John Scott-Railton Profile picture
Mar 23, 2021 57 tweets 46 min read Read on X
So, the #SuezCanal is blocked...

Massive container ship EVER GIVEN stuck in the most awkward way possible.

Ongoing for hours. Every tug Egypt could spare appear to be trying to pull it free.

Vessel tracker: vesselfinder.com/?imo=9811000 ImageImageImage
"Is there a traffic jam?" Answer 👇
Latest update: the EVER GIVEN is... still ever-jammed across the #SuezCanal.

Also, a teeny excavator tried to help.

Thanks @rmcfadzean for surfacing the pic!
Source: instagram.com/p/CMxEKHanW62/ ImageImageImage
How soon till one of the big Dutch salvage companies shows up for an ultra-premium re-floating?

Also: forget #iceroadtruckers, marine salvage YouTube is where it's at.
Update: still stuck.

How big is this #SuezCanal plug? Ultra big.

MV #EVERGIVEN
Size: 400m long / 59m wide
Gross tonnage: 219,079
Capacity: 20,388 TEUs (20ft container equivalents).

One of the largest container ships in operation. Image
Another update: #SuezCanal waiting areas & anchorages have filled right up (I added some arrows.. look for green dashes)

For the confused: MV EVER GIVEN's operator is Evergreen Marine (evergreen-line.com) and Ever___ is a naming convention for some vessels. ImageImageImage
The pic we have comes from insta user fallenhearts17, who is on the @Maersk MV DENVER, stuck right behind MV EVER GIVEN.

Sincerely hope she posts again, Egyptian twitter shows up, or...if you know someone else on the DENVER, drop them a line!

Source: instagram.com/p/CMxEKHanW62/ ImageImage
@Maersk NARRATOR: the all-important #SuezCanal lets ships bypass the historically treacherous Horn of Africa...

... to mariners, canal officials have a historic reputation for 'appreciating' cartons of cigarettes...earning it the nickname "Marlboro Canal" Image
1:30 AM Egypt Time Update: screws are turning & helm moving but... #EVERGIVEN appears to be in the same spot.

Austin-powers-stuck-in-tunnel vibe is getting stronger.

I feel for this crew, & the tugboat operators. Nobody is getting any sleep. Image
OH NO: misfortune's unerring aim touched #EVERGIVEN's track as it departed the designated anchorage and steamed into the Canal.

(innocent, but terrible luck)
Source: vesselfinder.com/?imo=9811000 ImageImageImage
AIS data playback of the #SuezCanal the moment things went very, very wrong for the #EVERGIVEN...and then rest of global shipping.

By @TankerTrackers
Update: #EVERGIVEN still hard aground.

Reports from logistics company GAC say cause of grounding was a blackout.

This is worst-nightmare material when doing a canal transit.

Source: gac.com/news--media/ho… Image
Effect on oil prices? Yes, likely temporary says head of commodities at ING.*

(~10% of global seaborne traded oil transits Suez & SUMED . ~9% of LNG.)

So, what if this closure persists...

*Source: news.yahoo.com/oil-extends-lo… ImageImage
If for some reason the #SuezCanal blockage persists, shipping can divert.

Some oil will still flow through SUMED, but for everything else: global logistics madness. For example, US EIA calculates that a US tanker from KSA would add ~2,700 miles.

eia.gov/todayinenergy/… Image
Errata: nothing like a nit in a fun thread to bug me to no end...

I inadvertently left on the cutting room floor NARRATOR saying "AND the Cape of Good Hope."👇

No wonder I had so many chars to work with..

Also, #EverGiven is still stuck.

OUF: new pics suggest the #EVERGIVEN might have impaled the canal shore with its bulbous bow. Wild if true.

Bulbous bows look weird but modify how water flows around the bow, making ships more efficient.

Cant find credits on pics 1&2, 3 is shipbuilder Samusung Heavy Industries. ImageImageImage
HEADS UP: reports that #EVERGIVEN is partially re-floated likely premature.

Source, Lloyds List, citing vessel's technical manager Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement (BSM).

Also, quick check of AIS shows... little change.

Pics: Suez Canal Authority
…list.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1136229/Suez… ImageImageImageImage
PSA: woke to find inaccurate things circulating about the #EVERGIVEN situation.

Origin: various sources, some breathless, some from Egypt.

Spoiler: still stuck.

Are you a reporter? Vessel's technical manager BSM has a media contact. They should know.
bs-shipmanagement.com/en/media/1-med… Image
UPDATE: MV #EVERGIVEN....still ever-so-stuck.

But...

-Multiple tugboats on scene (not new)
-Dredgers clearing sand & mud around hull
-Vessel's own winches in play

Says Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement, via CNBC's @PippaStevens13 cnbc.com/2021/03/24/eve… Image
INBOX: seeking expert for media thing about #EVERGIVEN
ME: I'm not the maritime industry insider you need.

DETAIL: In college I briefly had the ambition to become a captain. Read the materials & crewed summers (e.g. tall ships) to build sea time for a license. Then moved on.
Geospatial companies have begun flexing on the #EVERGIVEN..

-@planetlabs from 23rd: visual spectrum, low-res (color)
-@capellaspace: synthetic aperture radar (grayscale)

Also: I hope someone(s) has splashed out & tasked a high resolution commercial satellite for a pass. ImageImageImageImage
It's going to be a while for the #EVERGIVEN.

Curious in meantime about what a #SuezCanal transit on a container ship looks like?

Maritime vlogger JeffHK's content is always good & this vid is an interesting watch.
NICE brief video explainer of #EVERGIVEN-stuck-ness by experts @johnkonrad & @gCaptain

UPDATE: Help on the way for #EVERGIVEN.

Dredging & heavy lift experts Boskalis have a team steaming towards the "very heavy whale on the beach"* & expect to arrive Thursday AM.

CEO: could take days, or weeks.

*Google translate...
Story: nos.nl/nieuwsuur/arti… It can take days to weeks f...This is not an Amsterdam-Rh...There are 20,000 fully load...
Good work lil digger! #EVERGIVEN's bulbous bow has emerged.

No longer impaling, its now resting the #SuezCanal's shore.

Pic: Suez Canal Authority Image
The MV MAERSK DENVER just cleared the #SuezCanal breakwater, backwards, under tow.

#SuezCanal's hardworking tugs have now removed the full northbound convoy stuck behind the #EVERGIVEN.

Some already back at anchor at designated berths (E.g. pic 3 ASIA RUBY III) ImageImageImage
NEW image from @AirbusSpace flexing their Pléiades constellation on the #SuezBLOCKED situation.

Our favorite excavator is barely visible, digging away.

Oblique shot (satellites are cool!) pointed NW is undated. Now-gone MAERSK DENVER is there, so.. probably yesterday. ImageImageImageImage
Confession: seeing it from space makes me realize I've developed feelings for...excavator #MARYANNE2

So (informally) christened because every child deserves to have Mike Mulligan and his Steam Shovel read to them.

I've found it on YouTube: ImageImageImageImage
Seeing folks sharing marine traffic rounding Africa & concluding #Suez block is the cause.

Gentle fact check:

-ships aren't that fast
-these are major shipping lanes.

..but it will become more true if #EVERGIVEN stays stuck.

Pic: Tracks from 2012 (shipmap.org) Image
My dad just texted me the best thing ever.

Also: #EVERGIVEN is still stuck If this were a children's s...
Just how big is the #Suez traffic jam? Oh.

Pic: @ESA_EO's Copernicus Sentinel 1 (SAR) Image
Curious? A Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite zips along, beaming down radio waves. Some stuff reflects them (🚢 = bling), water not so much (🌊= dark). Classic radar.

Then antenna movement is leveraged to make a longer 'synthetic' antenna, getting you detail & dimension. ImageImageImage
NEW: clearest-yet image of the #EVERGIVEN from @Maxar's WorldView-2 satellite. Image
The @Maxar image features the dredge. Doing what beyond trying to free the #EVERGIVEN's bow?

Likely opening up the not-usually-dredged & super shallow (blue) part of the canal by the vessel's bow. ImageImage
NICE: friends @bellingcat have put together a neat little OSINT synthesis!

Bonus: they found some shipping apparently turning & heading 'round Africa. bellingcat.com/resources/2021…
UPDATE: 10:45PM in the #Suez and nobody is thinking about sleep.

So many tugboats on scene. Some big. Some small. Some probably pushing, others totally tugging.

For her part, the #EVERGIVEN remains stubbornly stuck. Image
Fact checking super popular tweets claiming that 1000s of ships are suddenly going the long way around Africa.

No. Please slow down :)

-These are longstanding super-busy shipping routes (pic 3)
-Even diverted ships don't move fast enough to be there yet. ImageImageImage
UPDATE: under much tugging and pushing the #EVERGIVEN 'budged.'

By how much? Accounts varied. Led to brief optimism, reflected in the..uh soundtrack... of this video out of Egypt.

However...still stuck tonight.
UPDATE: the *big tugboats with big pull* are coming. Expected arrival: 28th (pics)

-crew in good health (no word on morale, pride)
-no reported cargo damage or pollution
-early investigation rules out mechanical failure.

Source: BSM (#EVERGIVEN's technical manager) ImageImageImage
UPDATE: tug-all-day & dredge-at-night continues.

-20,000 tons of muck sucked from around #EVERGIVEN
-Bow 'loosened'
-Stern cleared
-Rudder & propellor 'fully functional'

Per Evergreen. Video: dredger in action, via SCA #SuezBLOCKED
Let's appreciate the MASHHOUR, the dredger that must suck muck till the ship comes unstuck.

Annotated a charming Suez Canal Authority *painting* of her for you #SuezBLOCKED Image
Too embarrassed to ask about the "EVERGREEN" vs. #EVERGIVEN deal?

Evergreen Marine Corp. leases the ship. Some Evergreen container ships have the naming convention "EVER G____".

Others include: EVER GLOBE, EVER GENIUS, EVER GIFTED, EVER GENTLE, etc. Image
The moon is full & the tides are high, but Italian tug Carlo Magno is late for her date with #EVERGIVEN tonight.

Re-floating attempt postponed. Another will be made tomorrow.

(Dutch tug Alp Guard arrived on time)

Sources: SCA, vessel tracking. Pic: Reuters. Image
BREAKING: SERIOUS MOVEMENT HAPPENING NOW.

Latest AIS data shows that the #EVERGIVEN's stern has been dramatically pivoted off the #Suez Canal's Western wall.

Stern now appears to be in the channel. ImageImageImage
I count 17 tugs & support vessels on scene right now.

If you want to see how hard they have strained on the #EVERGIVEN I've included some of their tracks here.

Nice indirect illustration of how much the ship has shifted. ImageImageImageImage
Made a quick diagram. This is a big change from the initial stuck situation...but the navigation channel is still partially obstructed by the #EVERGIVEN

The #Suez Canal is not opening to vessel traffic just yet... Image
So @AP now has the “partially refloated” report about this movement.

But... I think it was the wise @mercoglianos who said "partially refloated" means still "partially stuck"

Sunup in the #Suez & things indeed look different.

Video of the #EVERGIVEN's new, less meme-worthy position.

Here's a quick & approximate illustration I made of how the crews shifted the #EVERGIVEN overnight.

Usual caveats. Image
BREAKING: the #EVERGIVEN is ON THE MOVE, headed northwards at around 3 knots (3.5mph).

What a great thing to see. ImageImage
Joyful tooting from the tugboats that freed the #EVERGIVEN.

Position update: the ship is 1.6 nm north of her stuck position...and still moving!

Video: Egyptian Cabinet.
UPDATE: much joyful tooting as the dredge says goodbye to the #EVERGIVEN.

POSITION: ship is now >2 nautical miles north of her stuck position, steaming at just under 3 knots.

Roughly a half day till she hits the Great Bitter Lake.

Video @DailyNewsEgypt
Folks, you love to see it.

Trailed by tugboats #EVERGIVEN is making 7 knots (~8mph) UNDER HER OWN POWER.

Quickly approaching Bitter Lakes.

Chance to move from the main #Suez navigation channel & let the 1st convoy of ships past. ImageImage
BREAKING: the #Suez Canal now both OPEN and MOVING.

First Southbound convoy steaming into Suez canal from Port Said anchorage.

Long-stuck southbound convoy in Great Bitter Lake also resuming transit. ImageImageImage
The #Suez Canal is moving & #EVERGIVEN is free. She's no doubt steaming towards a port for more inspections.

Time to inspect my...uh neglected inbox.

Thanks all that participated in this *epic thread.*

Where it all began👇👇

PSST: Legends at #SmitSalvage are competitive about making the best salvage YouTube videos.

I'm sure they won't disappoint for the #EVERGIVEN.

Subscribing to their channel in 3...2... youtube.com/channel/UCrL7O…
The #Suez Canal is very much moving! Convoys making the transit now.

Will still take days for the backlog to clear. Image

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More from @jsrailton

Apr 18
Report: Russia seeking to interfere in US elections & undermine support for #Ukraine.

Tactics include propaganda-laundering.👇 1/

By @selectedwisdom
blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/…
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2/ Rigged courts. Election Fraud... Sound familiar?

It's the work of another #Russian propaganda operator highlighted by @Microsoft that amplifies socially divisive narratives.
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No doubt Russia has made the same observation.

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2/ OSINT: Open Source INtelligence.

Owes its good reputation to groups like @Bellingcat that carefully VERIFY material before using it in analysis.

But today, if you find "OSINT" in the handle, there's a good chance that you will find neither verification nor analysis.
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There's more 1/
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Twitter is awash with a flood tide of falsehoods tonight.

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IMPORTANT: has @Apple recently sent you a #MercenarySpyware threat notification?

This is serious. Seek expert help.

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accessnow.org/help/
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Apr 2
WHOA: Judgments thrown out after role of hackers-for-hire revealed + Judge orders millions in damages.

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@Reuters @citizenlab 3/ Another hack-for-hire target group? US nonprofits @fightfortheftr & @freepress.

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Manifestly hasn't happened.

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