Yesterday, Jefferies raised TP on $NMM up to $80. Omar sees the company undervalued from a NAV perspective ($155 NAV vs 57 current price), but more importantly on FCF (25% FCF yield) with room to grow because the newbuildings to be delivered





Navios is a unique shipping company with exposure to three segments: tankers, dry bulk, and containerships. Those segments have their own supply/demand dynamics and provide fantastic stability. That means NMM can play spot or take longer charters, depending on the cycle view

$NMM The stock is up almost 90% YTD adding around $25/sh. However, the stock is still ridiculously cheap!
As I recently recently in an interview with @MarhelmData, NAV is up around $40/sh YTD (from $90/100 to 130/140) and could reach $150 by the year end. JF estimates a $158 NAV! Moreover, NMM is nearing its leverage target and has recently started buybacks. There is no need to explain how accretive these repurchases are to NAV given the current discounts.

Pax Global communicated a Profit Warning last Friday in line with HK regulations. In the statement, Pax announced that they expect a 30% to 40% decrease in net profit compared to 1H 2023.
Although it could surprise many of you, it's not that bad when you dive in 👇 Last March, Pax announced an ambitious guidance. They were looking to grow 5%/15% in revenue and maintain a stable operating margin. That was somewhat surprising considering the POS business has a high dependence on the retail sector and the retail environment is very tough

When I pitch Nagacorp, one of the main pushbacks is around Chinese tourism coming back. More or less, investors understand how profitable and FCF generative the business is, the strong balance sheet and the shareholder-friendly policy



In 2019, Nagacorp contributed approximately 27% of local GDP tourism growth and approximately 1.2% of the national GDP in Cambodia, therefore, Nagacorp is very correlated with Cambodia's tourism which grew strongly until covid

Nagacorp management are likely in shock after reading Moody's research and the stock reaction. Naga issued and statement confirming the cash position by October 17. It would not be surprising if Naga had not reported the cash on September 30 just 20 days ago! By the end of September, Naga had $298M cash and 472M debt (bond maturity June 2024). Cash has increased to $324M, but some working capital movements exist. Naga is making 28/29M monthly EBITDA or 342M annual EBITDA. Taxes are included while net interest are 30M.

Nagacorp: I cannot believe it. Moody's (again) scaring retailers arguing that refinancing risk still exists after Dr. Chen's $80M loan. That explains the recent weakness after removing the refinancing risk:

asgam.com/index.php/2023… It's funny that the analyst expects $350M EBITDA in 2023 and $485M in 2024 while I'm forecasting 300M for 2023 and 350M for 2024, therefore, taking a much more cautious approach. However, I don't see any refinancing risks, but room enough

Great write-up on Kistos. Also, video thesis (from min 39). @HiddenValueGems is a well-experienced former sell-side analyst. Definitely, worth following!!

Said that, I'm less optimistic about production. I think his production outlook slightly overvalues the Q10a field. Also, I have my concerns about the Orion oil field. Getting permission depends on the politicians and their incentives are not aligned with Kistos

$CLCO has been trading weakly in line with LNG spot market rates past weeks. A surplus of gas inventories in Europe, muted Chinese LNG imports which were down 4.8% yoy in 1Q23, and seasonality are the main reasons. However, we are close to the turning point! Current TFDE rates are at $45,000/day, but the forward freight market indicates it will rise to $68,000 in June, $76,000 in July, and $102,000 in August. Moreover, Q4 is expected to average $209,000/day!
LNG contango and Chinese demand picking up are main the drivers

I attended the Pax Global call conference and will upload the transcript as soon as it's available. I feel there is more and more interest from investors and I'm pleasantly surprised we've seen Chinese questions for first time (ever?). Really good call, let me explain my thoughts Pax confirmed my statements. It's not very difficult to understand it if you dig into numbers. Pax is careful about 2023 because Brazil and it's the largest weight. In 1H22 it was 30% of revenue and we'll have to wait until the annual report to know the FY numbers

Pax Global reported strong results, growing its EPS by 18%. Moreover, the company raised +27% the dividend to 0.19 HKD (from 0.15 last year) increasing the payout ratio to 31%. Pax becomes shareholder friendly those last years distributing up to 1bn while 7.6bn market cap Results were great, although I was a bit more optimistic. EMEA and LACIS come slightly weaker while APAC and USCA in line. Also, Pax invested heavily in R&D, otherwise, EPS would have grown >25%. Be aware R&D expenses are in yuan which depreciated 10%, so that's a huge increase

Si algo tenemos que destacar de Embracer es la figura de Lars. Excelente gestor capaz de componer a tasas extraordinarias. Tras recibir un feedback negativo por parte de sus accionistas a su idea de escindir dos grupos operativos, considero que la compañía ha descartado la opción Sin embargo, creo que el mercado infravalora el próximo paso. Lars espera firmar acuerdos transformativos en las próximas semanas. Esto aumentará el FCF y reducirá significativamente el riesgo, lo que debería de llevar a un fuerte re-rating! La caja abrirá nuevas posibilidades

Gas prices have been falling steadily in recent months, reaching the lowest price since the beginning of the war. How did we get here? What can we expect now? There are many questions. Let me explain my thoughts in the following thread 👇 Unlike the stock market, where prices are based on discounted future cash flows, gas prices are formed based on current supply and demand. Commodities trade on the basis of the present, while stocks trade based on expectations and sentiment.

February 2023 and Golar stock is trading far from its highs.Despite I firmly believe the company is going to announce at least 2 FLNGs +a new Hilli charter that will justify a TP price above $60, let's make some numbers in order to prove that $GLNG has a big upside without growth At this point, you may think that I'm wrong and I'm nuts. But let's dive in:
What we know? Golar has Hilli operating at 54% capacity with a charter until mid-2026, plus Gimi starting by late 2023. Also, a strong BS with 850M net cash (including stakes worth 100M)

Golar's recent weakness driven by warm European weather makes no sense. Based on the current inventory and weather forecast, we should now assume lower TTF prices than initially expected, but you should remember Golar cash flow has no sensibility to 2023 gas prices fluctuations Golar managed to hedge 2023 and half of 2024 TTF exposure at astonishing prices meaning that 2023 and 2024 FCF will be in excess of 560M (after debt amortization) or around 25% FCF yield based on current market cap (not even considering net cash or other holdings)

Good readings for Golar from Kosmos results:
1. Tortue phase 1 is on time (Gimi 85% completed)
2. Phase 2 implies a low cost solution and will be FID in the coming months. Likely Golar's MK2 solution
3. Golar's integrated project is imminent (Fortuna FLNG) According to the news, Fortuna project will be owned by Golar (30%), NFE (30%), Kosmos and GEPetrol (20% each).I expect Golar to provide the FLNG
As you can see, two of the three FLNG I expect for the next 18 months are well advanced. It's a matter of time
seekingalpha.com/article/454987…

Many of you have come to me to let me know that you have started paying through Pax Global when you've never seen it before. You are not alone, I am in the US and I am experiencing how even in the states they are embracing Pax technology as it is much better than the competition I expect Pax growing at double digit during the next decade as its market share is still very small and the structural sector growth. Globalization, digitalization, automation and ease and government fighting against fraud are supporting that rapid growth!

Four reasons and my related opinion about why Kistos share price has fallen 27% since late August killing most of the ytd gains. Before reading, be aware that Kistos is one of our TOP equity and bond picks. $KIST Thread!

https://twitter.com/gabcasla/status/1546403066135678977?s=20&t=1Usz-2xH1sQmbslNEQOlNw

Reason 1: TTF hit a new historical record at €340/MWh by late August and dropped to the current €190 killing gas stocks momentum. The correction was because EU positively surprised the market filling the storage faster than expected

As the current forward curve suggests, the European gas price will remain tight in the coming years. It's not about the demand, is the supply not being enough even in a recession. I'll show you our plays on this theme, but let's first talk about why we are so confident European gas prices averaged around €15.5/MWh in 2016-20 versus the current price €200/MWh. That is equivalent to more than $300 oil and, despite demand weakening and storage capacity is in line with the 5y average, nor the current gas price nor forward curve are plummeting!

Pax Global earning call transcript available at the end of the thread
The report was very strong achieving +26% in revenues and 36% in profits on a tough comparable basis. Also, Pax increased 42% the dividend and buybacks, showing that shareholders come first Developed countries (USA and EMEA) drove Pax profits. I'd say Pax has a powerful moat in these regions and strong growth will continue. Unique supply chain capable of fulfilling orders in time, amazing Android product ahead of competitors and unique Android platform

Best wedding gift I could get from Angeliki. Less than 48 hours to my wedding and "if rumours are confirmed" she will finally announce a big buyback program tomorrow during the earning results. This plan will create an enormous value to NMM shareholders
tradewindsnews.com/finance/navios… But let's go one step back. NMM has just announced that is buying all NM drybulk fleet in a $835M deal. I like this deal as it removes NM overhang. The deal is fair as it is advised by Jefferies and NSAL, which is a very difficult asset to value, is out of the deal

@Elementcapl @CapitalValor I've been following Pax Global since 2017 and started buying Pax in 2018 and wrote an in-depth analysis at the end of 2019 (updated early 2020). Aslo, my twitter is full of information about the company. Just scroll down!

https://twitter.com/gabcasla/status/1248273122190598149

@Elementcapl @CapitalValor Pax superior products hit the market in 2019/20 and R&D expenses could no longer hide the staggering growth even though R&D continues to grow in absolute terms. The company reported 46% and 20% eps growth in 20/21, at the same time, they repurchased shares and increased the divi