Thread by @daveg

The end of growth .
1. The growth in number of Internet users has halted.

2. Our attention is saturated.

3. Toxicity on social media creates reverse network effects.

4. And network virality is throttled by platforms as attention gatekeepers.

5. Meanwhile, nationalist politics reverses globalized trade.

5. Neglect of class politics raises inequality

6. And even the attempt to redress it with a shift to fiscal policy has counter affects as it reduces foreign investment.

7. Shipping costs go up through disruption to fragile supply chains

8. And debt within global supply chains stymies independent developing world growth

9. And lynchpins in the global economy like Taiwan and TSMC create shortages of digital era resources - semiconductors.

10. And sanctions on their suppliers.

In summary: the rise of Chinese low cost production and the development of the Internet and smartphone increased information and trade flows creating huge growth, lowering measured inflation and reducing cost of capital which fueled this further.

Now the replacement of Left vs Right with Globalist vs Nationalist and the rise of nationalism and the increase in Chinese prosperity & wages slows trade.

While slowing of the growth of Internet users and possible time spent on smartphones coupled with reverse network effects (more Twitter users makes it more toxic) and lack of natural virality (CAC increases as platforms are gatekeepers of finite attention) slow information flows.

The switch to fiscal vs monetary policy post Covid and the reduced percentage of foreign held US debt increases inflation and reduces long term value of the dollar.

So secular deflation and asset inflation reverses and inequality between rich and poor countries increases while inequality within rich countries decreases. And a new world emerges.

(and of course... The inevitable typo in tweet one which should read 'the rate of growth')