Gabriel Castro, CFA Profile picture
Mar 29, 2021 8 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Pax Global reported amazing results and uploaded the best presentation I've seen since we became shareholders. Market should ease concerns on capital allocation and Long Term prospects from now. As I said many times, despite the huge price increase, the best is yet to come! 👇 Image
Pax reported 0.83 EPS. It increased 46% due to 44% profit increase and 1.2% share count reduction. The adjusted profit is 0.91 EPS. Minor non-cash impairments due to COVID and the stock option are the differences. Notice that Pax stock option expenses are not recurrent like in US Image
While competitors like Ingenico struggled in 2020, Pax delivered an outstanding growth in all geographies due to its superior Android portfolio and SaaS solution. Moreover,the company didn't rest on their laurels, Pax increased 16% its R&D expenses above of its 15% revenue growth ImageImageImageImage
Despite I've been talking a lot about Pax moat, I feel some investors don't understand it yet. Pax is offering almost for free its amazing SaaS solutions, however, it is an important reason to understand why customers choose Pax before the competitors.

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It is important to highlight that Pax management takes care of its shareholders.Pax increased significantly its dividend during 2020 and initiated a buyback plan for the first time ever. Moreover, Pax is raising 67% is half-year dividend from 6 cents to 10 cents (20 cents annual) ImageImageImage
Despite COVID, Pax managed very well its WK and generated an strong FCF. They guided for double digit growth for 2021. You should remember that Pax guided for flatish growth on 2019 and 2020 and delivered 20% and 46% respectively. As I've said many times, the best is yet to come ImageImage
Summarizing, we can buy Pax that will growth at double digit in the following years at 8x with 45% of its market cap in cash having an aligned and superb management repurchasing shares and increasing the dividend. It is real but I don't expect this inefficiency remains forever
Pax kindly will do an English call at 3pm Spanish time or 9am ET. The company is aware that their shareholder base is international so they do two earning calls. Link for register on tomorrow's call:

us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regist…

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More from @gabcasla

Oct 30, 2023
When I pitch Nagacorp, one of the main pushbacks is around Chinese tourism coming back. More or less, investors understand how profitable and FCF generative the business is, the strong balance sheet and the shareholder-friendly policy

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In 2019, Nagacorp contributed approximately 27% of local GDP tourism growth and approximately 1.2% of the national GDP in Cambodia, therefore, Nagacorp is very correlated with Cambodia's tourism which grew strongly until covid
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By now, the Chinese aren't traveling abroad. Three reasons explain it: 1. Government promotes domestic tourism, 2. Still fear of Covid and problems that might arise if they get infected out of China, 3. Less budget as macro isn't very good

cnbc.com/2023/10/09/chi…
Read 7 tweets
Oct 26, 2023
Nagacorp management are likely in shock after reading Moody's research and the stock reaction. Naga issued and statement confirming the cash position by October 17. It would not be surprising if Naga had not reported the cash on September 30 just 20 days ago! Image
By the end of September, Naga had $298M cash and 472M debt (bond maturity June 2024). Cash has increased to $324M, but some working capital movements exist. Naga is making 28/29M monthly EBITDA or 342M annual EBITDA. Taxes are included while net interest are 30M.
No growth capex as the company has postponed Naga 3, while maintenance capex is 20-30M per year. That means 282M FCF per year and 212M in the next 9 months. 298M cash + 80M dr.Chen loan + 212M cash generation= 590M which is enough to cover 472M payment in June 2024
Read 5 tweets
Oct 24, 2023
Nagacorp: I cannot believe it. Moody's (again) scaring retailers arguing that refinancing risk still exists after Dr. Chen's $80M loan. That explains the recent weakness after removing the refinancing risk:

asgam.com/index.php/2023…
It's funny that the analyst expects $350M EBITDA in 2023 and $485M in 2024 while I'm forecasting 300M for 2023 and 350M for 2024, therefore, taking a much more cautious approach. However, I don't see any refinancing risks, but room enough Image
Naga is making 28/29M EBITDA runrate. Below EBITDA are no taxes, only capex (very limited) and interest costs. Said that, even in a super bearish scenario, Dr. Chen, who owns 70% of Naga, will provide 20-30M extra loan. Sorry, I cannot see the refi risk

Read 5 tweets
Sep 4, 2023
Great write-up on Kistos. Also, video thesis (from min 39). @HiddenValueGems is a well-experienced former sell-side analyst. Definitely, worth following!!

Said that, I'm less optimistic about production. I think his production outlook slightly overvalues the Q10a field. Also, I have my concerns about the Orion oil field. Getting permission depends on the politicians and their incentives are not aligned with Kistos Image
In any other environment, Kistos would have ordered equipment before obtaining the permit, however, right now it is difficult to obtain permits to exploit oil fields despite having the license. The positive: Netherlands is a tinderbox and we have early elections on 22 November
Read 6 tweets
May 21, 2023
$CLCO has been trading weakly in line with LNG spot market rates past weeks. A surplus of gas inventories in Europe, muted Chinese LNG imports which were down 4.8% yoy in 1Q23, and seasonality are the main reasons. However, we are close to the turning point! Image
Current TFDE rates are at $45,000/day, but the forward freight market indicates it will rise to $68,000 in June, $76,000 in July, and $102,000 in August. Moreover, Q4 is expected to average $209,000/day!
LNG contango and Chinese demand picking up are main the drivers ImageImage
This optimism is reflected in the LT charters. $CLCO has announced a 3y charter at $120k/day starting early 2024. Moreover, Marinakis has recently secured 2024 and 2026 deliveries for 10-13y at $105k which looks very well for CoolCo late 2024 newbuildings
tradewindsnews.com/gas/capital-ga…
Read 4 tweets
Mar 23, 2023
I attended the Pax Global call conference and will upload the transcript as soon as it's available. I feel there is more and more interest from investors and I'm pleasantly surprised we've seen Chinese questions for first time (ever?). Really good call, let me explain my thoughts
Pax confirmed my statements. It's not very difficult to understand it if you dig into numbers. Pax is careful about 2023 because Brazil and it's the largest weight. In 1H22 it was 30% of revenue and we'll have to wait until the annual report to know the FY numbers
*Notice that APAC region didn't grow double-digit but because of the Indian currency's strong depreciation and mostly, because of Chinese integration. Chinese numbers are now consolidated in APAC and were declining very fast. The comp effect for next year won't be relevant
Read 9 tweets

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