Pax Global reported amazing results and uploaded the best presentation I've seen since we became shareholders. Market should ease concerns on capital allocation and Long Term prospects from now. As I said many times, despite the huge price increase, the best is yet to come! 👇
Pax reported 0.83 EPS. It increased 46% due to 44% profit increase and 1.2% share count reduction. The adjusted profit is 0.91 EPS. Minor non-cash impairments due to COVID and the stock option are the differences. Notice that Pax stock option expenses are not recurrent like in US
While competitors like Ingenico struggled in 2020, Pax delivered an outstanding growth in all geographies due to its superior Android portfolio and SaaS solution. Moreover,the company didn't rest on their laurels, Pax increased 16% its R&D expenses above of its 15% revenue growth
Despite I've been talking a lot about Pax moat, I feel some investors don't understand it yet. Pax is offering almost for free its amazing SaaS solutions, however, it is an important reason to understand why customers choose Pax before the competitors.
It is important to highlight that Pax management takes care of its shareholders.Pax increased significantly its dividend during 2020 and initiated a buyback plan for the first time ever. Moreover, Pax is raising 67% is half-year dividend from 6 cents to 10 cents (20 cents annual)
Despite COVID, Pax managed very well its WK and generated an strong FCF. They guided for double digit growth for 2021. You should remember that Pax guided for flatish growth on 2019 and 2020 and delivered 20% and 46% respectively. As I've said many times, the best is yet to come
Summarizing, we can buy Pax that will growth at double digit in the following years at 8x with 45% of its market cap in cash having an aligned and superb management repurchasing shares and increasing the dividend. It is real but I don't expect this inefficiency remains forever
Pax kindly will do an English call at 3pm Spanish time or 9am ET. The company is aware that their shareholder base is international so they do two earning calls. Link for register on tomorrow's call:
Yesterday, Jefferies raised TP on $NMM up to $80. Omar sees the company undervalued from a NAV perspective ($155 NAV vs 57 current price), but more importantly on FCF (25% FCF yield) with room to grow because the newbuildings to be delivered
Navios is a unique shipping company with exposure to three segments: tankers, dry bulk, and containerships. Those segments have their own supply/demand dynamics and provide fantastic stability. That means NMM can play spot or take longer charters, depending on the cycle view
For example, knowing the order book, I think it's wise to have a longer duration on containers and play the spot in Capes/VLCCs where there is less backlog and compelling demand while being a bit more conservative on the smaller sizes. That's precisely what NMM is doing right now
$NMM The stock is up almost 90% YTD adding around $25/sh. However, the stock is still ridiculously cheap!
As I recently recently in an interview with @MarhelmData, NAV is up around $40/sh YTD (from $90/100 to 130/140) and could reach $150 by the year end. JF estimates a $158 NAV!
Moreover, NMM is nearing its leverage target and has recently started buybacks. There is no need to explain how accretive these repurchases are to NAV given the current discounts.
AF is renewing the fleet without taking risks. She understands that newbuildings are expensive from an historical perspective, so she always try to mitigate the residual value risk with LT charters. We've seen between 50 to 100% paybacks on acquisitions by the end of the charters
Pax Global communicated a Profit Warning last Friday in line with HK regulations. In the statement, Pax announced that they expect a 30% to 40% decrease in net profit compared to 1H 2023.
Although it could surprise many of you, it's not that bad when you dive in 👇
Last March, Pax announced an ambitious guidance. They were looking to grow 5%/15% in revenue and maintain a stable operating margin. That was somewhat surprising considering the POS business has a high dependence on the retail sector and the retail environment is very tough
POS replacement happens every 4-5 years and provides stability to Pax, but the POS segment needs new shop openings to grow. Closings and openings are a key driver, and shops are resisting nowadays, but demand is weak in the current interest environment
When I pitch Nagacorp, one of the main pushbacks is around Chinese tourism coming back. More or less, investors understand how profitable and FCF generative the business is, the strong balance sheet and the shareholder-friendly policy
In 2019, Nagacorp contributed approximately 27% of local GDP tourism growth and approximately 1.2% of the national GDP in Cambodia, therefore, Nagacorp is very correlated with Cambodia's tourism which grew strongly until covid
By now, the Chinese aren't traveling abroad. Three reasons explain it: 1. Government promotes domestic tourism, 2. Still fear of Covid and problems that might arise if they get infected out of China, 3. Less budget as macro isn't very good
Nagacorp management are likely in shock after reading Moody's research and the stock reaction. Naga issued and statement confirming the cash position by October 17. It would not be surprising if Naga had not reported the cash on September 30 just 20 days ago!
By the end of September, Naga had $298M cash and 472M debt (bond maturity June 2024). Cash has increased to $324M, but some working capital movements exist. Naga is making 28/29M monthly EBITDA or 342M annual EBITDA. Taxes are included while net interest are 30M.
No growth capex as the company has postponed Naga 3, while maintenance capex is 20-30M per year. That means 282M FCF per year and 212M in the next 9 months. 298M cash + 80M dr.Chen loan + 212M cash generation= 590M which is enough to cover 472M payment in June 2024
Nagacorp: I cannot believe it. Moody's (again) scaring retailers arguing that refinancing risk still exists after Dr. Chen's $80M loan. That explains the recent weakness after removing the refinancing risk:
It's funny that the analyst expects $350M EBITDA in 2023 and $485M in 2024 while I'm forecasting 300M for 2023 and 350M for 2024, therefore, taking a much more cautious approach. However, I don't see any refinancing risks, but room enough
Naga is making 28/29M EBITDA runrate. Below EBITDA are no taxes, only capex (very limited) and interest costs. Said that, even in a super bearish scenario, Dr. Chen, who owns 70% of Naga, will provide 20-30M extra loan. Sorry, I cannot see the refi risk