Thread by @AndrewPRLevi

.@DavidGHFrost says the NIP needs consent of “all of the people” in NI.

This is as close as HM Govt has come to admitting its Brexit deal is incompatible with the GFA/BA.

It’s attempting to put lipstick on a pig. Which won’t work.

What next?

A 🧵/1.

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…

In the short term, there’s no choice but strain all of @BorisJohnson’s sinews to ensure the best possible relationship with the EU & the smoothest possible functioning of the NIP. /2.

But we shouldn’t imagine that tinkering, including the major step of an SPS (Sanitary & Phytosanitary) agreement with the EU - if that’s available, given UK sovereigntism & EU “cherry picking” concerns - can result in anything other than a dangerously unstable arrangement. /3.

Which is what we currently have. And which is baked into the Brexit deal @BorisJohnson demanded & presented to the world as the oven ready reason why he should be PM. /4.

It’s what we’ll continue to have unless & until the whole UK of GB & NI returns the EU customs union & single market. Or closely equivalent arrangements. /5.

The problem with dangerously unstable arrangements is, while they’re often attractive to politicians who’ve backed themselves into a corner, they have a tendency to come unstuck. Often with disastrous consequences. /6.

In NI’s case there’s every reason to fear those might be, literally, fatal.

Anyone who cares about the UK’s constitution - of which the GFA/BA became an integral part in 1998 - & the future well-being of NI & the wider UK, can’t in conscience support current govt policy. /7.

Nor can they support any attempt, via back, front or any door, to place a customs or regulatory border across Ireland.

Or fantasies (some pretty dark, it must be said) of “alternative arrangements” (leprechauns riding unicorns) or forcing RoI out of the EU (this isn’t 1921). /8.

Respect for the GFA/BA isn’t an optional extra. And there’s no exit clause. /9.

Whatever clever or contorted legal arguments might be advanced - sometimes even sanctified by judges - from time to time, neither a border in the sea without prior majority consent, nor a customs/ regulatory border across Ireland is compatible with the GFA/BA. /10.

In the short term, we must patch up the operation of the NIP. Urgently & in parallel, with US & EU help, the UK needs to find a ladder to climb back down.

There’s no future for the UK of GB & NI outside arrangements essentially identical to the EU’s CU & SM. /11.

The sooner everyone acknowledges & acts on that, the better.

If you have five minutes to spare, I set out the realities ten days ago in this 🧵 👇 /12. End

https://twitter.com/andrewprlevi/status/1372232268941553670

P.S. I should have added to both 🧵s links to @davidallengreen’s indispensable @law_and_policy explanations of: (a) the constitutional implications of the Good Friday Agreement/ Belfast Agreement 👇 & ... /1.

davidallengreen.com/2021/02/why-ve…

... (b) fundamental issues at the heart of the Northern Ireland Protocol, set out in @davidallengreen’s @law_and_policy blog here 👇 with reference to @hayward_katy’s essential explainer. /2. End

davidallengreen.com/2021/03/the-is…