@elonmusk @CathieDWood @ARKInvest People often compare S&P market cap to US GDP:

apples to oranges (since companies sell global and domicile is decreasingly vital to distribution footprint).
@elonmusk @CathieDWood @ARKInvest And there is massive tailwind pressure from people, globally, trying to buy investable long-duration assets operating under the idea that they should stop producing/working at age 65 but continue living off saved resource until 90 (plus/minus 30 years?)
@elonmusk @CathieDWood @ARKInvest 3rd:

Investable assets are priced competitive to other stores of value. If locking money into the 10 year treasury yields less than 2% in annual incremental cashflow then what should I demand for an ownership share of a diversified set of global business interests?
@elonmusk @CathieDWood @ARKInvest And, on a global basis, things don't look terribly out of line considering how much lower "risk-free" assets have moved

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More from @wintonARK

21 Mar
@ChrisBloomstran Happy to receive feedback on the way we’ve modeled the insurance business.

I’ll walk through the mechanics of it in a bit and you can let me know how you would amend.

But first I’d like to level set and clear up a few misperceptions.
@ChrisBloomstran 1)
As described in the blog, the “bear case” as we’ve defined it is the 25th percentile outcome.

It is not the *worst* outcome (which, as with all equities, is bankruptcy.)

The case detailed in the blog is one of many possible ways that outcome could occur.
@ChrisBloomstran Because we have tried to distill the model into independent inputs the 25th percentile outcome is not the downside case for each of those inputs.

The bear case of 3 coinflips is not 3 tails, but 1 heads and 2 tails.
Read 16 tweets
21 Dec 20
Apple still reputedly planning to build an iCar.

The apparent secret sauce:
They watched the livestream of Tesla’s battery day;
They also took notes;
Then those notes were exclusively leaked to Reuters.

So they could hire, hoping to begin production by

[checks notes]

In 2011 I placed a number of 10 to 1 bets with friends that Apple would have an iCar in-market before April of ’21.

Going to lose.

But it always seemed like the right play for them, and I’m convinced that if Jobs hadn’t passed they would have made that bet (and made mine)
At the time (2011) people were arguing that Apple would vertically integrate through TV manufacture (which I always thought was inane).

There was (and still is!) so much transformation-potential in automotive, but they waited too long; Tesla is tearing through their green space.
Read 6 tweets
21 Dec 20
that competitor you thought you didn't need to worry about due to your unimpeachable network-effect-derived moat
yes they are digital businesses--in an increasingly digital world--but this serves as a reminder: most payments are hyper-hyper-local.

you exchange resources daily with the people that you see daily.
Interesting (to me):
Compared to other canonical network effect failures, Venmo isn't obviously mis-executing to allow @CashApp to chase it down.

MySpace caught Friendster due to Friendster's infrastructure failures.

Then MySpace sold and overmonetized opening the door to FB.
Read 6 tweets
20 Dec 20
Balance sheet management probably evolves into immediate conversion of all foreign-denominated profits into Bitcoin

Thinking about companies that accrue huge cash balances off-shore and keep them inaccessible to avoid punitive US tax

(And all attendant inefficiencies and costs)
You liability match against all local costs and then shift everything else into the currency without a country.

Eliminates all kinds of exotic hedging, bond market operations and legal shells that are otherwise required to balance sheet optimize against a global footprint
(This new world is not great for the investment banks or a whole coven of associated legal purveyors of structuring and advice, so expect this transition to be accompanied by all manner of carping cacophony)
Read 4 tweets
18 Dec 20
On the 12th day of Christmas
innovation gave to me

12 CRISPRs cutting Image
Read 12 tweets
18 Dec 20
On the 11th day of Christmas
innovation gave to me

11 teraOps Image
Novel living drugs

Read 11 tweets

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