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Gilles Demaneuf Profile picture
Gilles Demaneuf
@gdemaneuf
Pointy Head. Opinions, analyses and views expressed are purely mine and should not in any way be characterised as representing any institution or company.
Consciousness in the universe Profile picture Ava Profile picture rue de la Coussaye Profile picture The Millennial VC Profile picture Steve Simpson Profile picture 18 subscribed
Jun 8 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Fauci did the biodefense work he was asked to do back in 2002/3 when this was largely transferred to him under the NIH.

That’s the issue.
And that’s why there is a consensus not to go after him, while avoiding the biodefense can of worms. As China was started to steam ahead on its own in 2017-18, be it sampling, GoF or various synthetic biology experiments, EHA was starting to be left behind.

EHA tried to stay on the train with the GVP and DEFUSE. That failed, as the risk-reward equations looked bad.

But within the NIH grants framework, Daszak was able to obfuscate his difficulties just enough, while the NIH was clueless enough to keep the game going into new territories.

Then as the degrading picture became more clear, some on the Track II Biodefense side thought that this was basically the only chance left to keep a seat on that train.

So, just at the time when it was losing control, the NIH looked the other way.
Jun 6 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
1/8 The story of one of the worst policy failures in US history in a nutshell, as an introduction to my latest work on the USAID and EHA grants in South East Asia:

Left Behind:
@emilyakopp @natashaloder @zeynep @KatherineEban Image 2/8 Limited Options: Image
May 30 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
1/11 Question for @COVIDSelect:

How come that Daszak's R01 AI110964 lists San Pya clinic (Myanmar) and Institut Pasteur (Cambodia) as in-country partners, when in fact these confirmed that they were NEVER contacted by EHA and have no idea why they are showing up on the grant? Image 2/11 Not only that, but the April 2020 update by EHA positively states that San Pya Clinic and Institut Pasteur Cambodia performed their assigned tasks and sent their samples to the WIV.

@emilyakopp @KatherineEban
Image
Image
May 8 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Daszak did 4 months of detention in 1986 for stealing a TV set, a hi-fi, a statue and some other items, so that he could indulge in his alcohol fuelled ‘fun’ at other people’s expense.

This fraud later managed to get hold of 100s millions of US taxpayers money. Someone saw through him very early:

“Judge Lloyd-Jones told Daszak that he had been given more chances than most and had abused other people trust.”
Apr 4 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Another retraction for Robert Garry.

I may be losing track, but it is at least his third retraction.
There is also on expression of concern for one of his papers.
@thackerpd @KatherineEban @emilyakopp See previous thread:
Mar 13 • 16 tweets • 7 min read
Here is an important reminder to the Kindergarten epidemiologists who aim to compare themselves to John Snow.

Epidemiology 101:
John Snow never considered his map as proving anything. He relied on fortuitous control groups and cases reviews to establish causality
@mvankerkhoveImage See for instance this image and extract from a recent paper:

Confirmation of the centrality of the Huanan market among early COVID-19 cases
Reply to Stoyan and Chiu (2024)
arxiv.org/pdf/2403.05859…

Image
Image
Mar 12 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
1/10 Good Judgment superforecast on COVID-19 Origins:
#DRASTIC Image 2/10 Final probabilities of a research-related accident: Image
Feb 16 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/5 It is difficult to be more mistaken than Robert Garry below, when discussing a supposed essential finding of Worobey et al:

@TheJohnSudworth @MichaelWorobey @hfeldwisch Image 2/5 As a matter of fact, that pattern is exactly the one expected if proximity to the market was used as a criteria when identifying cases (as is amply recorded).

Going further, there is no easy way to explain that pattern otherwise.

Here is the mathematically correct version:Image
Feb 3 • 26 tweets • 8 min read
1/26 My comments about this just published poling of experts, examining their opinions on the plausible origins of Covid-19.

There is a lot to unpack. Much more than I have seen so far in reductive tweets.

So here it is.

@RogerPielkeJr @BallouxFrancois 2/26 First, a key limitation:

Polling must have been done before Oct 2023, so before:
- Key Science erratum for Pekar et al (invalidated their model)
- Peer reviewed paper showing key statistical flaw in Worobey et al
- DEFUSE draft showing planned work at P2 in China and more Image
Jan 19 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Some key points in relation to DEFUSE and the latest revelations about it:

- The ODNI (Office of the Director of National Intelligence) likely never provided DEFUSE to the intel agencies before their Aug 21 report assessments for the Biden intel report.
- Between Aug 21 (end of agencies drafting) and Oct 21 (when ODNI released its long form Biden report), ODNI did not ask either for an update based on DEFUSE we (DRASTIC) published in Sep 21.
Dec 31, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/4 Memory lane #2

Exactly 4 years ago, on 30 Dec 2019, after a review of SARS-CoV-2 sequence with the WIV, all known cases were transferred to the negative pressure ward of Jin Yin-tan Hospital, using negative pressure ambulances disinfected after each trip. Image 2/4 The WIV, based on Vision Medicals´ sequence, had confirmed the danger that the virus likely represented at ~10pm on the 27 Dec.

From there, Jin-Yin-tan hospital (which did the review with the WIV) decided to take no risk.

archive.ph/xmPCZ
archive.ph/MiVR0
Dec 7, 2023 • 25 tweets • 11 min read
1/25 Since Daszak seems to be willing to discuss his DEFUSE failure, let me give you a bit of context and info.. Image 2/25 DEFUSE was Daszak's proposal for the PREEMPT program launched by DARPA.

The director of DARPA’s Biological Technologies Office (BTO) in 2018 was Dr Bradley Ringeisen. He was quite new to the job, having joined in Dec 2016 as deputy director of the BTO. Image
Oct 28, 2023 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
1/11 The implications of Pekar et al (2022) correction are not very clear, due to the obfuscation of the erratum in Science and the silence of the authors.

The example below is typical: it starts with a misrepresentation and ends up with an attack on @jbloom_lab. Image 2/11 The thread quoted above and Science itself both give the impression that the correction is mainly in the figure below.

But in fact that correction, from 0.5% to 3.1%, is hardly worth mentioning, as it relates only to scenarios for a SINGLE introduction of SARS-CoV-2. Image
Sep 21, 2023 • 35 tweets • 15 min read
1/35 This is a quick thread about NIH Grant R01 A1139092, 'Structure-based design of coronavirus subunit vaccines'

That grant had for principal investigator Lanying Du, alleged wife of Yusen Zhou, the Chinese PLA scientist who apparently died in mysterious circumstances. Image 2/35 Lanying Du works at the New York Blood Centre and is a well-known coronavirus vaccine expert, as was her husband, Yusen Zhou.

He supposedly fell to his death from the roof of his main workplace, the PLA Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology.

image: @RdeMaistre Image
Sep 7, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Some common sense. The DEEP VZN was a post-outbreak reduced version of the Global Virome Project.

For the GVP, see this thread:
Sep 5, 2023 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
1/10 Just a reminder:

SARS-CoV-2 was sequenced and analysed on 26/27 Dec 2019 by Vision Medicals, which made it clear at the time that the virus was likely dangerous.

On 27 Dec, the virus was shared with the WIV, which confirmed Vision Medicals analysis and the risk of H2H. Image 2/10 Huang Chaolin (dean of Jin Yin-tan hospital in Wuhan) and Zhang Dingyu (director) wanted to understand how dangerous the virus was before taking in patients.

Hence, they looped the WIV in for a second analysis in the evening of 27 Dec.
See source: archive.ph/X6ceh
Image
Aug 23, 2023 • 25 tweets • 7 min read
1/16 Here is my latest piece of research for #DRASTIC and the 'Paris Group':

'Limitations of the official 2019 Wuhan cases (based on Primary Sources)'

Link for Google slides:
Link for PDF version: bit.ly/IssuesEarlyWuh…
bit.ly/PDF_IssuesWith…
Image 2/16 This presentation was sent to the @WHO SAGO and @mvankerkhove on 8 August.

The secretariat kindly acknowledged reception. I have not heard anything back since then.

Here is the e-mail I sent them:
@JamieMetzl @ewinsberg @KatherineEban Image
Jul 31, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
2nd century AD use of perspective. Mars and Venus, Botticelli, 1485: Image
Jul 28, 2023 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
1/14 The latest episode of Prof. Kekulé's podcast on MDR is nearly fully dedicated to the questions of the origins.

In it, @AlexanderKekule offers a fairly balanced assessment of the origins.
#DRASTIC @JamieMetzl @thedeadhandbook @BallouxFrancois
https://t.co/p90zkD2MRgmdr.de/nachrichten/po…
Image 2/14 Over nearly one hour, Kekulé explains that:

Both zoonosis and research-related accident are fully valid hypotheses. The Lancet letter of Daszak was a huge mistake which has poisoned the debate ever since: Image
Jul 24, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
1/9 The story of Proximal Origin in just one remarkable FOI page! 👇🏻👀

#RetractProximalOrigins #DRASTIC
@NateSilver538 @Tantalite @RogerPielkeJr @RVAwonk Image 2/9 As explained before, Jeremy Farrar had his reasons to craft a 'GO TO SCIENTIFIC STATEMENT THAT WILL BECOME THE REFERENCE'.

He had to take care of (1) the needs for access of the WHO (ahead of its Feb 2020 mission), and (2) the imperatives of the NIH:
Jul 18, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Access, access, access..

The Lipkin's testimony is rather interesting. Image also: Image