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Looking for the best companies for the next 5 years. Authenticity wins. Sharing mistakes is more important than sharing wins.
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7 May
$ROKU ER. Wow.

-Total Rev $574M +79% from $321M
beat est. $491M by 17%
-Platform Revenue +101%
-Total Gross profit +139%
-Platform Gross profit of 67% up from 56%
-EBITDA positive $126M up from a loss -$55M
-Operating expenses were only up 28% on 79% revenue growth.
$ROKU Q2 Guidance:
-Total revenue $615M beats est $549.7M by 12%
represents 73% YoY growth
-Gross profit $300M
represents 104% YoY growth
-Adj EBITDA $65M
$ROKU posted EBITDA for Q1 that is 75% of analyst's full year EBITDA estimate..
Read 4 tweets
6 May
Depending on what second you look at the share price, $ETSY is priced at 36x 2022 analyst est EPS. A lot of names are not crazy expensive anymore.
$PINS is 40x an estimate of $1.50 2022 EPS
$FSLY is <8x 2y forward EV/S if they grow 30% for 2 years.
Read 4 tweets
6 May
$RDFN Earnings look stellar.

Total Revenue up 40% but recall iBuying impacts revenue due to whole home price accounted as revenue, so look closer:

Brokerage revenue up 55%
Other Revenue (mortgage and title) up 120% (!)
RedfinNow/iBuying up 17%
Monthly average visitors +30% to 46 million.

U.S. Market share 1.14% up from 1.04% in Q4 and 0.93% in 1Q2020

Average revenue per first-party transaction at record high $10,927

Brokerage transactions up 38% - this is an important KPI as rev growth is partly due to rev per tx
Other services (mortgage and title) as a percentage of non-iBuying activities 5.64% up from 3.99% in 1Q2020.

I use this statistic to track the "take-rate" of mortgage and title.
Read 7 tweets
5 May
$FSLY Call

CEO: Despite reopening comps we expect continued growth in Q2.

Typically Q2 is flat from Q1 followed by growth into the second half of the year.

It is now possible to buy Fastly and SS in one contract reducing sales cycles.

(reuploaded, bad typo)
Highlights privacy as a focus of efforts, separate from security. Edge compute + security + privacy is the focus.

Several wins across different verticals fin services, a cryptocurrency platform, insurance technology company, etc. [didn't catch them all]
As we mentioned, CFO is stepping down after 5 years. He will remain as an advisor to Fastly following the transition.
Read 25 tweets
5 May
$FSLY
Revenue up 35% YoY to $85M
NonGaap GM of 60.1%, loss $13M
DBNER 139%
Enterprise customers 336, up from 324 in Q4 2020
Average enterprise customer spend $800,000, up from $782,000 in Q4 2020
$FSLY Signal Sciences
Total customer count of 293, up from 280 at the end of Q4 202
Enterprise customer count of 86, up from 78 at the end of Q4 2020
Approximately 25% overlap with existing Fastly enterprise customers
$FSLY Letter highlights a Compute@Edge customer that worked with Google and Roku to dispute connected TV botnets.
Read 12 tweets
4 May
$SKLZ Call is video!
$SKLZ Call -
CEO: We are excited to expand our games to synchronous categories including FPS and RTS games. We are currently working with developer partners to test the technology. We anticipate growing to other categories such as battle royale.
We are focusing on partnering with brands. We imagine a world where all brands have their own games where players can [win prizes, etc].
Read 24 tweets
4 May
$SKLZ

92% Revenue Growth to $84M beats est $78M
Raised FY21 Guidance to $375M representing 63% growth

d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001801661…
$SKLZ
Paying MAU up 81% YoY
MAU to Paid MAU conversion rate up to 17% from 16% in Q4
ARPU $10.35
Added our first ever Chief Marketing Officer, Tyler Williamson, who comes to Skillz from Beats Electronics LLC.
Read 10 tweets
4 May
Bought $Z and $PINS so far.
$PINS 60-62 is in the perfect zone for me if we aren't entering a bear market. Its just off the 200day pysch level where everyone wants to buy. So if it doesn't get much worse, those people will all miss their buy orders and panic buy if it reverses.
Started a small $FB position in the LT portfolio. Will DCA this as its looking at a gap fill.
Read 4 tweets
28 Apr
$TDOC Call - Primary360 going well and signed additional deals for later this year.

Very excited about Primary360.
$LVGO and $TDOC commercial integration fully completed from early this year.

Combined Teladoc and Livongo behavioral health products.

Can start Livongo through the $TDOC app.
Q: Competition?

We have competitive advantages across all types of care and levels of providers.

Customers are looking for one point of sale not multiple vendors stitched together.

Proven by larger deals and more multi-product deals than ever. Proof with large blue plans.
Read 27 tweets
28 Apr
$SKLZ You heard it here first.

Congrats on the official launch @skillz.
$SKLZ also sent a message to developer accounts today.
Read 5 tweets
26 Apr
DM mentioned $SKLZ CEO will be on CNBC at 3PM.
Watching now, can confirm he will be on "shortly."
$SKLZ CEO on.

Surprised the entire interview is about the short reports. Seems like Paradise is also pretty surprised how negative it was.

Talking too quickly but I'll look for a video after.
Read 5 tweets
17 Apr
Starting a thread to collect some insights on $RDFN.

First: Redfin's Brokerage Market Share since 2015. Chugging along up and to the right, broke 1% recently. Image
Second: $RDFN's brokerage transaction over time, by source.

Three thoughts.
1) Immense seasonality.
2) Use of partnered agents hasn't really moved except during the last two quarters.
3) First party transactions are up and to the right. Image
Third: $RDFN Redfin Now (iBuying) was shut down during COVID which is the primary reason why this company (and $Z) can't be analyzed on the topline.

As they restart iBuying, topline growth is going to look insane in 2021. Image
Read 11 tweets
3 Apr
$SKLZ Updated Investor Presentation Posted
s26.q4cdn.com/331039098/file…

In this thread, I will quickly discuss updates between the SPAC presentation and this one.

For the following images: New presentation on the left, old presentation from the SPAC on the right.

1/
2/
Minutes per day from 62 to 60 mins - estimated by 4 minutes per tournament. I.e. Average games per day went from 15.5 to 15.

Makes sense as they have doubled the # of paying users in 2020 but not going to try and dissect 0.5 games per day as these are all rounded anyway.
3/
Updated with revenue beat $225M -> $230M as well as updated growth rate.

LTV/CAC reduced from 4.7x to 3.8x as they have unloaded on S&M. This is the most logical short-term bearish argument in my opinion. Watching closely.
Read 14 tweets
11 Mar
$SKLZ Investor Presentation! Lots of interesting data & charts!

Its fun to watch a new public company find their bearings around earnings. This should have been posted earlier.

I promise last $SKLZ post tonight.

Read for yourself here:
s26.q4cdn.com/331039098/file…
$SKLZ Some metrics already posted & discussed.
$SKLZ The GMV chart is interesting. A Q2 bump from lock-down followed by a continuation of their previous growth curve.
Read 7 tweets
10 Mar
$SKLZ Earnings call -

First introduced new board members which I spoke about.

First few statements about defending patents and stopping cheating as the core.

Focused on converting users to paid users.
$SKLZ CEO - We have been continually investing in synchronous gaming categories from RTS, FPS, racing genres. Synchronous content will expand our universe even more.
$SKLZ We have made significant investment in architecture for reliability and fast natured content.

$SKLZ In Q4 grew headcount by 64% (WOW). New investments in payments and software.
Read 19 tweets
10 Mar
$SKLZ Earnings:
$SKLZ Q4 Revenue increased 95% YoY and 13.3% Sequentially from Q3. FY20 Revenue above winter SPAC estimates by ~$5M. (fixed tweet location)
Struggling to find anything to write about LOL. Not as complicated as $FSLY. The numbers are all there. $SKLZ
Read 5 tweets
10 Mar
Curious to see how the market values $RBLX over the next year.

Bookings are what we would consider revenue for other firms as they defer revenue from currency sales over the average customer lifecycle.

Bookings projected to decline sequentially every quarter in 2021.
Am I reading this wrong or does $RBLX have 6.6% Gross Margins for first 9 months 2020 (excluding R&D, G&A, S&M)?
👀
For me personally, its a bit of a red flag when cost growth outpaces revenue growth when it isn't due to S&M spend.
Read 4 tweets
8 Mar
Wolfpack, before slandering a company by insinuating they faked a partnership with the NFL, consider looking at the NFL's own communications site.

Clowns.

nflcommunications.com/Pages/NFL-and-…
$SKLZ - Wolfpack, do you know people can look this stuff up? The largest existing shareholders sold less than 2% of their holdings in the offering. If I own 100 shares of $AAPL and sell 2 shares, that doesn't make me bearish on the company.

ImageImage
Wolfpack's short report on $SKLZ says "We’ve rarely experienced so many interviews with former employees who universally share such a negative opinion of their company’s CEO as we did with SKLZ and Andrew Paradise."

Compare to Glassdoor 85% CEO approval with nearly 200 reviews. ImageImage
Read 10 tweets
20 Feb
1/
After some thought, my mistake with #Bitcoin was taking its stated purpose(s) at face value.

Some $BTC proponents say it will be a global currency alternative to the dollar.

Some say its is simply an alternative to gold, aka an inflation hedge.
2/
I accepted that it could be both. A currency and a "gold" / inflation hedge.

Neither of those make $BTC interesting to me as a growth investor.

I have no interest in hedging inflation as I don't carry any cash. Stocks themselves are a hedge against inflation.
3/
I've never bought TIPS, gold, or REITS.

Likewise for other currencies.

I've never owned other currencies to hedge against the devaluing of the dollar. I simply own a few international growth companies to take advantage of it.

I don't think many others have either.
Read 7 tweets
31 Dec 20
SPAC $NOVS merging with AppHarvest (to be $APPH)

Looks very.. curious (cough)..

Short thread:

Its a "high-tech" greenhouse/hydroponic grow operation.

They just completed construction and planted their first harvest in their first building in October 2020 (2 months ago, yes) Image
They call themselves a "high-tech greenhouse company"... Image
.. but all of their technology listed is outsourced from a host of companies.. ImageImage
Read 9 tweets
21 Dec 20
I have started a position in $SSPK.
-
SPAC - $SSPK Silver Spike Acquisition Comp

They are merging with WM Holdings, Inc who owns Weedmaps. Founded in 2008. Lead by CEO Chris Beals. Former life-sciences attorney (important - will come in later).
Basic Description:

The business is a two-sided marketplace which serves customers and sellers of marijuana products.

Who are they?
On the consumer side, weedmaps.com which is a marketplace for standardized marijuana products.

Weed Maps is the world’s largest base of cannabis users with over 10M MAUs, 90% of which are cannabis users, and a stunning 70% are DAILY users.
Read 30 tweets