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Rob Lee Profile picture
@RALee85
Mar 31, 2021 • 185 tweets • 93 min read • Read on X
Being able to defend Crimea is an important mission for the Russian military given its location (Russia will test its ability to defend its other isolated region in Europe, Kaliningrad, during Zapad 2021), and a strong demonstration there makes sense with a new US admin.
Also worth noting that Ukraine's military continues to increase its capabilities, including procurement of TB2 UCAVs. So Russia may change its posture there in response to changes in the military balance of power vis-a-vis Ukraine that aren't always related to the US/NATO.
Nonetheless, the heightened response from the DoD indicates that there may be things we aren't seeing publicly, and there has been a recent increase in fighting in the Donbas. As Michael said, it is worth following without making strong conclusions yet.
politico.com/news/2021/03/3… Image
Also worth remembering that the Baltic Fleet sent three large landing ships and the Boikiy Project 20380 corvette, which arrived in the Mediterranean last week.
Though the Northern Fleet's Admiral Kasatonov Project 22350 frigate departed the Mediterranean today to conduct exercises in the Atlantic before returning to Severomorsk.
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
TikTok video allegedly taken in Rostov oblast showing 16 helicopters (only 12 are in the video) heading towards the border with Ukraine.
vm.tiktok.com/ZMef6kosf/
Video possibly from that same group of Mi-8 helicopters. @Archer83Able has a number of other videos in his thread.
Another video posted two days ago of another group of Russian helicopters, looks like at least 4 Ka-52 and possibly Mi-28, allegedly taken from the town of Salsk in Rostov oblast. The helicopters may be from the 55th Helicopter Regiment in Korenovsk.
vm.tiktok.com/ZMef6yfFR/
An explanation of why the DoD is expressing concern. Another interpretation of these moves is that Russia is demonstrating to Ukraine that it can quickly mass significant combat power in the Donbas or Crimea if Ukraine attempts to retake the regions.
cbsnews.com/news/russia-tr… Image
Ukraine's readout of the call, "The US Sec Def stressed that in the event of escalation of Russian aggression, the US will not leave Ukraine alone and will not allow the realization of aggressive aspirations of the Russian Federation towards Ukraine."
mil.gov.ua/en/news/2021/0… Image
I see a number of people sharing this, but the 56th Air Assault Brigade is not equipped with Tor SHORAD (nor are any of the VDV's brigades).
A good reason to be cautious about some of the videos being posted right now.
Looks like a mix of Mi-8, Ka-52, and Mi-28 helicopters. There were videos posted over the past few days of large numbers of helicopters also reportedly flying in Rostov. The 55th Helicopter Regiment in Korenovsk also has all of those helicopters.
The Russian MoD announced that the Southern Military District exercise will involve 15k personnel and more than 50 battalion tactical groups, including electronic warfare and air defense units involving countering UAVs.
tass.com/defense/1273413
Makes more sense.
The 1st train in this alleged April 2 video shows BM-27 Uragan MLRS and appears to be in Voronezh (h/t @666_mancer). Not clear if the end shows the same train, but it shows T-80U tanks, which are rare and in service with the 4th Tank Division in Moscow.
Again, the location of those T-80U tanks isn't confirmed, but it would be unusual to see the 4th Tank Division (based in Naro-Fominsk) in Voronezh. Also, the BM-27 Uragan MLRS are apparently coming from the Central Military District in Siberia.
Video reportedly from April 2 showing military equipment arriving in Feodosia, Crimea. BTR-82A, R-149MA1 C2 vehicles, KamAZ trucks, and BMP-3. No units in Crimea are equipped with BMP-3, but several Southern Military District units are equipped with them.
t.me/Radioskaner/18…
YuVO units with BMP-3 include the 19th Motorized Rifle Division (upgraded from brigade in 2020) in Vladikavkaz, the 136th MRB in Dagestan, and the 20th MRB in Volgograd. All would make sense for reinforcing Crimea as none are that close to Ukraine.
A good point from Michael. As a reminder, neither the Russian Su-24 shot down by Turkey nor the Russian Mi-24 helicopter shot down by Azerbaijan led to a military conflict (though Russia responded to the loss of the Su-24).
themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/03/rus… Image
Useful data point for the full picture of Russian military capabilities near Ukraine. The Northern Fleet's Admiral Kasatonov frigate (can carry 16 Kalibr cruise missiles) left the Mediterranean and is now west of Spain/France, instead of in the Black Sea.
I disagree with the argument that this is Russia probing or testing NATO or Ukraine. I think this is a demonstration, not a test, of what would happen if Ukraine tried to retake the Donbas/Crimea. It is designed to show Russian capabilities and resolve.
foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/02/rus… ImageImage
Russia is primarily focused on retaining its control over Crimea/Donbas and hasn't shown that it wants more of Ukraine, so what does probing/testing achieve? Whereas, a demonstration of escalation dominance makes sense to deter a possible Ukrainian military action to retake them.
This difference in interpretation is important because it affects how we respond. Some are arguing this is a test and that Russia will escalate if met with weakness. I disagree and think that taking certain escalatory steps (real or perceived) would be a mistake.
As always, let me emphasize that this is my best guess in interpreting the evidence that I've seen. I certainly could be wrong, and I would alter my views if the facts change. I still think an outright invasion by Russia beyond the Donbas is the least likely explanation.
Important correction from @tom_bullock_.
This video shows an S-400 22T6 transloader and several 5P85SM2-01 TELs as well as a Pantsir-S SHORAD combat vehicle (a Pantsir-S battery is generally collocated with S-400 regiments to provide short-range counter-PGM security). Not sure where this is.
ImageImageImage
The Baltic Fleet's Boikiy Project 20380 corvette and Minsk Project 775 Ropucha-class large landing ship have returned to Kaliningrad. They entered the Mediterranean on March 25 with the Kaliningrad and Korolev BDKs (which are presumably still there).
tvzvezda.ru/news/202144751…
The situation today really is not reminiscent of Russia's 2014 intervention in Ukraine (for one, Russia doesn't want to seize terrain now), and Putin did not intervene in 2014 because his approval rating was low.
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/… Image
The most recent Levada poll said that 48% of Russians think the country is headed in the right direction, basically the same since June 2018, and Putin's approval rating is 63%, which is roughly where it was in 2019 before COVID and Navalny's poisoning.
levada.ru/2021/02/04/pre… ImageImage
In short, Putin's domestic approval rating isn't particularly poor right now and doesn't explain why Russia is massing forces around Ukraine. Many observers often exaggerate the role Putin's approval rating plays in military force decision-making.
Looks like 2S9 Nona 120mm self-propelled mortars, BTR-MDM Rakushka APC, and BMD-4M IFV armored airborne vehicles. The latter two vehicles come together in battalion sets and are only used by the VDV.
ImageImageImageImage
T-90A tanks. The Southern Military District's 19th Motorized Rifle Brigade/Division's BMP-3 were previously seen moving on trains and it is also equipped with T-90A (though it isn't located in Makhachkala).
Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov today said, "The Russian Army moves in Russian territory in the directions it deems necessary, in the way it deems necessary, in order to ensure firm security of our country, this shouldn’t alarm anybody in the least."
tass.com/politics/12740… Image
When you move permanent readiness units to Ukraine's borders from the Central Military District and parts of the Western and Southern Military Districts that don't border Ukraine (Pskov and the North Caucasus) without giving any public warning, you're going to alarm people.
@tom_bullock_, you're right, those T-90A tanks were probably from the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade.
Screenshots from this video posted two days ago that shows a large number of BTR-82A vehicles. The background looks like the Opuk training area in Crimea, so some of these vehicles may have taken part in the exercise.
ImageImageImageImage
BTR-82A vehicles and T-90A tanks. ImageImage
TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS as well as BMP-2. Image
Tunguska self-propelled anti-aircraft gun and missile (SPAAGM) system on the back of a MAZ-537 tank transporter.
ImageImageImage
BMD-2 and BTR-D airborne armored vehicles from a Russian VDV air assault unit.
ImageImageImageImage
This is notable. These are 2S4 Tyulpan 240mm heavy mortars, which usually come with 2S7 Pion/Malka heavy artillery. The 291st Artillery Brigade in Ingushetia is the only Southern Mil District unit with them and it appears they're moving towards the border.
ImageImageImage
2S4 Tyulpan and 2S7 Pion are often used in training to smash fortified positions before an offensive. Another possibility is that Russia will target Ukrainian defenses on the line of contact with artillery/MLRS to demonstrate that they could assault beyond
Video of BM-27 Uragan 220mm MLRS in Voronezh. There was a video published on April 1 that appeared to show a train with Uragan MLRS arriving in Voronezh from Yurga. These may be from the Central Military District's 120th Guards Artillery Brigade.
Image
Looks like BMP-3, T-72B3, and T-72B1.
ImageImageImageImage
Sergei Shoigu announced an MoD-wide combat readiness control check as part of the winter training period. He said 4,048 exercises, including 812 force-on-force drills, will be held in April at 101 training areas and 520 facilities.
tvzvezda.ru/news/202146144…
tass.com/defense/1274675
A control check of Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces has begun.
Looks like an S-400 or S-300PM2 system with two Pantsir-S combat vehicles. Looks like at least one 5T58-2-series missile transporter on a BAZ-6402-015 chassis.
ImageImageImageImage
The Commander of the Western Military District, Colonel-General Alexander Zhuravlyov, has checked on units in the Bryansk, Belgorod, and Voronezh oblasts, which all border Ukraine.
ren.tv/news/v-rossii/…
The OSCE says that it was unable to operate a UAV today because of GPS jamming. They said that over the last 2 months, 62.5% of long-range UAV flights encountered GPS signal interference, and on 75% of the affected flights, it occurred more than once.
osce.org/special-monito… Image
The Russian MoD announced that >10 landing and artillery boats from the Caspian Flotilla are being transferred to the Black Sea for exercises. The Caspian Flotilla has Project 1204 and 1400M artillery boats and Project 1176, 11770, and 21820 landing craft.
function.mil.ru/news_page/coun… ImageImage
A US official tells CNN that the US does not see the amassing of Russian forces as posturing for an offensive action, but that they are conducting training and exercises and intelligence has not indicated military orders for further action.
cnn.com/2021/04/08/pol… Image
This doesn't look like a single unit (i.e. tank or motorized rifle brigade), but instead a mix of smaller units likely from separate formations. It will be interesting to see if Russia will form BTGs for this exercise/demonstration or employ RGT/BRD.
On second look, this looks like a motorized rifle battalion on BMPs and a tank company, in addition to the 2S3 Akatsiya howitzer battalion. Image
Not just a Buk, but a 9K317M Buk-M3 9A317M TELAR, the most modern version of the Buk. Not many units have them. The Western Military District's 53rd ZRB, Central Military District's 61st ZRB, and possibly the Southern Military District's 67th ZRB.
ImageImageImage
Notably, Izvestia reported in January that the Southern Military District was standing up a new air defense unit equipped with both Buk-M3 and Buk-M2 systems. It would be notable if a Buk-M3 from another district was sent near the border.
Msta-S self-propelled artillery.
9K317 Buk-M2 air defense system with 5 9A317 TELAR, 2 9S36 Low Altitude Acquisition/Engagement Radars, 2 9S470 Self-Propelled Command Posts, and 2 9S18M1 Acquisition Radar among other equipment.
ImageImageImageImage
Video reportedly of Russian military vehicles from its military base in Transnistria, which are apparently part of the MoD-wide control check. It is notable how old the equipment at some of Russia's overseas bases are. These look like BTR-70.
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
Another video of a Buk-M3 9A317M TELAR. The markings on the side look different from the previous video from Voronezh with a 9A317M TELAR.
ImageImageImage
Video showing a Pantsir-S battery as well as other military equipment.
Buk-M2 9S36 Low Altitude Acquisition/Engagement Radar.
ImageImageImage
Looks like 5T58-2 missile transporters with 48N6-series missiles (S-400 or S-300PM-series) and BMP-3.
ImageImageImage
BMP-3.
MT-LBM (6MB) with 30mm cannons, MT-LB, and T-72B1 likely from the Southern Military District's 42nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division.
ImageImageImage
Osa-AKM 9A33BM TELAR and 9T217B transporter/transloader and RB-531B Infauna K1Sh1 electronic warfare vehicle in Crimea.
ImageImageImageImage
It appears the VDV's 76th Air Assault Division is moving some (or all) of its tanks from its tank battalion to Crimea.
If Russia were to escalate with military force, shooting down a TB2 near Crimea or the Donbas is a possible COA. Russia has at least 4 S-400 battalions in Crimea, and their 48N6DM missiles have enough range to strike targets in Ukrainian airspace.
That train with MT-LBM (6MB) and T-72B tanks has already reached the Crimean Bridge.
In terms of military equipment we should keep our eye out for, 2S7 Pion/Malka 203mm heavy artillery is one of them. They are only located in district-level brigades, like the 291st, 165th, and 120th Artillery Brigades and 45th High-Power Artillery Brigade.
ImageImageImageImage
So it appears the Southern Military District's 291st Artillery Brigade has sent at least a battery of 2S4 Tyulpan (4 in the video) and 2S7M Malka heavy artillery pieces (6 in the video) towards the border with Ukraine from Ingushetia. (h/t @tom_bullock_) ImageImage
Video reportedly in Krasnodar of a train with at least 4 2S7 Pion/Malka 203mm artillery pieces. Looks like this isn't from the same train with the previous 6 Pion/Malkas, possibly indicating that the entire 291st Artillery Brigade's Malkas are on the move.
ImageImageImage
2 S-300PM2 Favorit battalions with two 5N63 engagement radars; two 76N6 low altitude acquisition radars; 54K6/55K6 command post; MAZ-543M, KrAZ-260, BAZ-6909, BAZ-6402-015 tractors/transporters; and a Pantsir-S. (h/t @ELINTNews)
ImageImageImageImage
Two Msta-S batteries.
Looks like the Caspian Flotilla sent five Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft among other ships to the Black Sea (photographed passing by Rostov-on-Don).
Looks like RB-531B Infauna and Borisoglebsk-2 electronic warfare systems.
ImageImageImageImage
Photo of three of the Caspian Flotilla's Project 1204 Shmel-class artillery/patrol boats and the GS-599 hydrographic ship in the Volga-Don Canal.
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… Image
Video of a Russian air assault unit passing through Kerch, including 2S9 Nona 120mm mortars, BMD-2, and BTR-D vehicles.
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
A Serna-class landing craft from the Caspian Flotilla passing through the Tsimlyansk Reservoir towards the Black Sea from April 9th.
Another unit from the VDV's 76th Air Assault Division headed south? Video shows BMD-2, BTR-D, and KamAZ trucks. It was allegedly taken yesterday in the Pskov Oblast.
Two batteries of Msta-S 152mm self-propelled howitzers and two 1L219M Zoopark-1 counter-battery radars.
ImageImageImage
The Caspian Flotilla sent all six of its Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft to the Black Sea.
Photos: Сергей Пивоваров
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
Report from @DiMagnaySky of the Russian field camp outside of Voronezh.
news.sky.com/story/russia-i…
Russian air assault BMD-4M and BTR-MDM Rakushka armored vehicles.
ImageImageImageImage
BTR-MDM Rakushka (probably a Cassiopeia-D C2 variant), RB-301B Borisoglebsk-2 and RB-531B Infauna electronic warfare systems, BTR-D, MT-LB, and BMD-2.
ImageImageImageImage
One reason I think an invasion by Russian forces beyond the current line of contract is unlikely: Russia's buildup has been slow and very public, which has given Ukraine ample time to call up reserves and reinforce the front (including with Javelins).
T-72B3 tanks, BTR-82A, R-166-0.5 communications vehicle, and UR-77 Mine Clearing Line Charge (MICLIC) among other equipment.
ImageImageImageImage
Possibly from a Borisoglebsk-2 electronic warfare system (though only one vehicle).
Image
Hard to perfectly decipher this statement from Ukraine, but it seems much of the Southern Military District (and ZVO to a lesser extent) is now massed near Ukraine as well as reinforcements from the Central Military District and VDV.
Looks like a Tor-M2 short-range air defense system's 9A331M combat vehicle from the Southern Military District's 150th Motorized Rifle Division's 933rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment. (h/t @askai707)
ImageImageImage
~Half a battalion set of BMD-4M and BTR-MDM Rakushka airborne armored vehicles.
Looks like MT-LB, BREM-1, 1L260 Zoopark-1M, T-72BA, T-72B obr.1989, T-72B1, BMP-1 (they don't look like BRM-1K), and a 9S932-1 Barnaul-T air defense recon/control vehicle as well as logistics and support vehicles.
ImageImageImageImage
Southern Military District aircraft, including Su-34 from the 559th Bomber Aviation Regiment based in Morozovsk, have redeployed for an exercise with the Black Sea Fleet's naval aviation as part of the control check, including Su-27SM, Su-30SM, and Su-24M.
tvzvezda.ru/news/202141323…
Video of the Black Sea Fleet's Vyshniy Volochyok and Grayvoron Buyan-M class small missile ships, Tsesar Kunikov Ropucha-class large landing ship, Samum Bora-class hovercraft, and other ships headed out to the Black Sea for a live-fire exercise.
tvzvezda.ru/news/202141318…
I missed this but as @artjomh points out, one of the Su-34 (red 10) has a SAP-14 Tarantul EW system. ImageImageImageImage
Photos of three of the Caspian Flotilla's Project 1204 Shmel-class artillery/patrol boats and four of its six Serna-class landing craft passing by Rostov-on-Don.
Photos: Сергей Пивоваров
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
Video from a fisherman of three of the Caspian Flotilla's Project 1204 Shmel-class artillery/patrol boats headed to the Sea of Azov.
Useful data point. We would expect to see the Southern Military District's Buk-M3, its most capable medium-range air defense system, near the border with Ukraine if an invasion was planned in the near future.
There was a fire at the Russian military camp set up in Boguchar, Voronezh near the border with Ukraine.
t.me/milinfolive/67…
Photos of Caspian Flotilla Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft and a Project 03160 Raptor patrol boat near Aleksandrovka, Rostov-on-Don. (h/t @AbraxasSpa)
Photos: Erik Romanenko
gettyimages.no/detail/news-ph… ImageImageImageImage
VDV BMD-2 and IVECO Rys vehicles.
ImageImageImageImage
VDV 2S9 Nona 120mm mortars, BMD-2, and BTR-D vehicles.
ImageImageImageImage
Ukrainian Minister of Defense Andriy Taran estimated that the number of Russian troops located near Ukraine's borders will reach 110k with 56 battalion tactical groups.
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=… Image
Taran said that Russia had 42k servicemen in Crimea that have been integrated into joint strike forces with a number of kinetic systems for offensive military operations, specifically an operation from Crimea to secure the water supply to the peninsula.
He also said that Russia has significantly strengthened its aviation component in Crimea, with various types of aircraft, and that the Black Sea Fleet has also been reinforced, potentially capable of carrying out a large amphibious operations.
Taran said the Russian buildup is being conducted symmetrically with the buildup of NATO forces for the Defender-Europe 2021 exercise. He said that he fears that a provocation will occur, which could be used by Russia as pretext to increase its forces in the Donbas.
I still think this is true, and my view of the Russian buildup hasn't changed. But obviously Russia has some serious military capabilities near Ukraine's borders, which remains very concerning.
Turkish diplomatic sources tell Reuters that the United States has cancelled the deployment of two warships to the Black Sea.
reuters.com/article/ukrain…
CNN confirms from US sources that the US has decided to not send destroyers to the Black Sea for the time being because of concerns that it would be viewed as escalatory. (h/t @Archer83Able, @dustave)
cnn.com/2021/04/14/pol… Image
According to CNN, the current US assessment is that the Russian military has moved more than 40 BTGs into the border area but the lack of observed spare parts, fuel, and other logistics indicates that this force is not prepared for offensive operations over the next few days. ImageImage
Ruslan Pukhov's take: “With the current state of Russia-Ukrainian relations, we have no other tools to influence Kyiv except the threat of force and the use of force. The other diplomatic tools are really limited,”
ft.com/content/214a08… ImageImage
Pipeline Troops' equipment.
Column of BM-27 Uragan MLRS ImageImageImageImage
Interesting convoy with BPM-97 (KamAZ-43269) Vystrel vehicles with 30mm cannons, as well as KamAZ trucks with C-IED jammers. ~160 Vystrels were built, most went into service with the Border Guards, others were used by spetsnaz and Wagner in Syria/Donbas.
ImageImageImageImage
A video posted on April 2nd showed 5 KamAZ-43269 Vystrel vehicles with MB2-03 turrets with 30mm cannons (which are rare) on a train. Presumably, these are the same vehicles.
instagram.com/p/CNLKzU_H-HW/
Looks like that same train with BMD-2 and Rys vehicles posted two days ago is now in Rostov-on-Don. Also, some BTR-82A and I think a R-149MA1 command and control vehicle.
ImageImageImageImage
BMP-2 and two BM-21 Grad MLRS batteries.
Disregard my previous tweet. The equipment is headed in the opposite direction from Ukraine.
More than 10 Su-34 fighter-bombers from the 47th Composite Aviation Regiment based at the Buturlinovka airfield bombed targets (simulated command posts) at the Alferovsky training ground in Voronezh.
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Looks like the same group of vehicles with BPM-97 (KamAZ-43269) Vystrel vehicles with 30mm cannons, R149AKSh-1 command and control vehicles, and R-166 Artek communications vehicles posted on March 22, allegedly in Volodga. (h/t @MartinSebesta)
ImageImageImageImage
But a new video allegedly taken yesterday in the Belgorod Oblast, near the Ukrainian border, appears to show part of that same convoy with a BPM-97 (KamAZ-43269) Vystrel and R-166 Artek communications vehicle.
ImageImage
In a step sure to raise tensions, the FSB has detained a Ukrainian diplomat in St. Petersburg for allegedly receiving classified information from a Russian citizen.
kommersant.ru/doc/4780591?ut…
The 15 ship naval grouping from the Caspian Flotilla that includes 15 ships of the Caspian Flotilla, including three artillery boats, eight landing craft, and support vessels, has entered the Black Sea after passing the Crimean Bridge.
Der Spiegel published satellite photos showing the expansion of a military camp on the coast in eastern Crimea 30km from the town of Marfivka. The 1st photo is from March 15th, the 2nd is from April 2nd, and other two from April 13th.
spiegel.de/politik/auslan… ImageImageImageImage
A pair of S-400 5P85SM2-01 TELs reportedly in Krasnodar.
The Southern Military District that more than 50 aircraft, including Su-27SM and Su-30SM fighters, Su-24M and Su-34 bombers, and Su-25SM3 attack aircraft, are taking part in a live-fire exercise on naval targets in the Black Sea.
interfax.ru/russia/761759
The MoD said that the Su-25SM3 attack aircraft from the 368th Attack Aviation Regiment in Budyonnovsk has been deployed to Crimea and Su-25SM3 from the 960th Attack Aviation Regiment based in Crimea have been moved to the Ashuluk training area in Astrakhan.
As expected, all 4 Ropucha-class large landing ships that were in the Mediterranean, 2 from the Baltic Fleet and Northern Fleet, are now in the Black Sea as are 8 Caspian Flotilla landing craft. A lot of amphibious capability currently in the Black Sea.
Video of Caspian Flotilla Serna-class landing craft passing under the Crimean Bridge and heading into the Black Sea from earlier today.
t.me/bmpd_cast/7353
Video posted today reportedly of military exercises in Crimea (possibly the new camp in SE Crimea?). T-72B3 with mine rollers, UR-77, IMR-2M, MT-LB, BTR-80, and air defense equipment. Similar equipment has been spotted on trains.
Regarding the video of two S-400 5P85SM2-01 TELs reportedly in Krasnodar.
Russia transferred an A-50 AEW&C aircraft to Kaliningrad and another to Rostov-on-Don, close to the border with Ukraine.
When was the last time Russia had this many ships in the Black Sea? All of Russia's fleets and flotillas have ships in the area except for the Pacific Fleet.
Looks like that same convoy with BPM-97 Vystrel vehicles with 30mm cannons, R149AKSh-1 command and control vehicles, and R-166 Artek communications vehicles, reportedly in Kursk.
vm.tiktok.com/ZMeHEUC93/
An earlier video of these vehicles was allegedly spotted in Bryansk.
Video of a train with tanks and engineering vehicles, including two IMR-2M Engineer heavy armored obstacle clearing vehicles, reportedly in Rostov. Another video was published yesterday in Volgograd likely of the same train.
ImageImageImageImage
This train reportedly came from Pskov, home to the VDV's 76th Air Assault Division. There were some BMD airborne vehicles at the end of the first video.
BTR-D and BTR-MDM airborne armored vehicles and two batteries of D-30 122mm howitzers.
ImageImageImageImage
The EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell said, "It is more than 150,000 Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian borders and in Crimea."
reuters.com/world/europe/r… Image
Correction: Borrell said "more than 100,000 Russian troops" not 150,000. The last estimate I saw from the Ukrainian MoD said that they expected the figure to reach 110k. (h/t @marcburleigh)
eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/h… Image
Comparison of satellite photos from the same camp from April 10 and earlier (posted on April 8th but probably from earlier). There is more equipment in the new photo, and we can see that there is a full BM-27 Uragan MLRS battalion with 8 launchers.
ImageImage
Comparison of the expansion of the second camp at the Pogonovo training area. The yellow rectangles show roughly where the new equipment has arrived.
Image
Russia has announced a NOTAM over Crimea and part of the Black Sea. We'll likely see some live-fire missile launches during the exercises.
We're about to see a large amphibious exercise in Crimea with the Black Sea Fleet's 810th Naval Infantry Brigade and the Tsezar Kunikov, Azov, Alexander Otrakovsky, and Saratov landing ships (probably others and Serna landing craft)
tass.com/defense/1279759
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
The Russian MoD said that >20 BSF ships, including the Admiral Makarov and Essen frigates, Graivoron and Vyshny Volochyok corvettes, ASW ships, and BDKs took part in an exercise in the Black Sea with 3 squadrons of attack aircraft including Su-25SM3.
tass.com/defense/1280235
The kicker is notable, which says that more than 50 aircraft from the Southern Military District have been redeployed to Crimea as part of the control check.
tass.com/defense/1280235 Image
Shoigu said that the US/NATO are continuing provocative actions in the Black Sea and increasing their mil presence on Russia's southern and western borders, and that this is forcing Russia to increase the combat capabilities of the Southern Mil District for strategic deterrence.
He also said that the military-political leadership of Ukraine seeks to destabilize the Donbas and that it continues its destructive course.
function.mil.ru/news_page/coun… ImageImageImage

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More from @RALee85

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Sep 21
Russian channels say that Ukrainian UAVs targeted the ammunition depot in Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar Krai.




t.me/bazabazon/31447
t.me/astrapress/647…
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Video of an explosion. 2/
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Sep 10
Video of an armored column with at least 8 tanks and armored vehicles from the Russian VDV's 51st Airborne Regiment assaulting Snagost in Kursk oblast. It appears Russia was able to get the armored force across the Seym River, despite Ukrainian strikes on the bridges. @Deepstate_UA says the situation has worsened on Ukraine's left flank in Kursk oblast.


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More likely that the advance was from Korenevo.
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Rob Lee Profile picture
Sep 6
"Iran has sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, a move that will give Moscow another potent military tool to use in the war against Ukraine and follows stern Western warnings not to provide those arms to Moscow, according to U.S. and European officials." @wstrobel @mgordonwsj @laurnorman
wsj.com/world/u-s-tell…Image
"A U.S. official confirmed the missiles 'have finally been delivered'...

The shipment involves a couple of hundred short-range ballistic missiles, according to Western officials. Iran has a variety of such weapons, with a range stretching up to around 500 miles.

'This is not the end,' a senior European official said, noting that Iran is expected to keep weapons flowing into Russia"
.@AlbertoNardelli and @nat_droz also report that Iran has sent ballistic missiles to Russia.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Rob Lee Profile picture
Sep 3
Another Ukrainian FPV employing some form of incendiary munition on a tree line by Ukraine’s 42nd Mechanized Brigade.
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Videos from Ukraine's 116th and 60th Mechanized Brigades of FPVs with incendiary munitions. 2/


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The video from Ukraine's 116th Mechanized Brigade.
Read 21 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Sep 2
I think Biddle is right that authorizing the use of longer-range strikes into Russia wouldn't be decisive on its own, but I also think this is an unfair burden to apply to the delivery of weapons or restrictions. People often say sanctions are ineffective if they fail to deter or stop a war, but they can still make it more difficult for the target to wage that war.
Most of Russia's Su-34 glide bomb carriers are no longer operated from airbases within ATACMS or Storm Shadow range; however, the S-300/S-400 that struck Kharkiv yesterday would be within range of ATACMS, and air defenses have a priority ATACMS target in occupied areas. One of the main benefits of allowing HIMARS' GMLRS strikes into Russian territory after the Kharkiv offensive began was that Kharkiv gained a reprieve from S-300/S-400 strikes. It seems that is no longer the case.
Of course, allowing these strikes would help Ukraine hold the buffer zone in Kursk, which could become more difficult this winter. It's also worth noting that Ukraine's campaign of targeting Russian infrastructure is being accomplished with Ukrainian-built UAVs and missiles.
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Aug 22
Videos of Ukrainian air strikes in Kursk oblast on bridges and a platoon position with GBU-39 small diameter bombs.
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Video of a Ukrainian AASM Hammer air strike. 3/
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Read 23 tweets

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