Thread by @zacharyhaver

PRC officials claim that the ships swarming Whitsun Reef do not belong to China's maritime militia.

But even if that were true, China can still mobilize civilian fishermen to control areas of the South China Sea.

Thread on my latest for @CCPWatch: (1/)

ccpwatch.org/single-post/ch…

(2/) Thanks to China's investments in the BeiDou satellite navigation system, nearly every civilian fishing vessel operating in the South China Sea can perform a maritime surveillance role. This is because BeiDou has built-in two-way texting capabilities.

(3/) When Chinese fishermen are carrying out their normal fishing activities, if they spot a foreign vessel, they can use BeiDou to quickly report the foreign vessel to the authorities (e.g. the CCG or PLA).

(4/) Coverage in Chinese state media and assessments from the Hainan province government confirm that authorities in the PRC see the combination of BeiDou and ordinary fishermen as a useful way of detecting and handling foreign fishing vessels.

(5/) Accordingly, provincial and central authorities have put a lot of money into BeiDou, outfitting thousands upon thousands of fishing boats with BeiDou equipment and installing BeiDou infrastructure throughout the South China Sea, achieving 100% coverage in contested areas.

(6/) Beyond BeiDou, PRC officials have said that "using normalized and sustainable civilian activity is currently the most effective means of declaring sovereignty and defending sovereignty" in the South China Sea. This means encouraging fishermen to hang out in disputed areas.

(7/) Accordingly, authorities have worked to upgrade Hainan's fishing fleets, funding hundreds of new steel-hulled fishing vessels, which assumedly help the fishermen operate further from shore for longer periods of time in areas like the Spratly Islands.

(8/) They have also discussed using subsidies, tax benefits, law enforcement protection, militia status, and other benefits to incentivize private enterprises to operate fishing boats in the South China Sea to function as a "first line" of defense.

(9/) And finally, authorities are working with private companies to develop aquaculture in the South China Sea, including at Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands, as a way to maintain a continuous civilian presence in the area.

(10/) So basically, even if the ships at Whitsun Reef do not belong to China's maritime militia, these vessels are still likely swarming the area on orders from Beijing.

Also: just in case the final tweet in this thread was unclear. Not denying the militia status of the ships at Whitsun. I'm saying that, regardless of formal PAFMM membership, there's basically no such thing as an "innocent" PRC fishing boat in the SCS, esp. the Spratlys.