More from @james_d_baird

James Baird

@james_d_baird

Nov 27, 2021

elon uses business to make the future

buffett uses business to make money

if you want to speculate on the future, go long tesla

if you want to invest for a reasonable return, go long berkshire

think of buying tesla like philanthropy for humanity, with a fat-tail chance of big speculative gains and losses

think of berkshire like investing in a vehicle for capital preservation, with paper-thin tail risk of losing your principal over the long term

Read 4 tweets

James Baird

@james_d_baird

May 23, 2021

I spent the weekend with a CIA operative and bomb-disposal expert.

Here’s what I learned 💡

1. Obsession > Intelligence

People who care orders of magnitude more than their peers outperform their smarter colleagues every day of the week—and by exceptional margins.

2. Risk > Ass Covering

You might get a nice watch after 40 years if you’re good at covering your ass.

But you won’t have much fun—and you definitely won’t move the needle for the agency or the nation.

3. Emergent Opportunities > Bureaucratic Objectives

The chance to make a real difference comes from real work in the real world.

“Handbook goals” mean nothing compared to situational opportunities that careful, thoughtful workers find on the front line.

Read 4 tweets

James Baird

@james_d_baird

May 23, 2021

if decision science has proven anything over the past fifty years it’s this:

1) the future is unpredictable; but
2) human behavior is not

bezos mastered these truths 👇🏼

“I very frequently get the question: 'What's going to change in the next 10 years?'

I almost never get the question: 'What's not going to change in the next 10 years?'

And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two.

You can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time.

It's impossible to imagine a future where a customer says,

'Jeff I love Amazon; I just wish the prices were a little higher,' or 'I love Amazon; I just wish you'd deliver a little more slowly.’

Read 4 tweets