1/8
This article has been pretty widely circulated, which is why I want to point out why I disagree with it. It complains that by creating demand for commodities, China’s investment binge is making Joe Biden's infrastructure investment program more...
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
This article has been pretty widely circulated, which is why I want to point out why I disagree with it. It complains that by creating demand for commodities, China’s investment binge is making Joe Biden's infrastructure investment program more...
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/8
expensive, and that, to make matters worse, Beijing has been very cleverly racing ahead of the US by stocking up on commodities last year when it didn't yet need them.
But aside from the fact that China’s investment binge is no more making Joe Biden's stimulus more ...
expensive, and that, to make matters worse, Beijing has been very cleverly racing ahead of the US by stocking up on commodities last year when it didn't yet need them.
But aside from the fact that China’s investment binge is no more making Joe Biden's stimulus more ...
3/8
expensive than Joe Biden's stimulus is making China's investment binge more expensive, it isn't really true. In fact Chinese investment surged last year, accounting for nearly 200% of the country's GDP growth. This is the main reason China bought large amounts of...
expensive than Joe Biden's stimulus is making China's investment binge more expensive, it isn't really true. In fact Chinese investment surged last year, accounting for nearly 200% of the country's GDP growth. This is the main reason China bought large amounts of...
4/8
commodities, and by the way they also a lot of trucks and construction equipment. All of this has been widely reported.
What's more, regular China watchers know that commodity buyers have no better a track record on China when it comes to stockpiling commodities than in...
commodities, and by the way they also a lot of trucks and construction equipment. All of this has been widely reported.
What's more, regular China watchers know that commodity buyers have no better a track record on China when it comes to stockpiling commodities than in...
5/8
other countries, tending to panic about rising prices nearer the top of the market than the bottom. This doesn't tell us whether or not this time they are wrong, but even if it is true that they are again stockpiling commodities, on past form it tells us little about ...
other countries, tending to panic about rising prices nearer the top of the market than the bottom. This doesn't tell us whether or not this time they are wrong, but even if it is true that they are again stockpiling commodities, on past form it tells us little about ...
6/8
future commodity prices except that Chinese demand will be a little lower than otherwise.
Over the longer term I am also skeptical about the new "commodity supercycle" thesis. China accounts for over 50% of global commodity demand only because for three decades Chinese...
future commodity prices except that Chinese demand will be a little lower than otherwise.
Over the longer term I am also skeptical about the new "commodity supercycle" thesis. China accounts for over 50% of global commodity demand only because for three decades Chinese...
7/8
growth has been powered by investment, but Beijing has with increasing urgency over the past decade tried to shift growth from investment to consumption in order to get its explosive debt under control, with no success at all, as of yet. It hasn't been able to do so...
growth has been powered by investment, but Beijing has with increasing urgency over the past decade tried to shift growth from investment to consumption in order to get its explosive debt under control, with no success at all, as of yet. It hasn't been able to do so...
8/8
because it hasn't been able to boost consumption sufficiently. Until it does, it cannot afford to allow investment to slow. To assume China can keep investment growth as high for another 5-10 years as it has in the past is also to assume no limit to China's debt capacity.
because it hasn't been able to boost consumption sufficiently. Until it does, it cannot afford to allow investment to slow. To assume China can keep investment growth as high for another 5-10 years as it has in the past is also to assume no limit to China's debt capacity.
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