In the short term, there’s no choice but strain all of @BorisJohnson’s sinews to ensure the best possible relationship with the EU & the smoothest possible functioning of the NIP. /2.
But we shouldn’t imagine that tinkering, including the major step of an SPS (Sanitary & Phytosanitary) agreement with the EU - if that’s available, given UK sovereigntism & EU “cherry picking” concerns - can result in anything other than a dangerously unstable arrangement. /3.
Which is what we currently have. And which is baked into the Brexit deal @BorisJohnson demanded & presented to the world as the oven ready reason why he should be PM. /4.
It’s what we’ll continue to have unless & until the whole UK of GB & NI returns the EU customs union & single market. Or closely equivalent arrangements. /5.
The problem with dangerously unstable arrangements is, while they’re often attractive to politicians who’ve backed themselves into a corner, they have a tendency to come unstuck. Often with disastrous consequences. /6.
In NI’s case there’s every reason to fear those might be, literally, fatal.
Anyone who cares about the UK’s constitution - of which the GFA/BA became an integral part in 1998 - & the future well-being of NI & the wider UK, can’t in conscience support current govt policy. /7.
Nor can they support any attempt, via back, front or any door, to place a customs or regulatory border across Ireland.
Or fantasies (some pretty dark, it must be said) of “alternative arrangements” (leprechauns riding unicorns) or forcing RoI out of the EU (this isn’t 1921). /8.
Respect for the GFA/BA isn’t an optional extra. And there’s no exit clause. /9.
Whatever clever or contorted legal arguments might be advanced - sometimes even sanctified by judges - from time to time, neither a border in the sea without prior majority consent, nor a customs/ regulatory border across Ireland is compatible with the GFA/BA. /10.
In the short term, we must patch up the operation of the NIP. Urgently & in parallel, with US & EU help, the UK needs to find a ladder to climb back down.
There’s no future for the UK of GB & NI outside arrangements essentially identical to the EU’s CU & SM. /11.
The sooner everyone acknowledges & acts on that, the better.
If you have five minutes to spare, I set out the realities ten days ago in this 🧵 👇 /12. End
P.S. I should have added to both 🧵s links to @davidallengreen’s indispensable @law_and_policy explanations of: (a) the constitutional implications of the Good Friday Agreement/ Belfast Agreement 👇 & ... /1.
... (b) fundamental issues at the heart of the Northern Ireland Protocol, set out in @davidallengreen’s @law_and_policy blog here 👇 with reference to @hayward_katy’s essential explainer. /2. End
A brief history of the last 70 years of 🇩🇪 - 🇬🇧 relations. Short 🧵/1.
Many Germans, including much of the diplomatic establishment, felt like this about 🇬🇧. Often despite considerable provocation, especially in the English tabloids. /2.
Some, usually only in private, but then quite vehemently, had a different perspective on 🇬🇧.
But still, with 🇺🇸 in charge, even those 🇩🇪 sceptics felt able to work extremely closely with 🇬🇧. /3.
(a) following UK, German & wider EU reporting today is genuinely terrifying. Unless the UK can find a way to reintegrate itself into one of the two mission critical components of the Euro-Atlantic alliance - the EU - & the EU to accept it, .../2.
... we’re in serious trouble.
This isn’t about Bridlington Bangers to Belfast, or other such trivialising tropes used by some UK ministers.
And, if I were @SecBlinken’s chief of staff, I’d have this dossier, with options for US intervention, on his desk today; /3.
.@robertshrimsley makes an important point👇 about the potential, unintended consequences of getting drawn into confected battles over flags, or for that matter songs at the Proms, statues & much else.
... which, left unchallenged, leads to circumstances in which challenge is no longer possible. More precisely, no longer permissible. Or safe. Safe for example to call for “freedom of speech [&] religion & protection of the individual citizen from [...] arbitrary action”./3.
No police force can command the confidence of the public, or the country’s democratic representatives, in the face of such appalling events. As the leader of the force in question, I fully accept that my position is untenable. /2.
I have submitted my resignation to the Home Secretary & have informed the Mayor of London.
The Deputy Commissioner will take over my duties on an acting basis until a successor is found. /3.