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7 Oct
Answering you, we strictly did homeschooling last year because of being failed by state leadership and our local public school district.

We outsourced the curriculum development AND teaching (via tutoring). It was a preferable alternative but was not awesome.

This year...

/1
We continued because 2 of our 3 kids preferred it and did not want to go back, so we improved our situation by joining a co-op where they still interact with many other kids, do extracurricular activities, never see a single mask, and get exposure to much better curricula...

/2
The co-op set the curricula and progress/milestones, but it's completely up to me to decide what we follow, what we use, how intense we do it, and how best our 3 kids learn.

So far, it's even better and is working very well. Our girls get to train (equestrian) much more...

/3
Read 4 tweets
13 Sep
Homeschool Update: Year 2

Last year, we pulled our kids from NY public schools at the last minute, because we would not accept only 2d/wk of in-person teaching and would not accept our kids to be forcibly masked.

We thought for sure we'd be able to return this year, but...

/1
As CoV2 numbers dropped seasonally (Jan-May) along with rising vax rates, we felt confident we'd see normal conditions (no masks, quarantine, distancing, etc.).

I asked their preferences:
-Twins chose to continue homeschool
-High-schooler chose to return but only if no masks

/2
Over the summer, things got crazy with Cuomo's scandal. He and NYS DOH did not announce new school guidance while school districts scrambled to respond to angry parents.

Eventually, DOH quietly emailed Superintendents stating they could make masks optional for summer school.

/3
Read 8 tweets
7 Jul
NY School Masking - Master Thread: Summer/Fall 2021

Gov Cuomo and NYS DOH left school districts confused when removing the State of Emergency without clarifying school mask rules.

This thread shows School Districts where masks are proactively made optional:

#1 - Depew Image
#2 - Hamburg

Same wording. Note these districts are matching up summer school with summer camp guidance.

Key quote:

"...there is no material difference in risk levels or populations between our programs and summer camps." Image
#3 - Tonawanda

Same text again.

Notable logic:
- Cuomo lifted the state of emergency
- NYSDOH, NYSED, and CDC guidance documents only covered the '20-'21 school year, which ended
- Legal counsel agreed with the logic
- Will re-evaluate if NYS issues new guidance Image
Read 8 tweets
3 Jul
Well, it looks like this is the end. We thought it was over when CTP stopped, but then @TheLawyerCraig and his merry band of data volunteers kept us going for 4 more months.

In commemoration, we will post our final chart set.

First, Reported Cases & Hospitalization Census

/1
Same chart w/Hope-Simpson overlay.

- Summer stimulus visible again like last year, though 2 weeks later
- Cases bottomed on 6/18 and have risen since but much less than 2020
- Hosp Census followed trend this past week by hitting its inflection point and turning up slightly

/2
Reported Cases vs. Test Positivity

As is typically the case, Pos% inflected first with Reported Cases following shortly after.

Though turning up like 2020, the Pos% rate increase is much shallower and much lower overall.

/3
Read 6 tweets
26 Jun
US CoV2 Update: 6/26/21

Cases w/inflection points labeled. Summer stimulus with upward pressure has arrived.

As expected, amplitude is minimal.

Spring Peak:
- 2020: 4/13
- 2021: 4/12

June Trough:
- 2020: 6/10
- 2021: 6/18

Summer Peak:
- 2020: 7/23
- 2021: TBD

/1
Hospitalization Census w/inflection points labeled.

Summer stimulus showing the same as Cases but with slight lag.

Amplitude increase should be minimal.

Spring Peak:
- 2020: 4/21
- 2021: 4/21

June Trough:
- 2020: 6/20
- 2021: 6/25-28?

Summer Peak:
- 2020: 7/27
- 2021: TBD
/2
Reported Deaths w/inflection points labeled.

This pattern is much less aligned than Cases/Hosps.

That April 2020 spike appears abnormal beyond just the effects of CoV2 itself.

Notice how much closer the current numbers are.

Probably will see another July 4 reporting trough.
Read 4 tweets
12 Jun
***Master NY BOE Unmask🧵***

I've created this to gather all the NY BOE letters being sent to Gov Cuomo and Legislature.

It started with Hauppauge, a Long Island district that was open 5d/wk ALL YEAR. Yes, even in NY. They set the pace.

This is Science. This is Leadership. ImageImage
Then Massapequa jumped in the ring for tag team support while adding their own #RationalGround verbiage:

"We respectfully request that you either provide the data and science that supports the universal masking of our children, or you lift the mask mandates for schools."

🔥🔥🔥 Image
Next, the floodgates opened.

A scorcher from William Floyd.

"...masks are causing anxiety and mental anguish, along with physical issues such as nosebleeds and trouble breathing..."

How many times have you heard, "what's the harm?" or "well my kid doesn't mind wearing one"? Image
Read 25 tweets
29 May
Lowest 10 States - COVID Mortality Year-Over-Year

This is Reported Death Per Million shown Year-over-Year for the 10 states with the lowest COVID mortality.
Oregon and Washington by themselves on the same scale.

Note that 1/M/Day is very low.
These charts show Hospitalization Census Per Million for 2 groups:

Chart 1) The 5 states with the highest COVID Mortality

Chart 2) The 5 states with the lowest COVID Mortality

Same scale.

Bottom 5 are higher than last year but overall extremely low. Peak barely above 100/M.
Read 5 tweets
9 May
US States CoV2 2020 vs. 2021: 5/9/21

Let's peek at some states compared to last year and current trends relative to NPIs.

Starting with AZ:
- Both Reported Deaths and Date of Death >50% lower
- Hosp Census 20% lower
- Positivity 36% lower despite Case Detection 84% higher
FL:
- Reported Deaths a little higher than last year but much lower than when all restrictions were removed
- Date of Death identical to last year as of 4/25
- Did not report Hosp Census until 7/10/20, but you can see the difference. Dropping quickly after a brief Spring stimulus
TX:
- Hosp Census higher than last year but down 56% since the Neanderthal comment and trending down
- Reported Deaths down 80% since the Neanderthal comment and trending down. Slightly higher than last year but converging
Read 4 tweets
1 May
CoV2 2020 vs. 2021: AL/GA/MS/TN/TX

🧐🤔

Not sure what to think.
AZ/CA/NV
NJ vs. CT/MA/NJ/NY/RI
Read 5 tweets
24 Apr
Thread on "Consilience" (tm @EthicalSkeptic)

I hope Dr. Jacobs will engage and discuss with us in good faith.

My intent is to explain how we analyze patterns and look for consilience before predicting or calling peaks.

It's important to know what to expect, right?

/1
This started with my tweet on 4/12 claiming MI/NY/NJ had peaked and that Hosps would peak next...likely the following week.

I didn't post that based on hopes and guesses. It was based on known data/patterns:
- Historical evidence
- Leading indicators

/2

Historical Evidence:

- Hope-Simpson N. Temperate pattern
- April 2020 pattern

Instead of assuming US states dropped in unison at the same time last Spring due to NPIs, we consider natural forces to be predominant.

/3
Read 8 tweets
12 Apr
Taking this one step further, you HAVE to watch this review of the JAMA study.

As a reminder, this is a CDC study claiming over 50% of transmission is caused by asymp (Fauci).

They use a model where they ASSUME asymp is 75% as infectious as symptomatic.
Lee paper (9):
- Viral load is similar between asymp and symp
- "Viral load is not the same thing as infectiousness or transmissability"

Johansson (JAMA author) used that to claim asymp infectious is 100% as much as symptomatic (fed into the 75% model assumption).

/2
Chaw paper (#15):
- Symptomatic was 2.7X as presymp and asymp COMBINED
- Presymp more infectious than asymp

Johansson counts this as asymp being 40-140% as infectious but that does not match the paper.

/3
Read 5 tweets
27 Mar
Thread: Masks and NPIs.

This thread reviews information published from Oct 2019 - Dec 2020.

The point is to see what was known/believed before & after discovery of COV2.

We'll start with research on epidemic/pandemic influenza (flu) from Oct of 2019.

Aerosols vs. droplets.
/1 ImageImageImage
Seasonality? This was actually a known phenomenon?

/2 ImageImageImage
Intended impact of NPIs.

Does this look familiar? This published in October of 2019 - that's very interesting to me.

Why does this "flatten the curve" image always go to 0 with no resurgence and not have values on either axis?

Let's look at NY and FL for fun.

/3 ImageImageImage
Read 22 tweets
3 Jan
AZ COVID Update: 1/3/21

Thread.

Lots of data to look at for AZ. Holiday behavior patterns both for residents (when they get tested) and gov't (when they process the results) are difficult to predict, so it's important to look closely at the details.

First, Cases.

/1
Today, 17k cases were reported, but it's important to know the difference between Report Date and Date of Specimen Collection. You see in my chart that there was a major dip in cases right when very few tests were performed on the 24th-26th despite 2 being weekdays.

/2
Those who would have tested, but didn't, showed up to get tested on the 27-29th. Due to this, we see the 2 highest single case dates on 12/28-12/29, but the 7-day-avg is still lower than the 12/23 peak currently.

Just like CA with every restriction imaginable.

/3
Read 7 tweets
3 Dec 20
Thread.

COVID vs. Hope-Simpson Flu Patterns: 12/3/20

We're not through a whole year yet, but patterns are emerging, and I wanted to take a closer look.

We'll start with NY/IL who both are N. Temperate but not exactly the same climate pattern.

/1
Now FL/TX.

FL is closest to true N. Tropical.

TX is very large with varying climates. Some are almost as far north as the southern tip of IL but most pop is further south.

Like IL vs. NY, we would not expect TX to mirror FL exactly but to be much closer to FL than IL/NY.

/2
Now all 4 together. Notice the "W" shape mixing the N Temperate with N Tropical.

Also notice the obvious high winter peak for NY/IL that drops to near-zero in summer.

Notice the lower wave pattern for FL/TX that never gets to zero. Summer peak occurs; winter peak higher?

/3
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct 20
US Update: 10/19/20

Graph 1: Daily Deaths + Current Hospitalizations

- Hospitalizations bottomed 4 weeks ago and then increased tangibly 2 weeks ago. That new increase trend already started abating the past 4 days
- Reported Deaths down 83 Week-over-Week (WoW)

/1 Image
Graph 2: COVID ICU Census vs. Deaths (7DayAvg) vs. Daily Detected Cases

***Case hunting now in mega-hyperdrive and some states now include antigen positives (not antibody)

- 7-Day-Avg Reported Deaths down 15 WoW
- ICUs sizable jump last 2 weeks but peaking again already

/2 Image
Graph 3: Daily Tests + Detected Cases + Case Positivity

***Last 10+ days have seen a real increase in Pos% that coincides with a bump in national CLI

- Test Positivity up 1.0 from trough
- Daily Test avg above 1M for 26 days
- Increase rate much lower than June surge

/3 Image
Read 6 tweets
4 Oct 20
US Update: 10/4/20

Graph 1: Daily Deaths + Current Hospitalizations

- Hospitalizations bottomed out and turned up a little
- Increases past week were mostly from WI (+118), NY (+120), MI (+120), PA (+129), TN (+134)

- Reported Deaths down 129 Week-over-Week (WoW)

/1
Graph 2: COVID ICU Census vs. Deaths (7DayAvg) vs. Daily Detected Cases

***Case hunting still in hyperdrive

- 7-Day-Avg Reported Deaths down 68 WoW
- ICUs below 6k again
- Date of Death curve is below the June/July low point and dropping

/2
Graph 3: Daily Tests + Detected Cases + Case Positivity

***Why are so many being tested daily, and who are they? CLI is at a national record low

- Test Positivity down 0.2 WoW
- 0.4 away from the low point in mid-June
- Tests up 43k WoW
- Detected Cases DOWN 3.4k WoW

/3
Read 6 tweets
3 Oct 20
US Update: 10/3/20

Graph 1: Daily Deaths + Current Hospitalizations

- Hospitalizations bottomed out and turned up a little
- Increase by 928 Week-over-Week (WoW)
- Reported Deaths down 9 WoW.

*Still a LOT of legacy death laundering (very old deaths counted as new)

/1 Image
Graph 2: COVID ICU Census vs. Deaths (7DayAvg) vs. Daily Detected Cases

***Case hunting still in hyperdrive

- 7-Day-Avg Reported Deaths down 31 WoW
- ICUs flattened but not increasing
- Date of Death curve is below the early July low point and receding

/2 Image
Graph 3: Daily Tests + Detected Cases + Case Positivity

***Why are so many being tested daily, and who are they? CLI is at a national record low

- Test Positivity down 0.3 WoW
- 4.4% Positivity yesterday; 7DA nearing low point
- Tests up 107k WoW
- Detected Cases DOWN 6k WoW
/3 ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
28 Sep 20
US Update: 9/28/20

Graph 1: Daily Deaths + Current Hospitalizations

- Hospitalizations bottomed out. Increase by 824 Week-over-Week (WoW)
- Hosps < 1/2 of peak
- Reported Deaths down 20 WoW.

*Still a LOT of legacy death laundering (very old deaths counted as new)

/1 Image
Graph 2: COVID ICU Census vs. Deaths (7DayAvg) vs. Daily Detected Cases

***Case hunting still in hyperdrive

- 7-Day-Avg Reported Deaths down 33 WoW
- ICUs no longer dropping
- Date of Death curve is now far below the early July low point

/2 Image
Graph 3: Daily Tests + Detected Cases + Case Positivity

***Why are so many being tested daily, and who are they? CLI is at a national record low

- Test Positivity no change WoW
- Tests down 99k WoW
- Detected Cases down 1,000 WoW
- 4.4% Positivity yesterday

/3 Image
Read 5 tweets
26 Sep 20
US Update: 9/26/20

Graph 1: Daily Deaths + Current Hospitalizations

- Hospitalizations turned back down but still slightly up Week-over-Week (WoW)
- Hosps < 1/2 of peak
- Reported Deaths DOWN 57 WoW.

*Still a LOT of legacy death laundering (very old deaths counted as new)

/1 Image
Graph 2: COVID ICU Census vs. Deaths (7DayAvg) vs. Daily Detected Cases

***Case hunting is in hyperdrive

- 7-Day-Avg Reported Deaths down 67 WoW
- ICUs still dropping
- Cases from mass/forced college testing + case definition changes still driving artificial increase?

/2 Image
Graph 3: Daily Tests + Detected Cases + Case Positivity

***Why are so many being tested daily, and who are they? CLI is at a national record low

- Test Positivity down 0.3%
- Tests up 26k WoW
- Detected Cases up 8,000 WoW (big jump relative to test increase)

/3 ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
25 Sep 20
US Update: 9/25/20

Graph 1: Daily Deaths + Current Hospitalizations

*Multi-Day Update

- Hospitalizations have the first Week-over-Week (Wow) rise since late July
- Reported Deaths DOWN 162 WoW. Still a LOT of legacy death laundering (very old deaths counted as new)

/1 Image
Graph 2: COVID ICU Census vs. Deaths (7DayAvg) vs. Daily Detected Cases

***Still seeing large backlog dumps of old deaths

- 7-Day-Avg Reported Deaths down 75 WoW
- ICUs keep dropping
- "Cases" from mass/forced college testing + case definition changes = artificial increase

/2 Image
Graph 3: Daily Tests + Detected Cases + Case Positivity

***Still don't see how so many tests are being done daily. Who are the people getting tested and why?

- Test Positivity down 0.5%
- Tests up 110k WoW
- Detected Cases up 214 WoW (0.2% Positivity)

/3 Image
Read 5 tweets
21 Sep 20
US Update: 9/20/20

Graph 1: Daily Deaths + Current Hospitalizations

*2-Day Update

- Hospitalizations continue falling
- Reported Deaths DOWN 73+65 Week-over-Week (WoW)

/1
Graph 2: COVID ICU Census vs. Deaths (7DayAvg) vs. Daily Detected Cases

***Large dumps of backlogged deaths in many states caused an artificial spike last week

- ICUs continue dropping
- "Cases" from mass/forced college testing + case definition changes = artificial increase
/2
Graph 3: Daily Tests + Detected Cases + Case Positivity

*Why are so many tests being done? 2M in the last 2 days

- Tests up 329k WoW <- All from colleges?
- Detected Cases up 5,000 WoW (1.5% Positivity)
- National Positivity jumped early week but dropping quickly again

/3
Read 5 tweets