Look, I might be an obnoxious Londoner, but I think the Northern Independence Party presents some real challenges for Labour. There's been a lot of talk about the impact of 'splitting the vote', but I think there's more to it than that...
https://twitter.com/FreeNorthNow/status/1376263091915218951
The gamble made by Starmer is that alienating his party's left will be at least cost neutral.
The assumption is that they have no pull with, or indeed actively put off, the bit of the electorate the leadership is focused on winning back (older voters in the North/Midlands).
The assumption is that they have no pull with, or indeed actively put off, the bit of the electorate the leadership is focused on winning back (older voters in the North/Midlands).
The present Labour leadership have been pursuing a 'persuade' rather than 'mobilise' model. Again, there's an embedded assumption that the electorate doesn't really like politics that much, and an engaged membership is actually detrimental to winning people over.
How is this strategy working?
Polling suggests the Greens in England, and Plaid in Wales are peeling off bits of Labour's young and/or progressive voters. There's not been a swing back amongst 2019's Lab-Tory switchers. There's mutterings of dissatisfaction amongst BAME voters.
Polling suggests the Greens in England, and Plaid in Wales are peeling off bits of Labour's young and/or progressive voters. There's not been a swing back amongst 2019's Lab-Tory switchers. There's mutterings of dissatisfaction amongst BAME voters.
A pretty consistent criticism of Starmer - from both the left and right - is that he lacks authenticity. And a pretty big part of that is this constant sense of calibrating how he thinks he comes across to that electoral cohort whose support has been in decline since 2001.
The Northern Independence Party present a challenge to Starmer precisely because they're able to project a sense of authentic identity, tied to place. But there's also that ironic tone, sort of always half taking the piss, which defines how people communicate in digital spaces.
In short, they're not focus-grouped to death before they speak and have found a register which is fairly engaging.
Starmer's bet is that you win back the North by triangulating rightwards, and muzzling your membership.
And the NIP - in the face of a dominant narrative about the North being stale and socially conservative - are embracing polarisation, progressive values, and taking the piss.
And the NIP - in the face of a dominant narrative about the North being stale and socially conservative - are embracing polarisation, progressive values, and taking the piss.
Standing @Thelma_DWalker in Hartlepool is important. She's firmly of the left, disillusioned with Labour under Starmer, a serious organiser with a digital presence, but not a shitposter. I've got no idea how all of this will translate to a ground game in May, but I'm interested!
Will they keep their deposit? It’s an uphill struggle. But they’ve certainly spiced up the by-election.
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