Thread by @tconnellyRTE

On the eve of the EU video summit tomorrow, plenty of briefing on vaccines, so here is a guide to some of the sentiment out there:

1/ The European Commission's new vaccine export restrictions will be discussed by leaders but the reality is that under EU trade rules the Commission has a prerogative to amend regulations in this way...

2/ There is a growing number of leaders who will voice their concern at a restrictions leading to a lose-lose tit-for-tat vaccine trade war, and reputational damage for the EU. Ireland, NL, Sweden, Belgium and others in this camp

3/ France, Italy and others believe the EU must get tougher and start looking after its own citizens by pressurising other countries - and in particular AstraZeneca - to play ball

4/ If a large number of leaders voice overt opposition - and if Germany joins that side of the argument - then it may prompt a rethink by the Commission. However, a parallel track of diplomacy may mean that that won't be necessary...

5/ There is a view is that escalating disputes over which vaccine contract is paramount, and threatening export restrictions, will not - ultimately - get more Europeans vaccinated

6/ "We are against anything that makes life more difficult instead of getting everyone vaccinated as soon as possible," says one EU diplomat.

7/ "The way to do this is diplomacy and to try and have negotiations with our friends across the Atlantic, Mexico, Canada, the UK, India to come to an agreement. This is what president @vonderleyen is doing."

8/ At the same time, the three way talks between AstraZeneca, former UK ambassador to the EU @TimBarrowFCO and the Commission could be bearing fruit

9/ The UK and Commission have just issued their first ever non-NI Protocol statement since Brexit happend on Jan 1.

10/ "We have been discussing what more we can do to ensure a reciprocally beneficial relationship between the UK and EU on COVID-19.

11/ "Given our interdependencies, we are working on specific steps we can take - in the short-, medium - and long term - to create a win-win situation and expand vaccine supply for all our citizens.

12/ "In the end, openness and global cooperation of all countries will be key to finally overcome this pandemic and ensure better preparation for meeting future challenges.

"We will continue our discussions”