Thread by @msbellows

IN DEFENSE OF JOE MANCHIN: an obnoxiously lengthy historopragmatic thread. (Also, goodbye my mentions.)

1/whotheheckknows

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1374796099802824708

There are many words we could use to describe Joe Manchin, who’s one of the senators (though, importantly, not the ONLY senator) holding up filibuster reform:

Aggravating. Obstructive. Antediluvian.

But only one adjective matters: Democrat.

Joe Manchin is a Democrat from West Virginia.

That’s fucking remarkable.

Let's talk about how fucking remarkable that is, the historical and demographic reasons why it's remarkable, and why (even when he pisses us) off we attack him at our peril.

RACIAL DEMOGRAPHICS IN W. VA.:

Here's a cool thing about West Virginia: it exists bec. it chose to break away from Virginia at the start of the Civil War and remain with the Union. Which: yay! But also?

WV stayed with the North because it had no REASON to secede: it's not cotton country, and so had almost no enslaved Black people. It was nearly all white. And it's stayed that way, bec. it wasn't a destination for later Northern migration.

Those former-Confederate states we glib, snobby Northerners consider so racist? At least they HAVE Black citizens! Virginia is 20%, Georgia 30%, Mississippi 39% Black. And when those Black heirs of freedom are allowed to vote, they can elect Democrats.

The large Black populations in Georgia (and other former slave states) give the great @staceyabrams something to work with. That's how @ossoff + @ReverendWarnock were able to win!

But Joe Manchin's WV is only 4% Black. Unlike other Southern states where Dems are making solid gains, there's no “blue Black” base in WV to work with.

And then there's the...

ECONOMY:

Let’s be blunt: West Virginia is poor. It's 49th out of the 50 states in per capita income.

And now let's look at…

EDUCATION

Here are the % of residents with bachelor's degrees in:

Massachusetts 59.67%
D.C. 44.98%
Virginia 39.59%
Georgia 32.51%

West Virginia 21.05%.

So: much of West Virginia = poor, undereducated, culturally Southern Appalachian whites clinging to a dying resource-extraction economy.

(Sorry to pile on, West Virginia. You’re beautiful! With a fascinating history! And hopefully a great future! And many, MANY wonderful, smart, liberal, diverse people! Just: not enough of them.)

Poor, undereducated, culturally Southern Appalachian whites clinging to a dying resource-extraction economy generally vote Republican, of course. In 2016, 68.5% of West Virginians voted for Trump – MORE THAN ANY OTHER STATE.

Let's repeat that: in 2016, WEST VIRGINIA WAS TRUMP'S BEST-PERFORMING STATE. He beat HRC's 26.4% share by 42 POINTS – IN THE STATE THAT KEEPS ELECTING JOE MANCHIN, A DEMOCRAT.

(And 2020 was similar: 68.62% Trump, 29.69% Biden.)

Bottom line: West Virginia is Trump Country, baby.

It's as red as red gets.

---> And yet they keep electing Joe Manchin, a Democrat. <---

(Note: not by much, though. Manchin’s last race, 2018, was a squeaker. If he hadn’t carefully calibrated his positions to appeal to his voters, he would have lost. But he DID calibrate, and so he WON...

… AND BECAUSE HE WON, DEMOCRATS NOW CONTROL THE SENATE.)

So when you’re getting righteously angry about Manchin and the filibuster, remember this: THE FILIBUSTER IS ONLY AN ISSUE BECAUSE DEMOCRATS CONTROL THE SENATE.

WHICH THEY DO, BECAUSE JOE MANCHIN SOMEHOW KNOWS HOW TO WIN STATEWIDE ELECTION IN TRUMP +40 WEST F*CKING VIRGINIA.

We owe Democratic control of the Senate as much to Manchin as we do to Ossoff or Warnock – and Manchin had a much tougher race than either of those.

Which takes us to the alternative to Manchin, which is:

MAJORITY LEADER McCONNELL.

Believe it or not, Senators sometimes switch parties.
senate.gov/artandhistory/…

And sometimes, senators switching parties swings control of the Senate from one party to another.

Wayne Morse did it in 1955. Jim Jeffords did it in 2001. Both times, one senator's defection made the gavel change hands.

Let’s do an experiment. Read this without screaming, replacing "Jeffords" with "Manchin" and "Daschle" with "McConnell”: washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/w…

Fess up: you can't do it. The idea of the gavel going back to McConnell after five months made you scream. I could hear it from here: “yaaaaaaaarrrgh!”

Which means that Manchin is indispensable to Democrats (and to your mental health).

No, you don’t like many of his positions. Neither do I. His stance on gun control is particularly frustrating today (though, again: IT'S WEST F*CKING VIRGINIA.)

But Manchin’s not a DINO; he is what he claims to be, a moderate conservative Democrat, and INFINITELY better than his eventual Republican replacement will be:

Manchin’s voted repeatedly to protect the Affordable Care Act, and to preserve funding for Planned Parenthood. He voted against the 2017 tax cuts. He’s repeatedly called for the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, and opposed most military interventions in Syria.

And, in case you didn’t near me the first 6,000 times I screamed it: HE’S KEEPING THE GAVEL AWAY FROM McCONNELL.

And for a senator in a Tump+40 state with no other statewide Democrats, whose predecessor was a former Klansman, that ain’t bad.

Years back, Daily Kos popularized a great saying: “More Democrats, Better Democrats.” I’d like both – but honestly, “more” is the more important part of that equation. If we had a twelve-seat Senate majority, we wouldn’t need Manchin…

... (or Sinema, who’s an even stronger opponent of filibuster reform, with less reason to be).

Hell, if we had even a one-seat Senate majority, we could lose Manchin or Sinema and still retain precarious control.

But we don’t. The Senate is tied. If we lose Manchin, we lose control. Think the filibuster is hampering Biden’s policy initiatives? Losing the majority is worse.

We’re not going to elect a “better Democrat” than Manchin in West Virginia. We’re not. …

But if we work to retain him in the party, AND work to elect more Democrats, we won’t need Manchin to be “better.” We’ll just enact policies around him, while benefitting from his seat to preserve our majority.

So what do we do about his (and Sinema’s, and some tepid others’) opposition to the filibuster?

We persuade and bribe them. We catch flies with honey, not vinegar. We offer carrot, not stick.

What do you think McConnell is secretly offering Manchin to become Independent and caucus with Republicans? He’s already Chairman of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee ­-- but what about chairing Appropriations, so he can bring home even more pork?

Or a new Federal Center for Clean Coal Studies (complete with billion-dollar budget) in Huntington? Or a handshake promise of a seven-figure Board seat on some conservative corporation after his next term?

I’m not suggesting Manchin is open to bribery. But whatever McConnell’s offering, Dems should make sure they’re not outbid.

And persuasion (by both constituents and colleagues) helps, too. Manchin’s not inflexible. E.g., he’s suggested he may accept a talking filibuster (which, thanks to realities of human biology, means a finite filibuster).

So take him up on it! Then see how much further he can be pushed! It’s entirely possible than Manchin would sign on to a filibuster reform that allow key legislation (esp. democracy protection) to pass, without nuking it outright.

In short: yes, call/write/telegram Manchin urging him to reform the filibuster. Write tweets and blog posts and letters to the editor. Tell him what you want, and why.

But do it with awareness that he’s indispensable, and as solid a Democrat as his home state will allow. Do it with a little kindness, not fury. Because he definitely knows the difference, and like it or not, we want him on our side.

Does this sound namby-pamby? Accommodationist? It’s really not.

It's simply keeping our eyes on the prize instead of getting distracted.

I spent the first 15 years of my career as a litigator, persuading judges and juries to agree with my side. And for the past 20 years, I’ve been a mediator, with a focus on high-emotion, high-conflict disputes. I persuade people for a living, and I’m good at what I do.

I want to advance Biden’s agenda. In particular, I want democracy-protection legislation to become law, so Republicans can’t steal the next election. I want progress even more than I want to vent my fury at Joe Manchin for doing what he feels he has to do.

So I’m saying, as a persuasion professional: please, back off a little. If we tell Manchin he’s the problem, we may have a bigger problem. If we approach him like a teammate who’s part of the solution, he’s more likely to act like a teammate and help us find the solution.

TO CONCLUDE/TL;DR:

1. God bless Joe Manchin for winning and giving us the Senate majority.
2. He’s not even the worst one on the filibuster.
3. Elect more Democrats.
4. In the meantime, honey > vinegar.

End.

Of course Biden didn't read my Twitter thread above on how to handle Manchin –
–but dang, it's almost like Biden read my Twitter thread above on how to handle Manchin! :-)

https://twitter.com/dlippman/status/1375430289313398788

I love this. Joe Biden is starting to look like the best legislative Machiavelli since LBJ.

https://twitter.com/dlippman/status/1375430289313398788

The last federal co-chair made $165,300. Nearly matches Joe M.'s $174k senatorial salary.

This isn't a bribe. She's qualified for the job. But it's Biden's way of telling Manchin that he's a valued member of the team (and, oh, btw, the team wants to nuke the filibuster, tyvm).