Thread: The notion that there are foreign elements to the Jordan/Prince Hamza saga is a distraction, IMO. Allow me to discount those pointing to Netanyahu/MBS/MBZ axis wanting to undermine Abdullah: a) Jordanian & Israeli intelligence & military have a strong working relationship
b) Netanyahu and Abdullah may not get along (see dispute over plane landings & Jor CP visit to Jerusalem), but N. couldn't get such a plan approved by his security sector. N. is on thin ice & Israeli security folks have decent working relationship with existing Jor. apparatus. /2
c) Why drop the 'foreign angle'? Rally around the flag effect. King deemed as savior of Arab/Palestinian cause...ect. d) Ppl making much of Awadallah's connection to MBS as proof of Saudi involvement. But, Hamzah & Awadallah have completely diff support base & world views. /3
Hamzah's support is East Bank tribes. The so called reasoning for Hamzah to side with the 'axis' is to get him to accept WB annexation, 'alternate state of Jordan for Palestinians, ect. Not believable at all. These are all antithetical goals of East Bankers who want 2 state /4
solution. Again, the 'foreign angle' is a distraction for Jordanians from seeing this as coup-proofing against a popular Prince in East Banker circles. I'm not suggesting that regional/int'l meddling is not an issue or hasn't happened in the past. Just that this doesn't hold up/5
I don't think there were coup attempts either. Just coup-proofing (very different). I also hate drudging up odd conspiracies, but its all on Arabic satellite news & I wanted to use basic IR and PSCI views of interests and bureaucratic theories to discount a popular trope... /6
I welcome thoughtful and respectful debate on my political analysis (not preferences). But just as I won't discount your intelligence and suggest that you have biases, please do the same. /END
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