From Feb 1, the date COVID vaccine effect probably started: Israel provides a preview into what can happen in the US as we race to get 80% of eligible public vaccinated.

Deaths and hospitalizations eventually will be driven by cases in unvaccinated adults.
Deaths in the US have resumed their downward trend after a brief plateau. I hope this continues. Metrics of vaccine success to track will be hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths.
I'm saying 80% of the eligible public as target for herd immunity as opposed to 80% of the whole country because while we are not vaccinating kids, we also do have at least 10% of the population who have had confirmed COVID and at least another 10% who have had undiagnosed COVID.
80% of eligible population for COVID vaccination is achievable and will open up the country very soon to return us to near normalcy. Let's do this.

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More from @VincentRK

1 Apr
How long will protection from COVID vaccines last?

If you are going by lab studies & antibody levels: Few months

If you are going based what we know about the immune system, and in terms of ability to prevent serious disease & deaths: Years or decades.

That's my opinion FWIW.
The big unknown is the ability of the virus to mutate to a variant that is both more infectious and more lethal while being different enough to evade vaccine generated immune response.

The reason I'm not alarmed by this prospect is the natural redundancy of the immune response.
Of course no one can know for sure, only time will tell. Whatever you hear is one persons opinion versus the other. No more, no less.

Again I'm using metrics of ability to prevent serious disease and deaths. Not any infection.
Read 5 tweets
31 Mar
Europe is struggling with the vaccine roll out. Any decision on vaccines needs to take into account that every single day 2500 lives are being lost due to COVID. That's the risk/benefit trade off to consider.

The UK in comparison is doing extremely well with vaccinations. ImageImage
Deaths are driven by people getting COVID. People get COVID from other people.

The elderly get COVID not just from other elderly people but also from young people. High COVID rates in young people places the lives of elderly at greater risk.
Vaccination rates. Image
Read 4 tweets
30 Mar
Why do you often get confusing and contradictory messages from experts?

Why does medical expert opinion sometimes seem incorrect, outdated, or even contrary to the evidence?

1/ Medicine is really complicated. No one is truly an expert except in a tiny segment of it, at best.
2/ When a car doesn't work a good mechanic knows what each part does. To know what's wrong. Doesn't need a randomized trial to know how to fix it.

Our body is not like a car. We don't know a fraction of how it works and what each part does. Human biology is still in its infancy
3/ Medicine moves at speed of light. Keeping up to date is no small task. Even if you read all the latest information as they come in, you may have time to scan the headlines or abstract—
Not critically review it.
Read 12 tweets
29 Mar
There may be a 4th wave in COVID cases, but I don't think there will be another significant wave in deaths. Ripple maybe. Not a wave.

We are doing very well in vaccinations. The vaccines work. There is reason to be optimistic.
I'd rather that deaths not be at the level of 1000 per day. It's really high and I would like to seen it come down drastically.

I'm confident if we keep vaccinating the way we have been, this will happen. Sooner rather than later.
All of the cases I have heard of in fully vaccinated people have been mild or asymptomatic.
Read 7 tweets
29 Mar
When we say "Vaccine Passport" some people may have negative reactions. I'd rather call it proof of vaccination.

The reality is that air travel and big gatherings in most places are likely to require proof of vaccination or a negative test. Of the two, I'd go with the vaccine.
Remember, your own friends and family may have small gatherings, and without being explicit they may only invite people who they know are vaccinated. Just for your own safety and theirs.

I strongly believe vaccines are they way to get us to normal, and soon.
As someone lucky to have been vaccinated, I can tell you the peace of mind is incredible.
Read 4 tweets
29 Mar
Just out: Double blind placebo controlled randomized trial of oral triplet Ixazomib-Rd vs Rd as frontline therapy of multiple myeloma. Helps elderly patients unable to travel.

Personally gratifying as 11th randomized trial as a lead investigator. ashpublications.org/blood/article-…
Ixazomib is an oral proteasome inhibitor that is given once a week.

One pill once a week is a convenient way of delivering proteasome inhibitor therapy that otherwise takes a trip to the clinic.
CR and VGOR rates were higher with ixazomib-Rd vs placebo-Rd.

Median PFS: 35.3 months with ixazomib Rd vs 21.8 months with placebo-Rd, P = 0.073.
Read 6 tweets

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