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Hold2
@Hold2LLC
Build. Share. We invest intelligently in ourselves so that we may share with the world. | Owner - Clayton P. Cobb (@warrtalon) | https://t.co/2qN11O1Wvf
fche Profile picture Paul Melzer Profile picture very special episode Profile picture Grump Profile picture Jane Geraci Profile picture 12 subscribed
Feb 20 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Nature is pretty amazing, eh?

Look how this year is tracing with last year. Remarkable.

% of ED Visits w/CoV2 Image Zoomed in. Image
Jan 15 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Hello, @m_scribe and @guardian , this article has false claims about Flu, CoV2, and RAV, which should be corrected.

None of the 3 are rising, and the CoV2 weekly changes are out of date. You gave the weekly changes for week-ending 12/30, but CDC updates through week-ending 1/6. Image All 3 can be seen declining no later than 12/30.


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Mar 15, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Kelley, did you know the WHO actually did reduce that harms list in the Dec 2020 update of that same document?

Conspicuously, they removed both “self-contamination” bullets.

More undue influence yet again?

(Before and After shown here) ImageImage Oh, and these same 2 documents say the following about mask effectiveness. ImageImage
Mar 14, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Dr. Gandhi, I do not believe PH will simply “recommend.”

I have hate in my heart for your profession, and it will not go away easily.

I say this because I have always believed you cared even when I was screaming at you to stop promoting school masking based on Hosp census. If you are truly trying to drive the PH ship towards being helpful and trustworthy, please take my comments and those of others to heart.

We don’t just not trust you. WE _HATE_ YOU (public health community).

It is a deep resentment that must first be addressed and atoned for.
Mar 13, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Sure, I will respond genuinely on the basis you are asking earnestly.

First, I think EVERYTHING in the screenshot is bad:

1) “Ritual and solidarity” are brainwashing techniques. Fooling/coercing people into accepting and then propagating a measure is dastardly to begin with

/1 Image 2) Doing that with a measure that is ineffective is downright evil, because it brainwashes people unknowingly into a self-harming act both directly (unsanitary, dehumanizing, social detriment, etc) and indirectly (increased exposure due to false sense of security)

/2
Feb 7, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
NYC CoV2 Update: 2/7/23

Not many Unvaxxed getting Vaxxed since July 2022.

Ratio of Vaxxed outcomes remaining steady since March of 2022.

Limitations/Caveats:
- I'm using 2020 census pop as the denominator
- I'm combining Boosted + Full Vax
- NYC excludes Partial Vax outcomes The reason I show NYC data as "% Share of Outcomes" is because @nycHealthy chooses to show "age-adjusted per 100k" Vax vs. Unvax rates.

...but doing that is susceptible inaccurate Unvax denominators.

Here, you can see how far off those denominators are:

Hold2 vs. DOH
Jan 29, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Headed to FL on Amtrak auto train; waiting area is packed.

- Median age ~70
- Masking: 5-10%
- Most common mask: surgical ~75%

80yo couple just sat next to me and then put on surgical masks.

They are now shooting concentrated plumes into my face out the sides. @mamasaurusMeg A month in FL does the body good.
Dec 17, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
CoV2 Mitigation Status Check: US vs. South Korea

South Korea still on a rocketship of CoV2 cases.

South Korea has surpassed the US Omicron peak twice in the past year and is on its way towards a 3rd right now.

/1 This version shows cumulative cases (all-time).

/2
Oct 14, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Last weekend, it was Hold2-CoV2 at the @Rational_Ground conference in San Diego.

This week/end, it's Hold2-Investing (our origin) at the New Orleans Investment Conference.

My only CoV2 item to report is there are no masks and no mention of COVID.

More importantly...

/1 I have a diverse investment portfolio of hard assets ranging from ATMs to Self-Storage to coal-based high-grade petroleum extraction.

The key theme of my visit this year has been oil and gas. I've exclusively focused my time on just this part of my portfolio.

Here's why...

/2
Oct 8, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
New York Hospitalization Update: 10/8/22

8-month update showing:

- Total Staffed Beds (gold)
- Total Beds Used (blue - subset of gold)
- COVID Beds Used (red - subset of blue)
- Adult COVID ICU Beds Used (black)
- Pediatric COVID Beds Used (green - subset of red)

/1 New Jersey

Notice 2 main things:

1) COVID-associated surges (red) had no impact on Total Beds Used
2) NJ Staffed Beds (gold) recovered by Jan 2021 and have remained stable ever since

Contrast #2 with NY where Staffed Beds recovered late Dec 2020 and have steadily fallen.

/2
Oct 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
US CoV2 Hospitalization Census Update: 10/7/22

US - All States

- Lowest summer wave so far
- Amplitude similar to 2020 but diverging lower
- History indicates an upturn very soon

Likely to have a similar pattern with lower peak this winter? Thought the same last year, though. NY

- Almost identical to 2021. Fascinating
- Higher than 2020
- Likely to turn up in the next month or so

Though Hosp census is same or higher, this does not seem to reflect in equal deaths.
Jun 24, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Why does US Public Health keep doing this.

@HealthySCC put out this propaganda with false claims and hid more than half the comments.

We all know these claims weren’t proven in the trials.

Why are they doing this?

Why won’t they be honest and attempt to build trust?

/1 1a) Children CAN get very sick? That’s it?

Children CAN get struck by meteorites, but how likely is it?

1b) Vax is the best prevention?

To what degree and compared to what? Being healthy? Prior infection?

Pfizer trial had higher incidence of severe illness in the Vax arm.

/2 Image
Jun 23, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The quotes in this article from Denmark Public Health officials are a must-read for everyone, especially parents of healthy toddlers thinking about vaccinating when no other country is doing it.

Read the article, but here are some key quotes.

/1 Pushing vaccination on kids for the sake of adults is wrong.

/2
Apr 6, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
On the phone now with @RoyalCaribbean in an attempt to "use" credits from the Feb 2021 cancelation.

They require Vax for 12+ and expect to continue this policy after May 31...despite not being required by gov't.

Despite this, they still won't refund our money.

It's criminal. Update:

1) First rep was unhelpful, because she was simply told "no refunds." She tried to convince me the policy "might" change before the credits expire in Dec

2) Escalated to manager who did nothing except parrot the same

3) Sent DM to RC with details - awaiting response
Apr 4, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
For NZ, was it the lag time (#1), definitions (#2), or both?

US is much higher overall, of course, but I expect the US to decline to a similar low point as last June (0.82/M) while NZ/AUS will likely continue to rise into their peak stimulus period.

South Korea lingering.
/1 Image This is the same chart but focused on March 9th right before NZ changed its definitions.

"Ministry announces change to reporting of Covid-19-related deaths": rnz.co.nz/news/national/…

/2 Image
Mar 18, 2022 • 7 tweets • 5 min read
UK Week 11 COVID Update: 3/18/22

Substack link with full write-up linked here.

Subsequent tweets will provide key charts and highlights.

/1

hold2.substack.com/p/england-week… This week, I added a new Unvax column for the ONS Unvax pop denominator.

Let's start with Cases (Raw and Rates):
- Raw Cases of course dominated by 3-Dose
- 3-Dose Case Rates are ALSO dominated by 3-Dose even with both NIMS/ONS denominators
- 3-Dose 2.2-5.4X higher 60+

/2 ImageImage
Mar 16, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
What does it take to get someone in major media to be curious and to actually investigate these obvious and recurring issues that are happening in plain sight but with no retribution.

No punishment. No shame. They just keep doing it.

@davidzweig is the only one trying.

/1 1) CDC Data Tracker shows inflated pediatric deaths far beyond the real source (NCHS).

They know this and instead of fixing, they let a coding error show an INCREASE of 400 over the already inflated number.

It reported and spread widely.

When “fixed,” no retractions made.

/2
Mar 15, 2022 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
UKHSA COVID Denominator Update: NIMS vs. ONS

My goal is to show UK COVID charts with both NIMS & ONS denoms for Unvax.

UKHSA justifies using NIMS.

@jburnmurdoch @PaulMainwood @StatsRegulation
implore using ONS.

But which year?

@sarahknapton @BallouxFrancois @profnfenton
/1 Image Arguments:

UKHSA NIMS justification (img 1)

@StatsRegulation link: osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/communicating-… (img 2&3)

@PaulMainwood thread: (Paul says ONS is also incorrect but that publishing with NIMS is bad)

@jburnmurdoch thread: (img 4)

/2 ImageImageImageImage
Mar 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
NYC COVID Vaccination Update: 3/11/22

The impossible but never acknowledged numbers continue to become more impossible

- More 75+ Unvaxxed than any age group
- More 75+ Unvaxxed than all other adults combined (18-74yo)
- Negative values for 18-24 and 35-44

/1 - More 65+ Unvaxxed than 13-64 combined
- More 65-74 Unvaxxed than 18-24 + 35-64 combined

/2
Mar 11, 2022 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
hold2.substack.com/p/uk-week-10-c… COVID Per 100k - Progression from Week 3 (top) to Week 10 (bottom)

Standard caveat applies for the NIMS vs. ONS denominator argument. Unvax rates may be lower than actual. UKHSA justification attached.

Every outcome shifting rapidly to 3-Dose - faster than vax growth.

/2
Mar 6, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
🌟Nuance vs. Narrative

Should I post Narrative charts without Nuance like all of Media, Public Health, and Check Marks?

Attempting to do it the right way is getting no traction.

No one of importance is curious.

Here's my reversal:
Chart 1 - Narrative
Chart 2 - Nuance

/1 Ambiguous Definitions

Chart 1 - Narrative
Chart 2 - Nuance