Plant Profile picture
Apr 3, 2021 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
$SKLZ Updated Investor Presentation Posted
s26.q4cdn.com/331039098/file…

In this thread, I will quickly discuss updates between the SPAC presentation and this one.

For the following images: New presentation on the left, old presentation from the SPAC on the right.

1/
2/
Minutes per day from 62 to 60 mins - estimated by 4 minutes per tournament. I.e. Average games per day went from 15.5 to 15.

Makes sense as they have doubled the # of paying users in 2020 but not going to try and dissect 0.5 games per day as these are all rounded anyway.
3/
Updated with revenue beat $225M -> $230M as well as updated growth rate.

LTV/CAC reduced from 4.7x to 3.8x as they have unloaded on S&M. This is the most logical short-term bearish argument in my opinion. Watching closely.
4/
Rephrased:
5/
Interesting market-size updates from `14-`19 CAGR to `15-`20 CAGR.

Movies and music were hit hard (obviously) in 2020. OTT and gaming outperformed. Books and Television overall were flat.

Mobile gaming now $86B vs $68B in 2019.
6/
Take-rate has improved from 14% to 14.6%. On the path to 15% as hoped.

These figures for operating expenses include user incentives. In my opinion, the unit economics are compelling if they can get S&M down long-term. Partnered deals are important as marketing is lower.
7/
New slide highlighting partnerships.

NFL
Bowlero - They own the Professional Bowlers Association (PBA)
Ganassi Racing - They own two NASCAR teams as well as others in Indycar
8/

Crazy slide. Average cost per install increased from $4.85 in 2019 to $6.61 in 2020.
9/
ARPU updated from $6.30 in 2019 to $7.49 in 2020 as expected.
10/
Blackout Bingo has become the #1 game as of Q42020.

Number of games over $1M in annual revenue up to 36 from 23 in 2019.
11/
New slide shows user cohort spending by year.

Spending continues to grow past the 3Y which means real LTV is higher than stated.

Also noticed newer cohorts are spending more, faster.
12/
Updated slide to represent actuals instead of projections now that they are post-merger and can't project past 1 year.
13/
Expected TAM has increased slightly among New Genres and iOS markets. TAM estimates are fairly unnecessary to me.
14/
Added slides representing latest financials.

Removed slides on the SPAC transaction details now they are post-merger.

/END

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Plant

Plant Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @plantmath1

May 2, 2022
$ZI Q1 2022

Revenue $241.7M +58% YoY
Lev Free Cash Flow $125.9M, 52% LFCF Margin.
Oper Cash Flow $105M, 44% OCF Margin.
Raised FY Guidance across the board. Guided to 42% Oper Income margins.

Not all companies should trade at 10x revenues.. Image
$ZI Customers contributing over $100k in revenue were 1,623 up from 950 YoY, +71% YoY.
$ZI on the call mgmt mentions $RDFN as a high value customer for Talent OS.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 29, 2022
$SQ lost 3.5 years and is now sitting on its Oct 2018 high.
$RDFN has lost 2 years, is a buck off the COVID March lows.
$U has lost 1.5 years, is spot on it's IPO trading price.
Read 10 tweets
May 7, 2021
$ROKU ER. Wow.

-Total Rev $574M +79% from $321M
beat est. $491M by 17%
-Platform Revenue +101%
-Total Gross profit +139%
-Platform Gross profit of 67% up from 56%
-EBITDA positive $126M up from a loss -$55M
-Operating expenses were only up 28% on 79% revenue growth.
$ROKU Q2 Guidance:
-Total revenue $615M beats est $549.7M by 12%
represents 73% YoY growth
-Gross profit $300M
represents 104% YoY growth
-Adj EBITDA $65M
$ROKU posted EBITDA for Q1 that is 75% of analyst's full year EBITDA estimate..
Read 4 tweets
May 6, 2021
Depending on what second you look at the share price, $ETSY is priced at 36x 2022 analyst est EPS. A lot of names are not crazy expensive anymore.
$PINS is 40x an estimate of $1.50 2022 EPS
$FSLY is <8x 2y forward EV/S if they grow 30% for 2 years.
Read 4 tweets
May 6, 2021
$RDFN Earnings look stellar.

Total Revenue up 40% but recall iBuying impacts revenue due to whole home price accounted as revenue, so look closer:

Brokerage revenue up 55%
Other Revenue (mortgage and title) up 120% (!)
RedfinNow/iBuying up 17%
Monthly average visitors +30% to 46 million.

U.S. Market share 1.14% up from 1.04% in Q4 and 0.93% in 1Q2020

Average revenue per first-party transaction at record high $10,927

Brokerage transactions up 38% - this is an important KPI as rev growth is partly due to rev per tx
Other services (mortgage and title) as a percentage of non-iBuying activities 5.64% up from 3.99% in 1Q2020.

I use this statistic to track the "take-rate" of mortgage and title.
Read 7 tweets
May 5, 2021
$FSLY Call

CEO: Despite reopening comps we expect continued growth in Q2.

Typically Q2 is flat from Q1 followed by growth into the second half of the year.

It is now possible to buy Fastly and SS in one contract reducing sales cycles.

(reuploaded, bad typo)
Highlights privacy as a focus of efforts, separate from security. Edge compute + security + privacy is the focus.

Several wins across different verticals fin services, a cryptocurrency platform, insurance technology company, etc. [didn't catch them all]
As we mentioned, CFO is stepping down after 5 years. He will remain as an advisor to Fastly following the transition.
Read 25 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(