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Brent aka Blacklion Profile picture
@BlacklionCTA
Apr 3, 2021 • 11 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Time for the Fed Balance Sheet...Weekend Update Image
Sheet Assets experience a glitch in the matrix and decline $42.4B Image
Not to fear Treasuries added $21B ATH Image
Central Bank Liquidity Swaps increase the first time in months. +$1.7B Image
Mortgage Backed Securities continue their increasing maturity volatility (on sheet) as the portfolio expands. Down $62.2B this week. Image
REPO's no change Image
Sheet Liabilities contract $30.7B Image
Liabilities: Other Deposits down $136.4B Image
Treasury General Account surprisingly up $90B Image
Reverse Repos continue to be intriguing following last month's FOMC up $117.7B this week. Image
Fed Balance Sheet Summary Easter Weekend 2021
Sheet Assets⬇️
Treasuries⬆️🎉
Liquidity Swaps⬆️🧐
MBS⬇️
REPO🥱
Sheet Liabilities⬇️
Other Deposits⬇️
TGA⬆️
Reverse REPO⬆️🚀

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More from @BlacklionCTA

Brent aka Blacklion Profile picture
Sep 20, 2025
Bike is totaled, thankfully I am not. Dire Straits on @pandoramusic let's go through macro. The theme this week is the first look at Fed capture, resumption of the cutting cycle, and surrender of price stability.
FOMC and in line initial claims halted the curve flattening from previous employment reports. Image
Breakevens were little changed after FOMC. Image
Read 38 tweets
Brent aka Blacklion Profile picture
Dec 7, 2023
Soft Landing🧵: Ton of comments about landings. As a veteran of many 'hard' landings I try to think about this in objective terms I could potentially trade.
2/What is a quantifiable measure of a soft landing? Mine is that the PCE Core YoY trends to 2% and the FOMC can reduce short rates toward the estimate of the natural rate of interest without NBER declaring a recession. Graphically. Image
3/Regarding the current estimate of the natural rate of interest, the mythical R* I think a good estimate is Richmond Fed noted as the yellow dashed line with EFFR and 2Yr Yields. Image
Read 8 tweets
Brent aka Blacklion Profile picture
Mar 14, 2023
Pay attention to Japan. Something weird going on with YCC.
Huge improvement in Bond liquidity index. Yen moving into JGB.
JGB Volatility rising while liquidity improving.
Read 5 tweets
Brent aka Blacklion Profile picture
Mar 14, 2023
The chain of arrogant incompetence.
•SVB's Becker is on the Board of the SF Fed
•Mary Daly is President of SF Fed
•Ms. Daly attends FOMC meetings in 2022, non-voter
•SVB stops hedging against higher rates in 2022
•SVB Texas Hedges lower rates
HTF does this happen?
The Fed claims they are going to investigate how SVB failed and the lapse in oversight. They will likely throw FDIC under the bus when they should be perp walking the DEI staffed SF Fed into the bay. And of course we get the bill for this in lower rates from our banks.
#GoWokeGoBroke may or may not have happened at SVB, but it damn sure happened @sffed
Read 4 tweets
Brent aka Blacklion Profile picture
Jan 8, 2023
Headline Macro Notes:
Interest rate expectations pricing in slightly more than 25bps in February and slightly less in March. Translation: 25bps each at the next 2 meetings, pause.
After a brief respite this week all major UST coupon yields are <Fed Funds effective.
Yield curve inversion flattening and 3M/10Y deeper than 100bps.
Read 5 tweets
Brent aka Blacklion Profile picture
Dec 28, 2022
Zoltan is on the street. It is wwaayyy long with some thought provoking points in the initial 6 pages. Will make Luke Gromen scream plagiarism.
Personal thought/bias: : Medvedev's propaganda thread and Zoltan's latest have too much overlap for coincidence. Either Medvedev's staff got Zoltan early or this is coordinated.
Is what Xi proposed in Saudi Arabia that Zoltan breaks down in the 1st portion possible? Yes. That someone who served in the USN in that region and studies/trades markets for living types that is cause enough for concern.
Read 4 tweets

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