Updated thoughts on crypto markets:

TLDR - With the Bitcoin ETF catalyst now behind us; increased focus around asset quality & idiosyncratic setups will be the path to superior outperformance in 2024.

A short🧵on how to win. My prior long form thoughts on markets were that 2023 would be a generational opportunity for long-term convicted buyers.

This was mostly true with the exception of Dec as Syncracy was able to build size in many of its core positions down 90%+ in 2023.

https://twitter.com/HighCoinviction/status/1598545346480816128

$SYN is one of the most misunderstood assets in crypto and offers one of the greatest re-rate opportunities as Synapse Chain launch approaches.

Today Synapse is a leading cross-chain bridge.

Tomorrow Synapse may become a leading rollup and cross-chain ecosystem 🧵. Synapse is currently one of the leading third party bridges that has differentiated itself on the basis of user experience.

It offers best in class onboarding (gas airdrops and fast speeds) and is quickest to support highly demanded new chains (the latest being Canto).

Despite a brutal 2022 for crypto in terms of sentiment, I have never been more excited about the industry long term from a fundamentals perspective.

The vision and structural advantages of Web 3.0 has never been more clear although the path of execution remains long.

A short🧵 In late 2016 - the opinions I had on what blockchain technology could do and why it mattered for the world were very abstract + non substantive.

Today, that is no longer the case - there are now concrete answers as to why the Web 3.0 model is superior to that of Web 2.0.

Current thoughts on crypto markets:

TLDR; controlled aggression in this environment will be the path to generational wealth creation over the next 3 to 5 years.

A short 🧵 Overall, crypto markets are likely very choppy over the next 6 to 12 months - directional bias still leans to the downside but will be a slow grind.

There will be many opportunities to take advantage / fade the extremes.

Very favorable regime for convicted, long term buyers.

I believe that there is a massive short opportunity for $ETH at ~$1200 over the next 2 months.

We still have not seen real capitulation yet and July / August are lining up to be potentially the worst months.

Here is how I am thinking about things 🧵 We are currently in a market regime where it is all just one big "Macro trade".

Plotting $ETH & $BTC prices with inflation prints show markets have been very sensitive to macro.

Crypto has been trading heavily with "Growth" and $QQQ.

During senior year of college, I clocked in >200 hours counting cards in Blackjack at the local casinos and paid off a good portion of my student loans through this hobby.

A 🧵teaching you how to count cards and why it ultimately makes you a better public markets investor.

1/ The game of Blackjack is a classic offering in any casino
Casinos love Blackjack because idiots typically only have ~42% chance of winning in the long run.

However, through card counting - a player can tip the odds in their favor with a slightly > 50% win rate long term.

Excited to announce the launch of Pangea Fund Management with my good friend and Co-founder @RyanWatkins_.

@PangeaFundMgmt is a thesis driven hedge fund making high conviction, concentrated investments in the secular winners of the cryptoeconomy.

🧵

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… I first met Ryan in 2018 at a training event back when we were both grinding away as measley investment banking analysts.

At the time, everyone in our analyst class was focused on private equity & hedge fund recruiting while we alternatively saw crypto as the promised land.

Excited to announce that I have officially resigned from Tradfi and will be joining the Web 3 revolution.

Thought I would make a thread introducing myself and my journey.

My DMs are open now so feel free to message me - would be great to make some new friends🧵. My full name is Daniel Cheung, I am currently 26 years old and grew up in Toronto - I am currently living in New York.

Growing up, I was someone who was always passionate about investing especially in public equities and taking risk.

The largest bubble for Web 3.0 is still not behind us and will likely happen in the next few years.

Here are my thoughts on:
-The rise of Web 2.0 vs Web 3.0
-How early 2022 plays out and beyond

History doesn't repeat, but it certainly rhymes 👇. The mid to late 1900s - 2000 were known as the years of the Dot-com Era.

This was a period of unprecedented stock market returns as the Nasdaq >30xed

Returns went parabolic between 1995 - 2000 (Dot-com bubble).

US 10YR rates were consistently above 4% during those periods.

I believe @altstatemachine is a >10x opportunity over a one month time horizon and is one of the best small cap plays in crypto.

The project sits at the center of 3 megatrends: AI, Metaverse & NFTs.

This has potential to be bigger than Axie Infinity LT.

Let me explain🧵 This is truly the most fascinating Web 3.0 project I have come across and one of the most well thought out whitepapers.

whitepaper.alteredstatemachine.xyz

Arweave is well positioned to achieve a $150bn+ valuation over the next 5 years, implying a 60x from current valuations of $2.5bn.

Decentralized storage is the biggest but most overlooked theme right now making $AR possibly one of the best investments.

Let me explain🧵 The data storage businesses of the world today are some of the best businesses.

Despite⬇️pressure on pricing, these are some of the largest companies in the world by mkt cap.

The industry is dominated by few players with high barriers to entry.

Treasury management for DAOs is becoming critical & will be a massive TAM for years to come.

The use of interest rate derivatives helps to unlock the potential of this market and @pendle_fi is at the forefront of the yield primitive charge.

Bullish $PENDLE - Let me explain🧵 DAOs are now sitting on significant treasuries which are not going to be deployed into degen farms.

Low risk, high confidence yields over the LT are becoming requirements.

I agree with Jeff here that L1's are valuable (i.e. $ETH and $LUNA) and they are the best assets to long given no clear valuation framework and attractive R/R.

But the claim that the totality of applications built on blockchains has to be larger than the platforms is wrong. 🧵

https://twitter.com/jdorman81/status/1451565838629146628

There is a good chance in the long run that there will only be a few winners on every L1, and those winners will become global superpowers.

Protocols compete on a global playing field, and the flywheel effects allow these protocols to accrue massive scale quickly.

I am only getting more excited everyday as we approach @terra_money Columbus 5 upgrade.

Let me summarize quickly the 4 main reasons why I am so bullish on $LUNA as a result.

Read to the end for my ELI2 key takeaway.

Here it is: 🧵 1.Seigniorage Burns (Burn all LUNA from UST mints) - A large portion of this wasn't being burned prev. and instead being directed to a community pool.

Therefore, post Col-5 $LUNA circ. supply could see a sizeable drop as a result which exerts strong upward price pressure.

Came across a very interesting project recently that reminded me of @OlympusDAO back when it was $30mm mkt cap.

Chart looks prime, now is the $TIME anon.

This is an easy 3x at the minimum from here.

Some quick thoughts 👇 As you all know, making a non-pegged stable coin project come to fruition is difficult.

@OlympusDAO was able to succeed because it was able to attract a strong community early on where everyone believed in (3,3) Zeus was also a god figure which helped.

The L1 incentive war happening in crypto reminds me of the landgrab situation taking place with US online sports betting.

For the first time, we are seeing strong activity take place outside of ETH leaving some to question who the LT winner will be.

Here are my thoughts👇 Here are the parallels between the current smart contract wars and US OSB mkt:

1) Massive TAM with large greenfield

2) Market structure where share accrues to top 3 players

3) Both in landgrab situation where competitors are burning tons of $$ to win share

I believe the market is currently failing to fundamentally price $RUNE.

@THORChain should be viewed as an asset with L1 like potential, and there exists a massive upward re-rating oppt. should the market realize this.

$RUNE is a 40% position for me.

Here’s why I am excited 🧵 Before we begin, here is one of the best papers published on @THORChain to give you a brief reminder of what they do:

messari.io/article/thorch…

$PENDLE just announced some massive changes to the protocol, which I expect to drive material fundamental growth for the protocol over the coming months.

Interest rate derivatives is an untapped market in DeFi and there is continuous innovation happening here.

👇 to learn more. Here is a quick recap on @pendle_fi in case you forgot.

https://twitter.com/HighCoinviction/status/1394795639272353793

Have been getting some DMs lately on when I plan to sell my $SOL position so thought I'd do a quick thread so everyone can benefit.

TLDR: I think there is still at least 4x to go from here, which is meaningful.

👇 to learn why At the highest level, valuation of an asset comes down to two things:

1) Fundamentals, usually addressed via some "Core" KPI such as TVL, $ Txs settled etc...

2) "Willingness To Pay" factor, which is more art than science and is influenced by comps, market cycle & other things

$SOL will be one of the fastest horses in the next leg of the bull run.

The Solana ecosystem continues to build momentum with development activity booming and TVL soaring past ATHs.

Even at current val. it still offers one of the best R/R in crypto.

$SOL summer is coming🧵 The value proposition of Solana boils down into a simple pitch:

The fastest and cheapest smart contract platform in crypto.

But that alone isn’t interesting enough for Solana to stand out.

COMP will likely vastly outperform ETH & DeFi over the next 6 months given:

1) Compound Treasury - more liquidity, better borrowing rates, more adoption

2) Compound Chain - more chains, more collateral, larger TAM

Institutional adoption is here & COMP is at the center of it 🧵 ' @compoundfinance is an ETH-based project that is focused on establishing various money markets on Ethereum.

The protocol aggregates a bunch of assets into a single pool so that suppliers & borrowers can interact directly with the protocol as opposed to with a third party.