Thread by @DeanMThomson

A recent poll has made a big splash about the potential of this #Supermajority. But if we take a moment to just look at the polling trend lines, it's far too early to be making any sort of prognostication about any such thing.

Plus SNP majority? What SNP majority?

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➡️Trend line since January 2021 - early April

Even to a layman's eyes, the downward trajectory of SNP support in regional polling is obvious.

If anyone is interested, the trendlines are local regressions (LOESS)
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Here the same downward trajectory can also still be seen with SNP constituency polling; albeit their support on the constituency has a higher upper level it's declining from.
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➡️Eroding SNP support since last year

If we look wider than Jan 2021, we see on the regional polling a consistent picture of eroding SNP support.

August 10th - March 19th. Since this time snap, SNP list polling has fallen sub 40%; the picture has worsened since March.
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And it surely goes without saying that an SNP barely scrapping one or two list MSPs isn't going to secure a majority (they need 65 MSPs for an outright majority).

The regional polling suggests another minority SNP gov't is most likely.
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Even on the constituency, if we take a wider look it's clear SNP polling has been eroding since last year.

Oct 7 - March 19 indicates the scale of the lost SNP support. The trend lines Jan to April 2021 do not, based on the trend lines, suggest any change to slow slide.
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➡️Nicola Sturgeon's approvals

Based on Survation polling Nicola Sturgeon's personal numbers have gotten worse since the 2016 election.

These survation polls are Scotland specific.
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While the Scotland-specific numbers show Ms Sturgeon's personal ratings in decline among Scots; her UK wide ratings are even worse. Here is renfield and wilton strategies recently recording their lowest ever net rating for the FM.
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So what can we conclude from all of this?

1⃣ Don't bother with individual polls, they are meaningless in isolation. Merely a snapshot in time. What matters are the wider trends of data.

2⃣ There is no reason to assume (so far) the SNP's downward trend lines are halting
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3⃣ The First Minister wanted the Hamilton Report to be a strategic 'reset' moment, I don't see much evidence of that having happened (so far)

4⃣ The election has a long way to go, so stop your fussing over individual polls everyone. Spare yourself the heart palpitations.
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5⃣ Based on the data trends *so far* the most likely outcome is another SNP minority government...BUT...

6⃣ I repeat one last time for emphasis IT IS TOO EARLY TO MAKE SOLID PREDICTIONS.
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