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Gilles Demaneuf Profile picture
@gdemaneuf
Mar 29, 2021 • 10 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
@MFA_China Why don't you start by scientifically explaining the obvious manipulations of the 2019 cases by China?

Here is a good start from your very own CDC (27th Jan 20): Image
@MFA_China I have a full catalogue of your 'disappearing' confirmed cases.
pihabeach.micro.blog/2021/03/22/am-…

I am not sure what your definition of science is, but mine does not allow for crude lies and manipulations. Image
@MFA_China With a good example of the CDC gag order of the 25th Feb 2020 at play:

@MFA_China But there is plenty more.

Just read our 'Silent Numbers', or the systematic distortion and misreporting of 2019 cases.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Image
@MFA_China And since China is so transparent, could it actually release the WHO investigation report of the very bad SARS leaks at the top Chinese P3 (Beijing) in 2003?

Funny enough, it was never made public!
That's transparency with Chinese characteristics.

gillesdemaneuf.medium.com/the-good-the-b…
@MFA_China Is it because it exposed crass incompetence and incredible bad practices, such as a SARS sample fridge moved into the corridor outside of the lab, without forgetting an attempted cover-up?

news.sina.com.cn/c/2004-07-12/1… Image
@MFA_China Or maybe you could tell us how China was moving (disappearing) about a 100 patients out of hospitals to hotel rooms, or just driving them in ambulances, when the WHO was investigating the SARS outbreak in Beijing in 2003?

smh.com.au/national/sars-…
@MFA_China Or again:
washingtonpost.com/archive/politi…
@MFA_China And don't forget to tell us how China tried to blame Hong Kong and even Thailand for the SARS outbreak in Beijing.

Bad habits die hard...

tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.101… Image
@MFA_China Blame anybody (Italy, France, Spain, US, etc) but China - that's the usual answer of the Chinese government to epidemics.

Unfortunately everybody can see through your BS.

Sorry, I know, it's so unfair - China is just a victim of the West.

link.springer.com/content/pdf/10… Image

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More from @gdemaneuf

Gilles Demaneuf Profile picture
May 8
Daszak did 4 months of detention in 1986 for stealing a TV set, a hi-fi, a statue and some other items, so that he could indulge in his alcohol fuelled ‘fun’ at other people’s expense.

This fraud later managed to get hold of 100s millions of US taxpayers money.
Someone saw through him very early:

“Judge Lloyd-Jones told Daszak that he had been given more chances than most and had abused other people trust.”
Daszak was such a precocious character:

“He is being maintained by the State at a cost of GBP 1,500 per year, and this is the way he repays the state”.
Read 8 tweets
Gilles Demaneuf Profile picture
Apr 4
Another retraction for Robert Garry.

I may be losing track, but it is at least his third retraction.
There is also on expression of concern for one of his papers.
@thackerpd @KatherineEban @emilyakopp
See previous thread:
At this stage that should raise alarm bells all around.

Next one should be Proximal Origin.
Read 4 tweets
Gilles Demaneuf Profile picture
Mar 13
Here is an important reminder to the Kindergarten epidemiologists who aim to compare themselves to John Snow.

Epidemiology 101:
John Snow never considered his map as proving anything. He relied on fortuitous control groups and cases reviews to establish causality
@mvankerkhoveImage
See for instance this image and extract from a recent paper:

Confirmation of the centrality of the Huanan market among early COVID-19 cases
Reply to Stoyan and Chiu (2024)
arxiv.org/pdf/2403.05859…

Image
Image
John Snow was not a colourist of maps, sorry.

I know that popular culture has transformed the Broad Street map into a meme, but that is totally wrong and can only hurt the discipline.
@RichardKock6 @JamieMetzl Image
Read 16 tweets
Gilles Demaneuf Profile picture
Mar 12
1/10 Good Judgment superforecast on COVID-19 Origins:
#DRASTIC Image
2/10 Final probabilities of a research-related accident: Image
3/10 Final probabilities of zoonosis: Image
Read 10 tweets
Gilles Demaneuf Profile picture
Feb 16
1/5 It is difficult to be more mistaken than Robert Garry below, when discussing a supposed essential finding of Worobey et al:

@TheJohnSudworth @MichaelWorobey @hfeldwisch Image
2/5 As a matter of fact, that pattern is exactly the one expected if proximity to the market was used as a criteria when identifying cases (as is amply recorded).

Going further, there is no easy way to explain that pattern otherwise.

Here is the mathematically correct version:Image
3/5 This was first pointed out by @mbw61567742.

Here is my explanation in simple words:
Read 5 tweets
Gilles Demaneuf Profile picture
Feb 3
1/26 My comments about this just published poling of experts, examining their opinions on the plausible origins of Covid-19.

There is a lot to unpack. Much more than I have seen so far in reductive tweets.

So here it is.

@RogerPielkeJr @BallouxFrancois
2/26 First, a key limitation:

Polling must have been done before Oct 2023, so before:
- Key Science erratum for Pekar et al (invalidated their model)
- Peer reviewed paper showing key statistical flaw in Worobey et al
- DEFUSE draft showing planned work at P2 in China and more Image
3/26 Then we need cumulative numbers to express the results in a natural way:

- For 19% of experts, a research accident is at least 50% likely
- For 44.6% of experts, a research accident is at least 20% likely
- For 61.3% of experts, a research accident is at least 10% likely Image
Read 26 tweets

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