Daniel Cheung Profile picture
Mar 27, 2021 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
$OHM has the highest potential of the non-pegged stablecoins to 5x within a month.

It trades at a significant discount to peers despite having a similar multi-billion $ TAM, intelligent token design, and backing from elite investors.

Behold the path to Mount Olympus.

👇 Image
Ethereum is dollarizing with traditional stablecoins accounting for ~60% of daily txns.

This reliance on the dollar is concerning and introduces regulatory risk that borders systemic.

$OHM aims to restore Ethereum's monetary independence and the potential TAM is easily>$50bn.
Just like how central banks manage their currencies using reserve assets (i.e USD, Gold, etc), Olympus DAO manages $OHM using reserve assets.

$OHM ultimately will stabilize against a basket of assets making up its treasury. Image
Initially OHM will be backed solely by DAI which is considered its intrinsic value.

This serves as a price floor on OHM, but not a peg.
Olympus DAO builds its treasury in 3 ways:

1) Through OHM market operations (buying and selling OHM)

2) Through putting its treasury assets to work in DeFi (e.g depositing its DAI into Rari to generate yield).

3) Bonds
Olympus DAO stabilizes OHM versus its treasury through the following:

When OHM trades above 1 DAI Olympus DAO sells OHM for DAI.

When OHM trades below 1 DAI Olympus DAO sells DAI for OHM.

In each case Olympus DAO earns a profit. Image
Due to strong demand from whales, the price of $OHM is currently well above 1 DAI.

The price will eventually decrease when the sales contract deploys.

However by staking $OHM you can avoid this price decrease through protocol profits.

In other words higher OHM price = good. Image
The value accrual for $OHM stakers is INSANE.

At current prices, when the Sales contract deploys the protocol should be minting millions of $$ worth of $OHM to stakers each epoch.

Because the $OHM price is so high above 1 DAI each $OHM sale will produce near 100% profit margin Image
But $OHM sales are just the beginning.

Olympus DAO also accumulates reserve assets through Bonds.
Essentially Bonds allow OHM-DAI LP’s to trade their LP shares with the protocol for discounted OHM at a later date.

This both incentivizes liquidity in the short-term, and allows the Olympus DAO to accumulate OHM liquidity in the long-term. Image
By acquiring the LP shares, the protocol not only earns fees from $OHM trading, but also gains the ability to manage its own liquidity.

This idea of protocol managed liquidity is why VCs pumped Fei Protocol to a $200 million pre-launch valuation.

It’s exciting to say the least.
To conclude, $OHM should be trading at least in-line, if not at a premium to peers given similar growth potential and strong value accrual.

This implies ~5x from here:

$OHM = ~$35mm Mkt Cap

$BANK = ~$70mm Mkt Cap

$TRIBE = $200mm Mkt Cap

$FLX = $250mm Mkt Cap (my estimate) Image
Messari just put out a great report on non-pegged stablecoins if you want to learn more.

Check it out.

messari.io/article/the-ar…
Btw if you like to copy trade elite investors, notable OHM backers include: @nascentxyz (@delitzer ) & @ZeePrimeCap (@Fiskantes )

$OHM demand / hype is just picking up.

Meet you on top of Mount Olympus.
Just an update, stakers are currently getting 21,500% APY. Image

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More from @HighCoinviction

Jan 15
Updated thoughts on crypto markets:

TLDR - With the Bitcoin ETF catalyst now behind us; increased focus around asset quality & idiosyncratic setups will be the path to superior outperformance in 2024.

A short🧵on how to win.
My prior long form thoughts on markets were that 2023 would be a generational opportunity for long-term convicted buyers.

This was mostly true with the exception of Dec as Syncracy was able to build size in many of its core positions down 90%+ in 2023.

Fast forward- Bitcoin now at $42k post ETF and many alts in 2023 down 30%+ off the highs (still up multiples from the bottom), many investors have shifted too much focus on decisions around reducing / taking up risk and pattern matching to previous cycles, which is suboptimal.
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Feb 2, 2023
$SYN is one of the most misunderstood assets in crypto and offers one of the greatest re-rate opportunities as Synapse Chain launch approaches.

Today Synapse is a leading cross-chain bridge.

Tomorrow Synapse may become a leading rollup and cross-chain ecosystem 🧵. Image
Synapse is currently one of the leading third party bridges that has differentiated itself on the basis of user experience.

It offers best in class onboarding (gas airdrops and fast speeds) and is quickest to support highly demanded new chains (the latest being Canto). Image
While cross-chain bridging volumes will continue to grow exponentially as the cryptoeconomy expands multichain, bridging is just scratching the surface of the opportunity.

The future is generic cross-chain messaging systems – a superset of cross-chain exchange.
Read 13 tweets
Jan 1, 2023
Despite a brutal 2022 for crypto in terms of sentiment, I have never been more excited about the industry long term from a fundamentals perspective.

The vision and structural advantages of Web 3.0 has never been more clear although the path of execution remains long.

A short🧵
In late 2016 - the opinions I had on what blockchain technology could do and why it mattered for the world were very abstract + non substantive.

Today, that is no longer the case - there are now concrete answers as to why the Web 3.0 model is superior to that of Web 2.0.
The main structural advantages of the Web 3.0 model vs Web 2.0 I believe are:

a. Protocols provide stronger guarantees / predictability through decentralization
b. Lower cost of coordination
c. Global scale + stronger network effects
d. Faster pace of innovation
Read 17 tweets
Dec 2, 2022
Current thoughts on crypto markets:

TLDR; controlled aggression in this environment will be the path to generational wealth creation over the next 3 to 5 years.

A short 🧵
Overall, crypto markets are likely very choppy over the next 6 to 12 months - directional bias still leans to the downside but will be a slow grind.

There will be many opportunities to take advantage / fade the extremes.

Very favorable regime for convicted, long term buyers.
Most important thing is to not lose sight of the big picture and have conviction behind ideas.

Be greedy in the long term and not the short term.

Many traders will likely overtrade and make mistakes in this range bound market - body count will continue to rise.
Read 8 tweets
Jun 29, 2022
I believe that there is a massive short opportunity for $ETH at ~$1200 over the next 2 months.

We still have not seen real capitulation yet and July / August are lining up to be potentially the worst months.

Here is how I am thinking about things 🧵
We are currently in a market regime where it is all just one big "Macro trade".

Plotting $ETH & $BTC prices with inflation prints show markets have been very sensitive to macro.

Crypto has been trading heavily with "Growth" and $QQQ.
Precisely, $ETH has been trading at a ~0.8 correlation and ~2.0x Beta relative to Nasdaq and this is unlikely to change over the next couple months given a lack of catalysts for crypto.

ETH-merge will likely be Oct/Nov and Dank Sharding roadmap shows we are still years out.
Read 25 tweets
May 19, 2022
During senior year of college, I clocked in >200 hours counting cards in Blackjack at the local casinos and paid off a good portion of my student loans through this hobby.

A 🧵teaching you how to count cards and why it ultimately makes you a better public markets investor.

1/
The game of Blackjack is a classic offering in any casino
Casinos love Blackjack because idiots typically only have ~42% chance of winning in the long run.

However, through card counting - a player can tip the odds in their favor with a slightly > 50% win rate long term.
Here is a quick video explaining the rules of Blackjack for the newcomers:

Read 25 tweets

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