TLDR - With the Bitcoin ETF catalyst now behind us; increased focus around asset quality & idiosyncratic setups will be the path to superior outperformance in 2024.
A short🧵on how to win.
My prior long form thoughts on markets were that 2023 would be a generational opportunity for long-term convicted buyers.
This was mostly true with the exception of Dec as Syncracy was able to build size in many of its core positions down 90%+ in 2023.
Fast forward- Bitcoin now at $42k post ETF and many alts in 2023 down 30%+ off the highs (still up multiples from the bottom), many investors have shifted too much focus on decisions around reducing / taking up risk and pattern matching to previous cycles, which is suboptimal.
$SYN is one of the most misunderstood assets in crypto and offers one of the greatest re-rate opportunities as Synapse Chain launch approaches.
Today Synapse is a leading cross-chain bridge.
Tomorrow Synapse may become a leading rollup and cross-chain ecosystem 🧵.
Synapse is currently one of the leading third party bridges that has differentiated itself on the basis of user experience.
It offers best in class onboarding (gas airdrops and fast speeds) and is quickest to support highly demanded new chains (the latest being Canto).
While cross-chain bridging volumes will continue to grow exponentially as the cryptoeconomy expands multichain, bridging is just scratching the surface of the opportunity.
The future is generic cross-chain messaging systems – a superset of cross-chain exchange.
Despite a brutal 2022 for crypto in terms of sentiment, I have never been more excited about the industry long term from a fundamentals perspective.
The vision and structural advantages of Web 3.0 has never been more clear although the path of execution remains long.
A short🧵
In late 2016 - the opinions I had on what blockchain technology could do and why it mattered for the world were very abstract + non substantive.
Today, that is no longer the case - there are now concrete answers as to why the Web 3.0 model is superior to that of Web 2.0.
The main structural advantages of the Web 3.0 model vs Web 2.0 I believe are:
a. Protocols provide stronger guarantees / predictability through decentralization
b. Lower cost of coordination
c. Global scale + stronger network effects
d. Faster pace of innovation
I believe that there is a massive short opportunity for $ETH at ~$1200 over the next 2 months.
We still have not seen real capitulation yet and July / August are lining up to be potentially the worst months.
Here is how I am thinking about things 🧵
We are currently in a market regime where it is all just one big "Macro trade".
Plotting $ETH & $BTC prices with inflation prints show markets have been very sensitive to macro.
Crypto has been trading heavily with "Growth" and $QQQ.
Precisely, $ETH has been trading at a ~0.8 correlation and ~2.0x Beta relative to Nasdaq and this is unlikely to change over the next couple months given a lack of catalysts for crypto.
ETH-merge will likely be Oct/Nov and Dank Sharding roadmap shows we are still years out.
During senior year of college, I clocked in >200 hours counting cards in Blackjack at the local casinos and paid off a good portion of my student loans through this hobby.
A 🧵teaching you how to count cards and why it ultimately makes you a better public markets investor.
1/
The game of Blackjack is a classic offering in any casino
Casinos love Blackjack because idiots typically only have ~42% chance of winning in the long run.
However, through card counting - a player can tip the odds in their favor with a slightly > 50% win rate long term.
Here is a quick video explaining the rules of Blackjack for the newcomers: