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Willy Woo Profile picture
@woonomic
Mar 31, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
A time-lapse map of the price when coins last moved.

Clusters of strong price discovery:
$55k (7% of supply last moved above this)
$47k (15%)

$46.4k is the price I'm modelling that we won't visit again during in this bull market (daily close).
Shear cliffs are areas where coin supply moves steeply upwards in price discovery. (green)

Flows downwards are bear market movements where coins move downwards to lower prices, investors accepting losses (red).
Horizontal bands are dense areas of where coins last moved, hence strong price discovery, acting as support and resistance.
Full picture
This supply profile map is simply a contour visualisation of @glassnode's URPD charts across different dates.

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More from @woonomic

Willy Woo Profile picture
Jul 8
Market overview of the current state of #Bitcoin demand and supply.

- miners ⛏️
- German govt 🤡
- ETFs 🏦
- Futures 🎲🎰

Punctuated in emojis for ELI5ers.

🧵
Miner capitulation.

Are we there yet? Nope.

Until hash rate climbs, as seen in a ribbon recovery, the local environment is bearish. Miners are selling off, happens every time after the halving.

Almost always a good buy entry happens when the ribbon recovers.

🧸→🐂 Image
The star of the FUD is the German govt selling of their confiscated BTC.

Remember the movie2k guys hodled from 2013, getting way over 100x appreciation to around $3b.

Germany now has custody, uh oh... immediately decides to sell 🤡.

Best comment 🥇: "this is bullish, when was the last time Germany made a good decision?"

But I digress.

They have sold 10k BTC so far.

Looks like market orders, which further dumps the price reducing their own money. 🤡

Rumour has it they have now moved to an OTC desk to let the pros handle it.

This will reduce the severity of price impact but not negate it. OTC desks will go to the markets to fill any mismatch between buyers and sellers.

39.8k BTC left to sell.

🤡🧸Image
Read 11 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
Jun 24
I don't usually do short time frame price action as it's the domain of gamblers. But worth a break down of what's happening given the fear in the market...

We've been flushing out the leverage, 62.5k was the target to get most of it.

Until...
...speculators kept adding to new long positions, just adding more fuel for more liquidations in a cascading long squeeze.

Bridging us down to the 58k cluster, which just got taken out. Image
Superimposed on this liquidation squeeze, we have a post halving miners capitulation. Miners are on a BTC selling spree to pay for hardware upgrades due to the old hardware no longer being profitable. The weakest miners closing shop and being liquidated.

Read 8 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
Jun 14
ETFs are buying...

Institutions are buying...

Who the hell is selling?

2024 brought a mass of commentators looking at ETFs flows, as if that's all that matters.

What matters is total demand and supply.

Here's a 101 thread on how the modern #Bitcoin market works.
First, let me tell you who is selling.

The OGs. They are selling

They have more BTC than all the ETFs put together... 10x more.

And they sell into every bull market.

This pattern is as old as the genesis block.

Chart below: the age x amount of coins being sold. Image
We are now in the modern age of BTC.

Paper BTC has flooded the market since 2017.

Futures markets.

If you want to buy BTC, it used to be you had to buy real BTC.

You can now buy paper BTC. Thus a no-coiner can sell you that paper.

Together you have made a synthetic BTC.
Read 7 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
Apr 15
Want to know which indicator called the last 2 large corrections within hours?

It's the moon. I shit you not... that sell signal is a particular phase of the moon.

🌘 Image
The correlation to the moon has been well studied, here's a 2005 study looking at price impact on stock markets.

If you run the correlation, the moon cycle strengthened its impact after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.

That event may have lead to the birth of meme stocks. Image
🔫 You may say it was War, and pricing in War, that lead to the last #BTC pull back.

🌘 Or maybe it was just that time of the moon cycle when in a tense situation humans felt shitty enough to launch a drone + missile attack. Image
Read 4 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
Jun 10, 2023
Money has always been a balance sheet of who owes whom.

This accounting needs to be agreed upon. And there’s only 3 known ways:

1) with social consensus

2) with matter

3) with energy
1) social consensus

Examples include fiat and proof of stake.

The ones in power (the wealthy) aim to control opinion to keep faith in the accounting system.
2) matter

This is how we used to do it.

We use something physically scarce so the accounting can’t be rigged. Gold backed money, silver coins, Rye stones, livestock, etc.

This doesn’t work with increasing technology. Things cease to be scarce with sufficient tech.
Read 5 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
Jan 17, 2023
CVDD Floor (circa 2019) successfully defended for 2 months straight, the first proper test apart from COVID where the crash got close.

Hope this is not famous last words :).

Spot momentum has been strong throughout this move, there was also solid accumulation for months at 16k.
Cost basis comparison suggests the bottom has formed. The peak discount that short term purchases got over long term purchases has crested.

It's only at the deep parts of a bear market do short term coins get cheaper than long term coins.
BTC Macro Index. Pretty safe time to buy.

Look at the vertical halvening bands; we are now around 1 month away from the period where the re-accumulation phase of the market starts engaging.
Read 6 tweets

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