Aside from noting again the smart Centrists do not possess any particular great wisdom or insight, I’d also say - as I have done for years - that it’ll be really difficult to dislodge an intentionally vicious Tory Party that has the press fully onside. 
My guess in 2017 was the Tories would keep +/-40% for as long as they could ensure they’re the most vicious and needlessly cruel option on the ballot, and the press is willing to ensure the public are kept riled up with excuses to be angry about bullshit, and nothing has changed.
This analysis didn’t go over particularly well in 2017/19, when a lot of people seemed desperately keen to believe there’s a large cohort of sensible Tories out there choking to stop voting for stupidity and cruelty. And I’d say the evidence for that is looking pretty thin now.
I’d again question the wisdom of all those smart people who thought the best solution to this solid voting bloc of older, comfortable people gasping for Tories to crackdown on the young and different was a scorched earth, fuck-consequences assault on the left, for provoking them.
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