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Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
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29 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
1/x Heck of a trip. On my ✈️ back, expect a full update tonight when I’m back at the desk... For the time being, if this little AM pullback is all that can be managed given, shockingly poor liquidity in a stable market amidst HF liquidation fears, & ‘significant’ bank losses.
2/x That should tell you something. Vanna is still not fully back until 3/31-4/1 but, as mentioned she just dialed in for a late 3/26 push. This is expected digestion following Friday’s steep ramp. Otherwise, systems look primed for a steady grind higher. Expect a bit of 🪓 to
3/x continue, but the next point of 🐔 is the 1.5 std dev up of the 20 day & the market has its 👀 set on playing there by the EOW. Gary is still in control, but should continue to loosen his grip, right as Vanna seems set to returns, so 4/1-4/12 could be a powerful 2 weeks...
4/4 👀rates. 👀NDX for a countertrend move. Dispersion’s still the game this week. Upside cal call spreads in Spx are also interesting given iVol cheapening, w/ST pre-Gd Fri Ivol oversupplied, tethering SPX. Cheap convexity for a fat tail @20 day still ShouldB in the folio. GL!🍀

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More from @jam_croissant

Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
30 Mar
1/x Despite an overwhelming number of fundamental reasons to be 🐻’ish, the 1-2 punch 🥊of 1)a well FED Gary & 2) an increasingly more involved Charm🦥, should continue to support the market until late 3/31st when Vanna should return, fresh from vacay & throwing haymakers...So,
2/x despite all the drama & headlines, stay the course, & expect more digestion... To be clear, normally, given +seasonality, the reopening & the technical strength of the last week, we would normally expect significantly higher prices, but 1)momentum has been waning 2)the NDX
3/x leadership hasn’t been able to regain any semblance of strength 3) the 🐻 steepening of the yield curve continues to scream, now having reached the > the 2/10 spread has seen since 6/2015 4) the DXY is 🆙 1.2% in a week 5) we are staring $136 bill in neg equity flows from
Read 11 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
19 Mar
1/x Precisely on schedule ⏰. The🪟of weakness opened & Oh what a feeling... The correction in price/time we’ve been waiting for has arrived. Our long NDX gamma calls @ the top hedged delta neutral were🥇, allowing us to scalp these monster moves & accumulate long deltas for a
2/x credit, as planned. We are 1/3 of the way to our full delta allocation & watching our 🕰 patiently w/plans to add w/ the passage of time/ price. The new game of 🐔 is likely to be played @ the 20 day tomorrow. We’ll be adding back more hard deltas there or @ the EOD, to get
3/x to 50% w/long gamma. Gary’s still very much in control i is n the SPX, as you can see overnight, This should lead to some cheap offered AM gamma in the NDX and some final AM charm support, before🦥 boards his✈️ to meet Vanna 👸@ the 🏖. As I’ve reiterated, the fat tail driven
Read 6 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
17 Mar
1/x The game of chicken continues...Everything from my TLDR 24x thread from Monday👇still applies... Although, we have managed to close above our highlighted ATH & repair the technical damage from earlier this month, the🪟of weakness officially opens after the open tomorrow.
2/x with Gary impressively over FED, the Vix at its recent floor & Vixperation upon us, that points to a continuation of the tug o war. Unless the FED decides to take the bananas away, all signs now point to a buyable correction in time &/or price w/ a closing stop at the 20 day.
3/x After the Vix print, time has come to nibble on some OTM calls for either stock replacement or hedged delta neutral for long gamma, to be added to after the fed announcement, but before Powell’s testimony. Expect some strength in the morning followed by a brief buyable dip to
Read 4 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
17 Mar
@chicagosean 1/x although I mostly agree w/@OptionPit, I am going to add a little important nuance, b/c as usually the case SPX is not Always better. Other than the notional liquidity of SPX there are several other important factors/ market characteristics that people should be aware of when
@chicagosean @OptionPit 2/x deciding whether to trade SPX vs ES (SPY is an inferior product to SPX) 1)different regulatory requirements- ES is subject to CME SPAN, where as SPX is subject to OCC index risk (generally this is adv. SPX again as OCC is less strenuous -8% +6%) 2)if your portfolio of other
@chicagosean @OptionPit 3/x positions is primarily future based, you will get cross margining benefits from trading es, not SPX. If your portfolio is primarily equities you will get cross margining benefits from SPX not ES. B/c of cost of carry and liquidity benefits of ES, most quant shops hedge trade
Read 7 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
17 Mar
@Garrison1Boston @DougKass @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick @SquawkCNBC 1/x prepandemic subpar growth was a result of deflationary pressures borne out of 40 yrs of supplyside & monetary pol driven Econ policy. ‘Productivity’ has dramatically declined as $$ has been shepherded
towards deflationary forces that have served to winnow the middle class
@Garrison1Boston @DougKass @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick @SquawkCNBC 2/x like globalization, tech replacement of labor, removal of labor rights, a lack of antitrust enforcement, NTM the forces of malinvestment & leverage cap structure. This has hollowed out the growth consumption engine of the US consumer and degraded the fabric of US society that
@Garrison1Boston @DougKass @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick @SquawkCNBC 3/x once served as a major driver for the US as a magnet for those in pursuit of the American dream... But not all is lost. I think if we continue down the same path, yes we will get the same results, but to ignore the changes in economic policy and declare it is back to business
Read 6 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
15 Mar
1/x The moment of truth is upon us... As the market is prone to do, it has rallied to the most critical point & is forcing all but the most resolute 🐻 out of their positions, just as it did w/ the bulls @ the 1 stddev down of the 20 day that we highlighted several weeks ago.
2/x So, for the next couple of days, until quarterly Vixperation, we’ll likely continue to see the markets play a new game of 🐔 w/ our (several months ago called) ATH in March futures of ***3957, which we have once again rejected overnight... as mentioned last
3/x week:the tug-o-war of whether or not we are going to get the blow off top before the decline is on the verge of being decided with this level in the next several days...Be patient. We’ll know a lot more very soon. As we resolve this important inflection point.The price action
Read 24 tweets

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