More thoughts on Russian military activity around Ukraine. The movements suggest a strong coercive display of force, meant to intimidate, but not a scheduled exercise, or necessarily preparation for an attack. Brief thread. 1/
The deployments appear somewhat unusual, and unscheduled, with forces active or being moved around Ukraine, especially notable were deployments to Crimea. Southern MD announcements of exercises yesterday were post hoc, unconvincing, and not encompassing of the activity. 2/
That said, Russian movements were visible, and intended to be observed. They do not appear to be of the size indicative of an invasion, either from Crimea, or elsewhere. The challenge is that sizable formations permanently based on UKR border offer little notice/warning.
I do not subscribe to the thesis that Russia intends invade from Crimea because of the water crisis. This notion is floated annually, and thus far incorrectly. The current activity appears directly connected to the ceasefire breakdown, and coercive in nature.
I have written on the water issue in the past, and during previous crises, for example in 2018 (see link below). The context for the current crisis is political, and the coming days likely to reveal Russian intentions, along with scale of deployment. russianmilitaryanalysis.wordpress.com/2018/12/26/is-…
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