Thread by @GlumBird

Both Ukraine and Russia speaking as if there's gonna be quite an escalation very soon. Russia warning of war; the US already sabre rattling. Ceasefire already broken (by Kiev) with most considerable clashes since July 2020. ft.com/content/6a3d49…

Ukraine claiming a military build up at border. See a few tweets out there tonight which suggest Russian convoys are about 25km from border.

Ukraine did this today too. tass.com/world/1272543

This could be sabre rattling; could be a big one

This is pretty fucking serious

Ceasefire officially over; no agreement to its continuation. All quiet for now.

"Support" is very vague but the US will at the very least be escalating sanctions and selling more guns to the fascists in Kiev. The escalation could, of course, spiral into broader conflict.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1377405426682097668?s=19

My position, as always, is down with "great power competition"; socialism or extinction!

Just in case any clarity is needed on that

Seen a few people online saying Russia suspended oil exports to Ukraine, which isn't true. A Swiss company which takes Russian oil to Ukraine has suspended doing that and Rosneft has found another company to transport it. mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id…

It's a weird disinfo line but an important one, as shutting of gas to Ukraine came before the certain escalations at the start of the 2014 war.

So before I log, what I will say is that I think this will represent a very important escalation if it happens, the ramifications of which won't be perceivable for a while. It will be horrible and it will look like the end of the world, especially in the war hungry western press.

I expect it will be contained regionally but there is the possibility that things could really get out of hand here. If this aligns with a serious escalation in the South China Sea (and there are significant rumblings that way too), a much wider conflict may form *fast*.

That can happen over just Ukraine too, depending on how far either the US or Russia push it. The red lines aren't really clear here (to the public) and the Russian deployment is *significant* (as is fashy Kiev's I imagine, but there's no footage of that - "how odd").

More likely imo is a high intensity "great power" conflict like we saw in 2014 and in Armenia last year, which stays within certain (albeit expanded relative to 2014) parameters - "hybrid" "greyzone" "not a war" war stuff, you know the drill if you've followed me for a bit.

That would still represent a significant escalation but it wouldn't lead to a wider European war necessarily. It would mean sanctions and some definite decisions in Europe, particularly on Nord Stream 2. I have opinions on how that will go but we'll deal with that another time.

Finally, this could all be posture leading to a slightly different ceasefire and, more significantly, a signal to Washington to back down on a few things - again,decision time in Europe.

We'll see, but this is gonna be quite the thing if it happens.

P.S. The fanfare around people posturing as anti-imperialists to debate the morals of amateur dramatics on this app needs to stop gaining traction among anyone serious. It's distracting even sincere comrades. Shit is really bad and we're still *nowhere near* ready.

I'll add on to this as this develops.

Wouldn't necessarily take this one as fact, but significant if true defence-blog.com/news/army/bela…

This is a very loud saber, must say

https://twitter.com/inteldispatches/status/1377609666977529863?s=19

So, the reason we’re not hearing much on Kiev is because Kiev has essentially declared war already, Zelensky setting forth plans to take Crimea and Sevastopol within three months on 24 March. president.gov.ua/documents/1172…

Further stuff in this blog article and corroborating links below

https://twitter.com/wrongwan/status/1377644882513301505?s=20

Imperialists of a feather...

NATO relatively muted for now in comparison to individual nations (Brits, US, Canada).

Ukraine asking for sped up membership to NATO, joint exercises with NATO and political pressure on Russia.

More significant, NATO just gave a nod to the strategy adopted by Kiev this month - that is, the strategy to take Crimea and Sevastopol (link above) president.gov.ua/en/news/zastup…

That nod is easy to miss, so here it is highlighted.

Further context

https://twitter.com/GlumBird/status/1377932606923231232?s=19

Can anyone confirm because like 😬😬😬😬😬

https://twitter.com/Ozkok_A/status/1377924811389857792?s=19

https://twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1377907089964687360?s=19

https://twitter.com/EDDC_Radar/status/1377879996757331969?s=19

The US is putting something in Ukraine then, which contextualizes this from Russia

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1377937404586250240?s=19

Point I missed: conscription in Donbass.

https://twitter.com/DonbassSegodnya/status/1377705327681015810

Reports of fighting in Donetsk. Would say its still unclear the extent to which this represents all out escalation, as tit-for-tat hasn't stopped in years.

https://twitter.com/PatilSushmit/status/1377983995896590339

How "lovely": Biden and Zelensky are having their first chat today. politico.com/news/2021/04/0…

Stock statement shit tbqh whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

Ukraine's readout of the call is significantly more zealous than the US'. Still doesn't quite say the US will militarily support

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1377724598226202627?s=19

Ukraine has sent a notification of escalations at the border to the UN. Seen reports of more conflict in Luhansk. Very likely there could be a plunge tomorrow.

British imperialism put out a statement that it will stand with Kiev and the US.

I reiterate: down with great power competition. Socialism or extinction.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1378035799187415045?s=19

Looks like military escalations are beginning proper.

https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1378093145301336064?s=19

Will update tomorrow! That's me for the night comrades

Seems like skirmishes were around Luhansk. Pretty intense but no expansion of conflict zone

Well then. Escalations likely to linger at this level until drills. Big move from NATO here if this is true, just on the "greyzone" (ha!) of a provocation

https://twitter.com/guyelster/status/1378341295970787329?s=19

The escalations have disappeared from the bourgeois press (perhaps signifying NATO ain't gonna do shit tbh) but the escalations haven't stopped.

https://twitter.com/inteldispatches/status/1378450791724384256?s=19