Thread by @Noahpinion

1/Today's @bopinion post is about Biden vs. FDR.

How is Biden's program different from the New Deal?

A number of ways.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

2/First the similarities:
* public works
* support for unions
* support for the poor and working class

3/But the big difference: We're not in a Depression now.

4/Because we're not in a Depression, Biden didn't have to worry about spending on things with a high fiscal multiplier (in fact, a low multiplier could even be good, if overheating is a danger).

And he also didn't have to worry about the Gold Standard like FDR did.

5/The New Dealers had a lot of data on prices and quantities in various industries, so they tried to control those directly. It didn't go well.

But Biden is armed with quality economic research supporting the idea of unconditional cash benefits.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

6/FDR didn't spend money on government research til WW2. He stumbled on that successful model.

Biden, however, is doing it on purpose, from day 1.

nber.org/papers/w27375

7/In fact, FDR didn't HAVE to spend much on research before WW2, because the 30s were actually a hugely innovative decade.

Now, however, we've been stuck in a productivity slowdown.

voxeu.org/article/americ…

8/FDR also presided over the mightiest industrial nation in the world.

Biden does not. China has taken that crown. Now, the U.S. is facing stiff competition.

And because of this, he's turning to industrial policy.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

9/In sum:

* FDR had to deal with a Depression.
* Biden, instead, has to deal with a productivity slowdown and competition from China.
* Biden has much better data at his command.

This means Bidenomics won't be quite like the New Deal.

(end)

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…