Hold2 Profile picture
Mar 27, 2021 22 tweets 13 min read
Thread: Masks and NPIs.

This thread reviews information published from Oct 2019 - Dec 2020.

The point is to see what was known/believed before & after discovery of COV2.

We'll start with research on epidemic/pandemic influenza (flu) from Oct of 2019.

Aerosols vs. droplets.
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Seasonality? This was actually a known phenomenon?

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Intended impact of NPIs.

Does this look familiar? This published in October of 2019 - that's very interesting to me.

Why does this "flatten the curve" image always go to 0 with no resurgence and not have values on either axis?

Let's look at NY and FL for fun.

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Evaluation of the evidence.

Order of quality (best to worst):
1) Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs)
2) Observational Studies
3) Computer Simulations

How many RCTs have been done since COV2? None? DANMASK?

How about the CDC review of 14 RCTs covering NPIs in the community?

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Summary of Recommendations.


For Asymptomatic:

Conditionally recommended "although there is no evidence that this is effective in reducing transmission"

For Symptomatic:

Recommended always despite no evidence

Why? Mechanistic plausibility.😐

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Surface and object cleaning?

Recommended at all times "although there is no evidence this is effective in reducing transmission."

Why? Mechanistic plausibility.😐

Contact tracing?


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Sick Individuals:

Recommended at all times but very low quality of evidence.

Exposed Individuals (not sick):

"no obvious rationale for this measure"


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School measures and closures?

Conditionally recommended with very low quality of evidence.

Should only be for a limited period of time with all adverse effects fully considered first.

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Personal Protective Measures.

Hand Hygiene?

Apparently, RCTs have not found hand hygiene to be effective against flu in community settings. I did not know this. Did you?

This only works theoretically and experimentally, so again its down to mechanistic plausibility.

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"There was no evidence that face masks are effective in reducing transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza."

Why then does this same entity conditionally recommend wearing of masks by asymptomatic people?

"mechanistic plausibility."

No mention of the harms.

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Now, we jump to May 2020.

Different entity saying the same thing.

"these measures did not support a substantial effect on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza"

Despite what? Mechanistic plausibility...

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What changed for COV2? Why did Fauci say masks should not be worn only to then do a 180* and start acting like they were magic?

This defied all known science except "mechanistic plausibility."

Did they all mistake correlation for causation while ignoring seasonality?

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1 month later to June 2020.

By now, masks had gone from obscure to mandated for general public.

This is acknowledged while stating such mask usage is not supported by evidence.

However, it still recommends masks due to...correlation seen in recent observations (Mar-May).

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None for "the effectiveness of universal masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses"

Potential Benefits?

"reduced potential exposure"

- Reduced stigmatization
- Virtue
- Compliance
- Source of income


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Potential Harms?

- Self-contamination due to touching mask and face/eyes
- Self-contamination due to improper use, amplifying microorganism growth
- Headaches / breathing difficulties
- Skin lesions
- Communication, especially children, deaf, & developmentally challenged

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Now, Dec 2020. Did anything change?


No new supporting evidence, but the language was changed from

"there is no direct evidence"


"there is only limited and inconsistent scientific evidence"

Basically...there's no evidence, but we keep recommending anyway.

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Mostly the same except they reworded the "compliance" bullet. Still have virtue listed.

It specifically references reduced spread of "droplets" without mentioning aerosols.

Also claims masks prevent TB and Flu but does not provide a reference with evidence.

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2 strange changes:

1) First, both of the "self-contamination" bullets were removed. Why? There went from first on the list to non-existent

2) Added a very interesting one: "a false sense of security"

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In the end, "despite the limited evidence of efficacy of mask wearing in community settings," they still advise mask wearing.


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This is enough to force children to wear masks of random materials for many hours each day?

This is enough to scare people into not only wearing masks wherever they go but even wearing 2?

We must stop. Don't be fooled. Don't let yourself be coerced into compliance.


WHO (Oct 2019):

CDC (May 2019):

WHO (Jun 2020):

WHO (Dec 2020):


In the vein of "correlation-as-causation" with observational studies, this happened in November.

A team at UCSF, including @MonicaGandhi9 - who I wish to enter a dialogue with - withdrew a pre-print that was originally going to correlate mask mandates w/ decreased Hosps. https://www.medrxiv.org/con...

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More from @Hold2LLC

Oct 14
Last weekend, it was Hold2-CoV2 at the @Rational_Ground conference in San Diego.

This week/end, it's Hold2-Investing (our origin) at the New Orleans Investment Conference.

My only CoV2 item to report is there are no masks and no mention of COVID.

More importantly...

I have a diverse investment portfolio of hard assets ranging from ATMs to Self-Storage to coal-based high-grade petroleum extraction.

The key theme of my visit this year has been oil and gas. I've exclusively focused my time on just this part of my portfolio.

Here's why...

Before touching on the national/global energy situation driving heightened interest from new investors, here are my oil-&-gas Pros:

- Top-line, same-year Adjusted Growth Income (AGI) reduction on tax return based on Indirect Drilling Costs (IDCs)
- Massive ROI potential

Read 9 tweets
Oct 8
New York Hospitalization Update: 10/8/22

8-month update showing:

- Total Staffed Beds (gold)
- Total Beds Used (blue - subset of gold)
- COVID Beds Used (red - subset of blue)
- Adult COVID ICU Beds Used (black)
- Pediatric COVID Beds Used (green - subset of red)

New Jersey

Notice 2 main things:

1) COVID-associated surges (red) had no impact on Total Beds Used
2) NJ Staffed Beds (gold) recovered by Jan 2021 and have remained stable ever since

Contrast #2 with NY where Staffed Beds recovered late Dec 2020 and have steadily fallen.


Conversely, FL Beds Used _have_ fluctuated with the COVID waves but so did the Staffed Beds in response.

Like NJ, Staffed Beds have been steady but recovered earlier in 2020.

Read 4 tweets
Oct 7
US CoV2 Hospitalization Census Update: 10/7/22

US - All States

- Lowest summer wave so far
- Amplitude similar to 2020 but diverging lower
- History indicates an upturn very soon

Likely to have a similar pattern with lower peak this winter? Thought the same last year, though.

- Almost identical to 2021. Fascinating
- Higher than 2020
- Likely to turn up in the next month or so

Though Hosp census is same or higher, this does not seem to reflect in equal deaths.

- Much lower summer peak than prior years
- Delta 2021 was clearly problematic
- With the much lower summer wave, I’d guess an upturn similar to 2020 (earlier than 2021)
Read 4 tweets
Jun 24
Why does US Public Health keep doing this.

@HealthySCC put out this propaganda with false claims and hid more than half the comments.

We all know these claims weren’t proven in the trials.

Why are they doing this?

Why won’t they be honest and attempt to build trust?

1a) Children CAN get very sick? That’s it?

Children CAN get struck by meteorites, but how likely is it?

1b) Vax is the best prevention?

To what degree and compared to what? Being healthy? Prior infection?

Pfizer trial had higher incidence of severe illness in the Vax arm.

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2) Children who ger COVID can get other illnesses later??? So can children who don’t get COVID and at the same rate.

Also, the vaccine does not prevent CoV2 infection to being with and most already got infected.

Why would they list this as a reason to vaccinate?

/3 Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 23
The quotes in this article from Denmark Public Health officials are a must-read for everyone, especially parents of healthy toddlers thinking about vaccinating when no other country is doing it.

Read the article, but here are some key quotes.

Pushing vaccination on kids for the sake of adults is wrong.

Creating false panic and overstating risks for kids is wrong.

Coercing parents breaches trust, and trust is Public Health’s #1 necessity to succeed.

Natural immunity lasts longer and is low risk for healthy children.

Read 4 tweets
Apr 6
On the phone now with @RoyalCaribbean in an attempt to "use" credits from the Feb 2021 cancelation.

They require Vax for 12+ and expect to continue this policy after May 31...despite not being required by gov't.

Despite this, they still won't refund our money.

It's criminal.

1) First rep was unhelpful, because she was simply told "no refunds." She tried to convince me the policy "might" change before the credits expire in Dec

2) Escalated to manager who did nothing except parrot the same

3) Sent DM to RC with details - awaiting response
No response from @RoyalCaribbean on my DM yet after 29 hours.

Unsure of their typical turnaround time.
Read 4 tweets

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