

FA Cup vs Chelsea:
There were a few tactical notes from the match from a City perspective.
Despite John Stones (£5.3m) being in the starting XI, it was still Akanji who was inverting into midfield. He ended up getting forward to create three chances, while Stones was hooked at the break.
With Haaland out, Julian Alvarez (£6.4m) leading the line and Bernardo Silva (£6.2m) on the right, Guardiola went with both De Bruyne and Phil Foden (£8.2m) in the two central attacking midfield roles.

It was an exciting prospect on paper but we didn’t really see the best of either player. Foden registered just one shot all game.

In truth, this wasn’t really the match to make sweeping judgements of City. They were visibly pooped after their midweek exertions against Madrid, which occurred less than 72 hours earlier.Image
Read 10 tweets
Apr 12
🧵Gameweek 33 - Useful Info Thread🧵

As I've been doing since a few weeks, this is the best bits from @FFScout that I've found useful that will help you make decisions. This is an information piece not an opinion one.

Lets begin.

Lets start with Dougie Luiz getting 10 yellows and that Villa defence.

Douglas Luiz (£5.6m) fell at the final hurdle, being booked for the 10th time this season in the 97th minute of Aston Villa’s 32nd league fixture. He just needed to get through the final seconds of Saturday’s match and he was in the clear. As it happens, he’ll now be banned for Gameweeks 33 and 34.

Villa had only just got John McGinn (£5.3m) back from a suspension, with the centre of their midfield looking light. It’s surely contributed to some porous defensive displays of late. Since Boubacar Kamara (£5.0m) suffered his season-ending injury, for example, Villa are in the bottom five for both expected goals conceded and actual goals shipped. This is good for Arsenal this week.

(continued)Image
I did a pod this morning for @TheFPLWire where I pulled data from the @FFScout members area for the last 6 matches for Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs.

Look at Kai's numbers (and his overperformance). Look at Diaz. Look at BJ.

Have a look and if you want to become a member, click here ->

Watch pod here (45 min solo ramble) ->

(continued)bit.ly/FPLWIRE
youtube.com/live/ph8EI8SDL…Image
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Image
Some notes from Gameweek 32:

Spurs defence:
For Porro, he has delivered consistently impressive goal threat numbers all season, without the points to show for it. Before Sunday, he was without a goal to his name, despite racking up 41 shots in Gameweeks 1-31, at least ten more than any other FPL defender. There were plenty of other elements to like about his performance, too, not least the fact he took all of Spurs’ corners right up until Giovani Lo Celso’s (£4.8m) introduction on 76 minutes.
“It’s something we’ve been working on with the guys. Micky [van de Ven] can strike a ball and Pedro [Porro] certainly can. It just needs a bit of composure. Micky’s was outstanding.” – Ange Postecoglou
“I love defenders scoring. We were pushing them into those areas.” – Ange Postecoglou

Spurs have kept just two clean sheets in their last 22 Premier League fixtures.Image
Read 15 tweets
Mar 15
🧵FPL Gameweek 29 - Important Info Thread🧵

I've started doing this thread on Fridays which handpicks & compiles a mountain of relevant information from @FFScout who I'm a compulsive reader of.

Lets begin. We'll obviously focus on the teams in play in Gameweek 29.

Brentford
- It’s just one clean sheet in 18 matches for Brentford but this was a much better defensive display, with Bukayo Saka (£9.2m) in particular well shackled. Arsenal had only one ‘big chance’ all game: that was Kai Havertz‘s (£7.1m) late winner.
- Scout Picks - Sergio Reguilon (£4.4m) is our go-to Brentford defender if he’s fit. He’s registered seven shots and six chances created in his six starts for the Bees, decent stats for a defender – especially considering he’s faced Manchester City twice and Liverpool in those games. He’s been on set plays, too.

(continued)Image
- There’s an argument for Yoane Wissa (£5.6m) over Toney. Ask any Brentford fan and they’re likely to be lukewarm on the latter’s recent performances and more enthusiastic about Wissa’s. The cheaper Bees forward has scored in each of his last three runouts, while Toney has blanked. Wissa also outshot Toney 8-2 over their last two starts together (ludicrously small sample siren: activated). Still, the 90-minute man on penalties and direct free-kicks will take some opposing. (LR comment - If I had one instinctive upside Free Hit suggestion this week, it is Wissa. Get him).
- Lot of plumping and doubling up on Brentford defence. Are you sure?
No team except Sheffield United have conceded more goals than the Bees (38) from Gameweek 12 onwards, with injuries to Ben Mee (£4.8m), Ethan Pinnock (£4.5m), Rico Henry (£4.3m) and Aaron Hickey (£4.4m) disrupting their flow. They’ve also kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 attempts.

The Tricky Trees visit Kenilworth Road on Saturday, colliding with a Hatters rearguard that has kept just two clean sheets all season. Rob Edwards’ side, who will be without several key defenders, have also allowed 26 big chances over their last six matches, more than any other top-flight club.

(continued)Image
Our resident legend @FPLCruyff74 is on Free Hit. Here's some of his thoughts (Full article here -> )

- The loss of Christian Norgaard (£5.3m) to injury is a major blow for Brentford on Saturday. According to Opta, he’s won more tackles (73) than any team-mate and made the third-highest number of interceptions (46) in the Premier League this season.

In the two matches he’s missed in 2023/24, The Bees have lost on both occasions, conceding four times to Nottingham Forest and Brighton and Hove Albion.

There might even be a case to punt on Nathan Collins (£4.5m) as an alternative. That’s because Burnley have shipped 14 goals from set plays (excluding penalties) so far this season, the second worst record of any top-flight side – three behind Nottingham Forest.

Brentford’s potency from dead-ball situations has been an important weapon since their promotion from the Championship. After Everton, they are the next most effective team in the Premier League from set-pieces, according to their expected goals (xG) of 12.08. Therefore, I prefer Reguilon and Collins to Mark Flekken (£4.5m), another popular Free Hit pick.

In the aftermath of Wednesday’s 4-3 loss at Bournemouth, Rob Edwards suggested he’d prioritise defensive solidity moving forward (see below), I’m just not sure the Hatters have the personnel to do that right now, given their mounting injury list.

“We played some really good football, we do always look like we can score goals in this league and that’s normally for teams in our position the hardest thing. We looked a threat, playing some really good stuff, the plan was working well and the bit for us now is the other end.

“That’s why we’re in the position we’re in, obviously we concede too many goals. If you look at our goals for, it’s probably a good way up the league, so it’s quite clear where we need to try and improve and fix up. That’s got to be a big area of our focus now.” – Rob Edwards

Tom also shared a pretty cool defender table which you can view below.

(continued)fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2024/03/15/tom…Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 8
🧵Useful FPL Nuggets🧵

So I'm a compulsive reader of all articles on @FFScout
and tend to save useful info in my notes which I use before my decision making and before I pod. Been doing this for years so I thought why not post these bits as a thread on here.

Here goes. (continued)Image
First up all the info from Luton Town and Bournemouth.

- Morris - the striker has been directly involved in nine goals (five goals, four assists) across his last nine Premier League games. Luton Town had 2.8 xG vs Villa. Morris 0.83 xGI vs AVL.

- Having left Turf Moor with three points, it sets Bournemouth up well for four successive home games against Sheffield United, Luton Town, Everton and Crystal Palace. It is worth noting, however, Bournemouth have collected fewer points at home than they have on the road this season, with just 13 goals scored in front of their own fans.

- Solanke has been involved in 50% of all Bournemouth goals this season. Morris has been involved in 56% of all Luton Town goals this season.

(continued)Image
Some Solanke information. First up here's the full quote on him from Iraola attached.

(continued) Image
Read 13 tweets

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