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Willy Woo Profile picture
@woonomic
Mar 31, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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A time-lapse map of the price when coins last moved.

Clusters of strong price discovery:
$55k (7% of supply last moved above this)
$47k (15%)

$46.4k is the price I'm modelling that we won't visit again during in this bull market (daily close).
Shear cliffs are areas where coin supply moves steeply upwards in price discovery. (green)

Flows downwards are bear market movements where coins move downwards to lower prices, investors accepting losses (red).
Horizontal bands are dense areas of where coins last moved, hence strong price discovery, acting as support and resistance.
Full picture
This supply profile map is simply a contour visualisation of @glassnode's URPD charts across different dates.

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More from @woonomic

Willy Woo Profile picture
Apr 27
BTC fundamentals have turned bullish, not a bad setup to break all time highs.

I took a break from X to enjoy the NZ summer but every week I put out a series of analysis to my subscribers (this is a hobby, NOT a long term project).

Thought I'd post this update publicly.
Capital flows into the network are ramping up.

Both total and speculative flows have bottomed, when both align they join forces to make a bullish environment anchored in fundamentals. Image
Our Risk Model has started its trend back down. This means liquidity has returned to the market.

Downside pull backs will be muted in this enviroment. Image
Read 6 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
Dec 8, 2024
If you understand this chart deeply, you'll understand the money over the next 1000s of years will be secured by energy.

... and we're lucky to be born in a very special time. Image
Gold+Silver has been money for thousands of years.

Every empire used Gold+Silver or backed their paper with it.

Let's forget fiat, that's not money, that's currency to tie over a 53 year liquidity crisis, and it will pass like all fiat attempts in the past.
Gold+Silver worked because it was hard to dig out of the ground.

That's no longer true. Tech is going exponential.

Gold+Silver will fail.
Read 7 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
Nov 11, 2024
How can $MSTR possibly trade at 2.7x their BTC treasury?

I suspect we are seeing the start of $5-10b of inflows in anticipation of a SP500 listing right now.

If true, then it's still warming up.
Consider 20-30% of the SP500's $50T marketcap comes from passive index tracking funds and ETFs.

Inclusion into the SP500 means MSTR gets a chunk of that money.

Inflow estimates:
$10-15b from passive index tracker funds
$5-10b additional from speculative inflows Image
When would it happen?

FASB accounting practices go live for MSTR on 1st Jan 2025, that's a prerequisite before a listing can take place. After that MSTR will meet most of the requirements, with the last requirement being a committee decision.
Read 6 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
Sep 27, 2024
HOW TO STAY POOR

If you save in cash under the mattress, the government #debasement would have stolen half of its value in 10 short years. Image
HOW TO NOT STAY POOR

#Gold is "how not to be shafted" technology.

People for 6000 years have held it in order to not get butt reamed by their governments. Image
HOW TO GET WEALTHY

Have you noticed we once own ploughs, our parents had cars, we have mobile intelligent supercomputers, and our kids will by tickets to Mars?

You can own a slice of that trend by buying stocks.

It easily beats a lump of yellow metal. Image
Read 5 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
Aug 21, 2024
I've been on RnR for a while, but...

Here's the chart I like best to set the scene.

Less inventory = bullish

Until the start of Aug, we've been in a bearish stance with an influx of 100k coins (Germany, MtGox, DOJ) while speculation has been rife creating more paper BTC. Image
The price crash during the start of Aug flushed out much of the paper with a nice round of liquidations... open interest got wiped.

That's a healthy reset of open value (paper bets). It's really hard for BTC to climb when there's overheated speculation in the market. Image
This mid-June assessment is still in play.

BTC price action needs to get really boring.

I feel like we are 66% the way there. Much of the speculation has left, we still need more of the spot BTC to be absorbed.

Read 5 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
Jul 23, 2024
Here's the 5 macro signals I'm looking closely at right now for #Bitcoin.

3 bullish, 2 bearish...
Miners capitulation is over, it's one of the most reliable bullish indicators.

Hash rate is recovering, the price and hash rate bottom coincided with upgrades to next gen hardware hitting the network.

M66s went live last week.

S21 Pros this week.

Hash rate set to scream. Image
Miner capitulation is a very responsive indicator. The breakout was preluded with hash rate recovery; price responded within a day. I gave early warning of this.

When it kicks in we normally have months of bullishness.

Read 10 tweets

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