🧵Gameweek 38 - Important Info Thread🧵

As we move into the final Gameweek of the season, here's my final 'information thread' of the season. I basically compile a lot of relevant useful information that I come across on @FFScout and it is more information to arm you to make your decisions rather than opinion.

Most of my opinion I cite on our pod but I wonder if I should start doing more of that on here? And give me honest feedback on this 'information thread' too and whether you'd like me to continue next season? It does take a fair amount of work. And if you like what you read, do share/ RT.

Anyway, lets begin. I've grouped things team wise to make it a better read. I'll do team news from Friday at the end of the thread.

Lets begin with Manchester City.

We'll begin with my favorite stat. This one's a banger.

If we’re talking City attackers, do we have to include Josko Gvardiol (£5.1m) now? A left winger masquerading as a full-back, he’s even level with Foden for penalty box touches and big chances in his last six matches.

Man City are entering the final day two points ahead of Arsenal. Their eighth win in a row, Pep Guardiola’s relentless champions are now unbeaten in 22 league outings.

Consequently, Haaland seems to have secured another Golden Boot and Aston Villa are now guaranteed Champions League football for 2024/25.

Yet Josko Gvardiol (£5.1m) bagged more than twice that amount. No attacking achievements this time as he ‘just’ claimed a clean sheet but it means he’s gifted 27 Gameweek points to over 50% of the top 100k.

In fact, the Croatian defender did chalk up one big chance when reaching a cross with his back-post volley. Had it been kept low, he would’ve followed Saturday’s heroic brace with a third strike of this Gameweek.

Managers will instead need to be content with four goals, two assists and four successful shut-outs in his last six league games. At least one return in all of the half-dozen, averaging 11.0 points each time. Elsewhere, Phil Foden (£8.5m) received a booking but forced an excellent save from Guglielmo Vicario (£5.3m). Kevin De Bruyne (£10.6m) was also denied, before later assisting Haaland’s opener. He appeared to be hurt at one point but quickly came back on.

vs Fulham

Pep loves a counternarrative.

“No, when we signed him, [I didn’t expect goals]. Some headers and set pieces, yes.

“Second half he didn’t play good, he lost a lot of balls. For defenders, the most important thing is to play safe. Play so simple, that’s the most difficult thing.

“After he scores goals, it’s more than welcome, but it’s not his job.” – Pep Guardiola on Josko Gvardiol

“Another two goals, happy. Of course a clean sheet, happy as well.

“We were discussing about me taking the penalty and of course, I would like to take it. But we know who the taker is and he takes. So in the end it was Julian and I am happy for him to score a goal.” – Josko Gvardiol

Gvardiol’s second goal arrived from a set piece but his first was yet another example of his open-play threat, a one-two with Kevin De Bruyne (£10.6m) ending with a superbly taken strike.

That was one of seven chances created by De Bruyne, who was unfortunate to emerge with just one assist. Haaland wasted the best of the rest: after the four-goal salvo of last weekend, it was Double Gameweek 25 Haaland who made an appearance in west London.

Phil Foden (£8.5m) trundled in City’s second goal, his sixth strike in four starts.

West Ham travel to Manchester City on the final day, having conceded 10 goals in their past two away trips.

West Ham United, on the other hand, haven’t shut out a single team since Gameweek 21. The Hammers are in the bottom three for goals conceded, expected goals conceded (xGC) and big chances conceded since then.

(continued) Lets talk about Arsenal next.

Mikel Arteta was able to name the same starting XI for the fourth match in a row.

Mikel Arteta’s side have now kept 11 clean sheets in top-flight away matches this season, at least five more than any other club. Manchester City, for example, have only managed six so far.

“We started the game really well and were dominant. We scored the goal and I think the goal led to slightly bad things because we started to play too safe, too sideways, too backwards with not enough structure. We started to give the ball away in good areas and that is a danger against them. But we defended well and didn’t concede too much.” – Mikel Arteta

Kai Havertz (£7.5m) supplied the assist for Trossard’s winner. That’s now 17 attacking returns in his last 15 outings.

Trossard, meanwhile, has scored in four of Arsenal’s last five matches.

As for Arsenal, the urge to double up on their league-best backline will be strong. Defending is Everton’s forte, attacking is not: the Toffees are 19th for goals scored this season. Ben White (£6.1m) gets the nod for now: he is Arsenal’s leading defender for shots, chances created and penalty box touches over the last six matches.

We'll cover another North London club here as well. Spurs next.

Speaking of superb goalkeeping, Ederson’s replacement Stefan Ortega (£3.6m) had such a huge half-hour that numerous media outlets have credited him as ‘Player of the Match’.

His most memorable moment came when Son Heung-min (£10.0m) provided all divided Spurs fans with a heart-in-mouth run, through on goal, similar to Randal Kolo Muani’s extra time miss in the 2022 World Cup Final. It brought a massive save from Ortega.

Set up by Brennan Johnson (£5.8m), it was the same combination earlier on when Son diverted a low cross onto Ederson. And the 22-year-old is an intriguing differential for those intending to take a Gameweek 38 punt. He’s the Spurs player with most big chances (21) this season and will travel to last-placed Sheffield United.

As revealed in our look at the high-scoring Gameweek 38 theory, Spurs specialise in final-day goal fests. It’s the fifth time in nine seasons that they’ve ended by visiting an already-relegated opponent. The others finished 4-1, 5-0, 7-1 and 5-1, alongside a couple of 5-4 and 4-2 Leicester City meetings. The Blades have broken the Premier League record for most goals conceded (101), meaning it could be a fruitful afternoon. Son is a decent captaincy contender too, even if his non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) tally over the previous seven matches had been a pitiful 1.04.

Here, things were slightly better. The South Korean international registered four attempts, two shots on target and two big chances.

vs Bur

Over the course of the season, only three midfielders – Messrs Salah, Bowen and Palmer – can better Johnson for big chances.

Pedro Porro‘s (£5.9m) threat from right-back has been much discussed this season, and it resulted in a timely goal on Saturday.

But how about Micky van de Ven (£4.4m) as a rampaging full-back?

Since Destiny Udogie (£4.9m) got injured, we’ve seen the crocked Ben Davies (£4.3m), the dropped Emerson Royal (£4.3m) and now midfielder Oliver Skipp (£4.5m) start at left-back.

In the final quarter of the game on Saturday, van de Ven was switched over to that role as Radu Dragusin (£4.2m) came on at centre-half.

He duly responded with some barnstorming runs upfield, even grabbing a goal of his own. James Maddison (£7.8m), who looked better in this match after a really poor spell of form, supplied the assist.

Just 2 shutouts from 28 league matches for Spurs.

@fplblackbox_az had some really good stats on BJ that he cited in his article.

BJ - Five goals and 11 assists is a decent return for someone who was a bit-part player for Spurs until around Gameweek 12, when regular league starts began to take place.

Since then, his 114 points is the same number as Alexander Isak (£8.4m), more than Bruno Fernandes (£8.5m, 109) and Nicolas Jackson (£7.0m, 106) and only slightly less than the 118 of heavyweight Mohamed Salah (£13.4m). In fact, over this period, only six players in the league can beat Johnson’s expected goals (xG) from open play (8.62) and his total number of big chances (18).

Porro - With a couple of goals, 10 shots and six key passes in his last seven outings, the Spaniard pays visit to a Sheffield United side that struggles to open up the opposition. The Blades have scored just 35 times this season, including five penalties.

(continued)

🧵Gameweek 36 - Useful Info Thread 🧵

As I've been doing since a few weeks, this is the best bits from @FFScout that I've found useful that will help you make decisions.

This is an information piece not an opinion one (check our pod The FPL Wire for that).

Lets begin. Don't forget. Its a Friday deadline.
Some data for match ups for you. This is for last 6 matches:

xG Ranks last 6 matches:
Top 6 - Che, New, Liv, Mci, Ars, Tot
MUN - 8th BUR - 9th
As for Brighton and Hove Albion, they are on a run of just one win from nine and the primary issue is scoring goals.
Over the last six, they have accrued a total of just 4.54 xG, scoring twice.

xGC Last 6
Top 5 - Bre, Mci, Liv, Ars, Nfo
New - 7th
Mun - 20th
Whu - 19th
Bur - 16th
(Hoping the above helps with your benching dilemma)

Since the appointment of Nuno Espirito Santo, Nottingham Forest have the fourth-best defence in the league, at least according to minutes per expected goal conceded (xGC).

Top for xGI last 6:
Palmer, Isak, Bruno, Haaland, Foden

(continued) Some Fitness updates apart from today's pressers (I'll do that in the evening once today's pressers are done):

Fitness updates:
“Scott didn’t train so far this week but I expect him back in training on Saturday. Then we will have to see up to the game if he is 100 per cent available or for [only] a part in the game.
“Then also, after the game, we had an issue with Bruno, so he is a doubt for Monday but he will fight to get also in this game. We know Bruno. We will never rule him out for any game, so he is giving his best to be available.” – Erik ten Hag
“I can’t tell [you when he will be back in training]. So, he was last weekend absent. After Coventry, his issue hasn’t healed so far.” – Erik ten Hag on Marcus Rashford
Seamus Coleman (groin) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (illness/knock) have rejoined training.
“We hope on Sunday they will cross the line for West Ham. We hope. But still, we need to wait until tomorrow, Friday and Saturday to see if they can cope with the competition. What it means on the website is that they are close and they are nearly capable.” – Mauricio Pochettino on Levi Colwill and Christopher Nkunku
Gusto is still described as “continuing to undergo his rehabilitation programme”, which suggests the Gameweek 36 clash with West Ham United might also be a big ask.

(continued)

🧵Double Gameweek 35 - Useful Info Thread🧵

As I've been doing since a few weeks, this is the best bits from @FFScout that I've found useful that will help you make decisions. This is an information piece not an opinion one (check our pod The FPL Wire for that)

Lets begin.

City's schedule post Gameweek 35 is pretty decent. Even the fixtures in Double Gameweek 37 aren’t too bad, on Saturday lunchtime and Tuesday evening. Fatigue, and rotation, should be less of an issue. Lets start looking at this very important @Legomane_FPL chart.

(continued) Some notes from the weekend and midweek action now. First up, the FA Cup.

After sticking six past Everton on Monday, Chelsea reverted to early season profligate type here. The chief culprit, you won’t be surprised to hear, was Nicolas Jackson (£6.8m). The striker does so much right elsewhere on the field but god love him, he’s just not that clinical in front of goal. Another glorious double chance went begging against City.
Palmer recovered from his early fitness scare to rack up a game-high four shots. One lovely bit of penalty box trickery led to a low effort that Stefan Ortega (£3.7m) did well to repel.

This was a decent overall display from Chelsea, minus the goals. They’ve frequently gone toe to toe with the big guns this season, taking points off all of the top seven bar Aston Villa, who they have still to meet. That’s encouragement for Double Gameweek 35, when they face the sides in fourth and fifth.

Villa btw now have Doug Luiz back from suspension.

Lets just push some more Chelsea stuff here:
Chelsea's opponents in 35 - The Villans have just one clean sheet in nine on home turf and may well have one eye on their upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League semi-final. Spurs shipped four at St James’ Park last time out, too. Over the season, they rank 17th and 12th respectively for big chances conceded.

Nicolas Jackson (£6.8m). The Senegalese striker is hardly clinical but he boasts the sixth-best minutes per expected goal (xG) figure of any forward this season (minimum 500 minutes). He is also already on 10 Premier League goals.

An individual who is severely underachieving when compared to his expected goals (xG) data, it was another poor night for Chelsea forward Nicolas Jackson (£6.8m). A couple of stand-out misses mean he’s back to having the league’s second-worst comparison between goals (10) and xG (14.30).

Ranked sixth for big chances (26), last week’s trio of returns versus Everton seemed like good preparation for the inevitable increased ownership that will come from having two doubles during the final four Gameweeks.

However, potential buyers may watch this performance and decide that Jackson is a trap. Especially when he committed a wild, reckless, studs-up challenge in the ninth minute that many feel was an obvious red card.

Chelsea’s defensive stats are pretty much the opposite of Manchester United’s.

There are some decent underlying numbers: top four for both big chances conceded and xGC, for instance.

But they’ve conceded more goals (52) than the Red Devils and recorded fewer clean sheets (six). Petrovic having a poor xGP of -5.40 is one contributing factor. All six of Chelsea’s shutouts have been against bottom-half teams, so the fixtures against Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest may be key. Brighton and Hove Albion have only scored four goals in their last seven outings, meanwhile, so Petrovic owners will be hoping that drought is still ongoing by the time Double Gameweek 37 rolls around.

(continued)

🧵Gameweek 33 - Useful Info Thread🧵

As I've been doing since a few weeks, this is the best bits from @FFScout that I've found useful that will help you make decisions. This is an information piece not an opinion one.

Lets begin.

Lets start with Dougie Luiz getting 10 yellows and that Villa defence.

Douglas Luiz (£5.6m) fell at the final hurdle, being booked for the 10th time this season in the 97th minute of Aston Villa’s 32nd league fixture. He just needed to get through the final seconds of Saturday’s match and he was in the clear. As it happens, he’ll now be banned for Gameweeks 33 and 34.

Villa had only just got John McGinn (£5.3m) back from a suspension, with the centre of their midfield looking light. It’s surely contributed to some porous defensive displays of late. Since Boubacar Kamara (£5.0m) suffered his season-ending injury, for example, Villa are in the bottom five for both expected goals conceded and actual goals shipped. This is good for Arsenal this week.

(continued) I did a pod this morning for @TheFPLWire where I pulled data from the @FFScout members area for the last 6 matches for Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs.

Look at Kai's numbers (and his overperformance). Look at Diaz. Look at BJ.

Have a look and if you want to become a member, click here ->

Watch pod here (45 min solo ramble) ->

(continued)bit.ly/FPLWIRE
youtube.com/live/ph8EI8SDL…

🧵FPL Gameweek 29 - Important Info Thread🧵

I've started doing this thread on Fridays which handpicks & compiles a mountain of relevant information from @FFScout who I'm a compulsive reader of.

Lets begin. We'll obviously focus on the teams in play in Gameweek 29.

Brentford
- It’s just one clean sheet in 18 matches for Brentford but this was a much better defensive display, with Bukayo Saka (£9.2m) in particular well shackled. Arsenal had only one ‘big chance’ all game: that was Kai Havertz‘s (£7.1m) late winner.
- Scout Picks - Sergio Reguilon (£4.4m) is our go-to Brentford defender if he’s fit. He’s registered seven shots and six chances created in his six starts for the Bees, decent stats for a defender – especially considering he’s faced Manchester City twice and Liverpool in those games. He’s been on set plays, too.

(continued) - There’s an argument for Yoane Wissa (£5.6m) over Toney. Ask any Brentford fan and they’re likely to be lukewarm on the latter’s recent performances and more enthusiastic about Wissa’s. The cheaper Bees forward has scored in each of his last three runouts, while Toney has blanked. Wissa also outshot Toney 8-2 over their last two starts together (ludicrously small sample siren: activated). Still, the 90-minute man on penalties and direct free-kicks will take some opposing. (LR comment - If I had one instinctive upside Free Hit suggestion this week, it is Wissa. Get him).
- Lot of plumping and doubling up on Brentford defence. Are you sure?
No team except Sheffield United have conceded more goals than the Bees (38) from Gameweek 12 onwards, with injuries to Ben Mee (£4.8m), Ethan Pinnock (£4.5m), Rico Henry (£4.3m) and Aaron Hickey (£4.4m) disrupting their flow. They’ve also kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 attempts.

The Tricky Trees visit Kenilworth Road on Saturday, colliding with a Hatters rearguard that has kept just two clean sheets all season. Rob Edwards’ side, who will be without several key defenders, have also allowed 26 big chances over their last six matches, more than any other top-flight club.

(continued)

🧵Useful FPL Nuggets🧵

So I'm a compulsive reader of all articles on @FFScout
and tend to save useful info in my notes which I use before my decision making and before I pod. Been doing this for years so I thought why not post these bits as a thread on here.

Here goes. (continued) First up all the info from Luton Town and Bournemouth.

- Morris - the striker has been directly involved in nine goals (five goals, four assists) across his last nine Premier League games. Luton Town had 2.8 xG vs Villa. Morris 0.83 xGI vs AVL.

- Having left Turf Moor with three points, it sets Bournemouth up well for four successive home games against Sheffield United, Luton Town, Everton and Crystal Palace. It is worth noting, however, Bournemouth have collected fewer points at home than they have on the road this season, with just 13 goals scored in front of their own fans.

- Solanke has been involved in 50% of all Bournemouth goals this season. Morris has been involved in 56% of all Luton Town goals this season.

(continued)

Thought Thread

I never really indulge in the 'Content Creator' debate ever.

Now that the dust has settled and I think I'm out of my 'reactionary' phase, first things first as a GW26 Wildcarder and a Manchester United fan is to admit that my pants were pulled down.

(continued) I simply need to take my walk of shame and move on. All you can really say is 'Its football innit' and 'Its FPL innit'. If you really ask me, an event like Yesterday's is what actually makes the sport and the game of FPL fun (and unpredictable).

(continued)

Morning musings

Just where I am with my team and what I'm contemplating. Got 1FT and 3.4M itb. Option 1 which I was set on earlier is save and then get Darwin and Mo for KdB and Mitro. Probably also do Doherty to Reece or any defender worth 6M.

(continued) I'm open to even doing Estu in and field 10 but Tarko/ Badiashile/Reece all options. Now going Darwin means atm missing out on Trent.

Other route is doing Mitro to Felix (this week), KdB to Mo next week and Shaw to Trent (can't afford Doc to Trent).

(continued)

Just some musings in terms with where I am with my team.

Bruno to Saka looks very likely for me and then watch Liverpool closely and jump. Intrigued by what VVD and Jota (both in training) coming back do to that team. Likely will eventually switch KdB for Mo and (cont) Mitro for Darwin. Jota is someone I'll be looking at closely too.

I'm not closed minded to Liverpool. Salah with just 5 shots between GW 19-22 is a worry but I'll watch some extended highlights for the last 5 for pool tonight an assess. That leaves me with 1-2 additional (cont)

*Musings - Of Templates, 'Being Behind' and 'Being Different'*

Lot of chatter around the template, what FPL is these days and people perceiving they are already behind and playing catch up.

Lets address the 'perception of being behind on points' first.

(continued) Firstly, lets understand that you aren't that behind on points. Don't let that rank fool you. I am currently ranked 3.1 million and I am 17 points behind 1 million and 35 points behind 100k. That is ONLY about 1 or 2 'events' leading to that points gap. See image.

(continued)

THREAD

Here's some weirdly sample sized amusing data for you.

Number of goals and goals/ game since Fernandes' debut for Man United until Ronaldo's first game against Newcastle:

MCI - 130 (2.36)
MUN - 110 (2)
LIV - 103 (1.87)
TOT - 94 (1.7)
CHE - 92 (1.67)
ARS - 79 (1.44) It's better to compare apples to apples hence the goals/ game averages mentioned. Goals and Goals/ game last season:

MCI - 99 (2.60)
LIV - 94 (2.48)
CHE - 76 (2)
TOT - 69 (1.82)
ARS - 61 (1.6)
MUN - 57 (1.5)

TOT goals/game under Conte:
2.22 goals/game

Siu.

*FPL Musings*

I've been playing this game for a long time.

The rank falls and gains I've seen on my timeline this week are quite a sight. For those managers that have their ML/ OR rank dreams crushed in a single Gameweek (or in the past 2-3 GWs), I just want to say (cont) that we just have to learn to take these punches on the chin. The way FPL is growing, more and more managers are 'zoned in' and it's only going to get tougher. Especially, if you're a part of a Twitter community like this, more often than not, you'll feel like you're not (cont)

📜A Random list of Relevant FPL things📜

When I read articles or consume content, I tend to take notes on my phone. Here's just a random list of things from my notes:
- Doherty playing a little withdrawn because of Regs. He's much more advanced when Sess starts. 5 out..(cont) ..of Spurs' remaining 9 games is against teams 13th or below.
- Jevans Fofana Justin Castagne equals new Lei backline but see if they win/lose in Europe and go for them accordingly in 33.
- Leicester going to be underpriced next season imo because of injuries this season.

(cont)

FPL Musings:
- Arsenal have a real good thing going at the moment. Seen very few teams dominate this Guardiola team and they did it comfortably. Problem is they are losing their best midfielder to AFCON and I think this will hurt the team defensively. Irrespective, I think (cont) ...Martinelli and Saka are insane value at their price and if they double against Wolves in 22 I might be tempted to bring Gabby in (already on Saka). The problem is it is a fine balancing act here because they blank in 25 and 27. If they do double and if you can manage (cont)

Transfer reasonings.

Just stating what I did this Gameweek. Had 2 frees. Thought long and hard. Eventually ended up doing Duffy + Maupay -> Alonso + Locadia (4.4).

I had upto 5.1M for a striker and could have gone Broja but fancied parking the funds once I looked at (cont) potential future moves. I was 0.1M short of Duffy + Foden -> Alonso + Gundo. But Foden vs Gundo was something I've been debating a lot. Gundo has played 4 90 mins in a row. I wonder if he gets 60-70 vs villa. IF he does, he plays Watford. If he plays 90 vs Villa, (cont)

Just a thread of some interesting data tweets from me this week.

https://twitter.com/lateriser12/status/1460540570972086274?s=20

https://twitter.com/lateriser12/status/1461315586936299528?s=20

*Musings*
FPL - Let me tell.

The game and the community growing by the day.
Used to be a little village with cobbled streets and hay.
Gone big time now – a multi-ethnic-metropolitan-city. We’ve even got our own rock cult piggy (@pig_fpl).

(cont) Back in the day we had two buildings that crossed five floors.
Nothing more guarded than the top secret FPL Tower doors.
Complex pricing algorithms. Calculations that were WILD.
No changes, no exceptions, unless of course, Mark Sutherns dialled (@FFScout_Mark).

(cont)

Why touchmaps are not always a good indicator of the game and should be used carefully (especially for strikers).

What this shows is the defensive work he did but in possession and when in attack, Kane was very much occupying the spaces a CF would. Obviously the (cont)

https://twitter.com/FPLGOAT7/status/1457641205425221632

final ball was missing against Everton but Conte is a good coach and my main take away was he was asked to be in the box every time an attack was there. All I want to know from Kane. Also, conte will appreciate the defensive work which is why he didn't get hooked and (cont)

Just want to chat some Marcus Rashford (thread)

Firstly he's crossed 20 returns in his last two seasons (wasn't on pens last season) and that was playing with an injury. It was visible how injured he was because every United fan will tell you there was a stark difference..(cont) ..in his performance once the niggles started coming. He was close to being top 5 player in the league before that. I said on the pod 2 weeks ago that if he's put the injuries behind him, he's going to play a big role in FPL. He's looked really good so far, getting sharper (cont)

*The Fuck Rank Protection Thread*

Hello. Welcome to the thread. There's a lot of conversation around "protecting rank" especially for those that are highly ranked. If that is for you, fair enough, but I insist you read on and i'm hoping to talk to your inner rebel (cont) In my opinion, every year that we continue playing this game, it gets more and more difficult to reach the upper echelons. My school of thought whenever I've entered the top 10k with a few Gameweeks to go has always been - "Fuck. I am not getting this chance in FPL again". (cont)

Just trying to think off the top of my head of the errors I've made this season and want to just document them somewhere.. First up was going without Salah in Gameweek 1. It was Salah against a newly promoted team when everyone was going to cap him. Too big a risk early..(cont) ...doors. What sucked me in was a draft I made without Mo and that enabled me to get 2 more 8.5-9M ish players with a high perceived upside. Both of them were gambles (Kai + Dele) and the wish to start off on fire was bait I took and fell into a trap. Speaking of which that(cont)