David Galbraith Profile picture
Apr 7, 2021 17 tweets 4 min read Read on X
The end of growth .
1. The growth in number of Internet users has halted.
2. Our attention is saturated.
3. Toxicity on social media creates reverse network effects.
4. And network virality is throttled by platforms as attention gatekeepers.
5. Meanwhile, nationalist politics reverses globalized trade.
5. Neglect of class politics raises inequality
6. And even the attempt to redress it with a shift to fiscal policy has counter affects as it reduces foreign investment.
7. Shipping costs go up through disruption to fragile supply chains
8. And debt within global supply chains stymies independent developing world growth
9. And lynchpins in the global economy like Taiwan and TSMC create shortages of digital era resources - semiconductors.
10. And sanctions on their suppliers.
In summary: the rise of Chinese low cost production and the development of the Internet and smartphone increased information and trade flows creating huge growth, lowering measured inflation and reducing cost of capital which fueled this further.
Now the replacement of Left vs Right with Globalist vs Nationalist and the rise of nationalism and the increase in Chinese prosperity & wages slows trade.
While slowing of the growth of Internet users and possible time spent on smartphones coupled with reverse network effects (more Twitter users makes it more toxic) and lack of natural virality (CAC increases as platforms are gatekeepers of finite attention) slow information flows.
The switch to fiscal vs monetary policy post Covid and the reduced percentage of foreign held US debt increases inflation and reduces long term value of the dollar.
So secular deflation and asset inflation reverses and inequality between rich and poor countries increases while inequality within rich countries decreases. And a new world emerges.
(and of course... The inevitable typo in tweet one which should read 'the rate of growth')

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More from @daveg

Nov 20, 2022
Here is a recipe for how to build a place like this. Importantly, it has to be a recipe, not a design.

Establish a simple hierarchy like the human body: a head (here, the cathedral), and the rest. At building level either consciously use symmetry or consciously break it.
Have squarish spaces between buildings for people to interact. Put trees in them where possible.
Prioritise pedestrians over bicycles and bicycles and motor scooters over cars. Remove on street parking and remove bicycle lanes where spaces can be pedestrian first.
Read 9 tweets
May 4, 2022
Fantastic thread. Why movies are full of recycling franchises like Marvel while innovation in indie fringes doesn't percolate up. I suspect reason for this is the following:
Mainstream is hyperconnected, over-dense network (groupthink, ossified) and is potentially disrupted only when overall network becomes a small world one (goldilocks area between connected and Balkanized) and stuff that appears in the creative niches can bubble up to mainstream.
Reason it isn't bubbling up to mainstream is that niches have also been hijacked with their own form of groupthink (Taleb's tyranny of the minority), meaning that alternative though or creativity is suppressed where the niches are in open forum or connect to the mainstream.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 4, 2021
1. Crypto is a technical solution to pure Internet infrastructure, it can’t prevent laws against it. Financial services consist of a technical and regulatory component.
2. The adoption of Internet based currency tokens by central banks uses a crypto based technical solution to replace banking rails with the Internet. It doesn’t use the crypto aspect for regulation so is not decentralised.
3. DeFi extends crypto solutions to financial products and ownership more widely. Financial products are basically fungible contracts and ownership, transferable non fungible ones.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 12, 2021
China's digital currency, what does it mean?

1. Coins & notes can be replaced by digital and govt now has a way to funnel cash directly to citizens, UBI style.
2. Bitcoin is not challenged much by this. It is digital gold and truly decentralized.
3. Yes it is a step away from dollar hegemony because...
Read 10 tweets
Apr 7, 2021
Coinbase is like Netscape. It's a well designed UI on top of a new network (Bitcoin/web) created using a new protocol (Bitcoin spec/HTTP). It's worth more than Netscape because it holds currency but maybe it should be valued based on financial services, not tech stock growth.
Like Netscape and unlike, say, Facebook, it doesn't own its own protocol. It's not a platform in the traditional sense.
Now you could argue that Coinbase is like Google which sits directly on the web and therefore doesn't own its own protocol, but Google monetizes its traffic not its deposits or their transactions.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 30, 2020
Presidential debates don't matter. They are obsolete, game-show era media invented in their current format for TV, which isn't really a thing anymore.
Attachment to them is cultural in the US. European countries like France and the UK have only recently started copying them, ironically just as the world is about to move on.
There were other ways of doing this before. In the US, in the Lincoln era, debates were face to face with no moderator (game shows hadn't been invented). In the UK they were out in the streets on soap boxes.
Read 8 tweets

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