In the 1960s, a fear of overpopulation swept across the world. This worry was nothing new…
Centuries earlier, an economist warned that limited food supplies would lead humans into a “Cycle of Misery”.
It’s time for a thread on how humans have escaped the Malthusian Trap👇👇👇
Centuries earlier, an economist warned that limited food supplies would lead humans into a “Cycle of Misery”.
It’s time for a thread on how humans have escaped the Malthusian Trap👇👇👇
1) The Malthusian Trap is a theory which argues that, unchecked, population growth will outpace increases in food production and inevitably lead to global famine.
The theory is named after Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834), the economist who proposed this principle in 1798.
The theory is named after Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834), the economist who proposed this principle in 1798.
2) Malthus writes, “Population increases in a geometrical ratio”, while “subsistence increases only in an arithmetic ratio”.
Because humans need food to survive, over time, the population would remain in line with the natural fertility of the land.
Because humans need food to survive, over time, the population would remain in line with the natural fertility of the land.
3) Due to limited resources (i.e. food supply), any period of prosperity with excess population growth would ultimately end in “misery” (famine) and “vice” (war).
4) Without restraint (abstinence or postponement of marriage), mankind was “condemned to a perpetual oscillation between happiness and misery”.
Malthus called this “The Cycle of Misery”…
Malthus called this “The Cycle of Misery”…
5) In his economic pessimism, Malthus failed to account for the ingenuity of mankind.
First, humans improved farming methods during the Agricultural Revolution (18th-19th Century).
Then, humans increased the use of chemical fertilizers during the Green Revolution (1960s).
First, humans improved farming methods during the Agricultural Revolution (18th-19th Century).
Then, humans increased the use of chemical fertilizers during the Green Revolution (1960s).
6) These innovations allowed food commodities to be produced in abundance and become less expensive- even as the population grew 7x since 1800.
Malthus’ oversight of human resourcefulness could have been because his theory was based on observations of rabbits. Just a guess.
Malthus’ oversight of human resourcefulness could have been because his theory was based on observations of rabbits. Just a guess.
7) Nonetheless, “Neo-Malthusians” maintain that population growth is unsustainable and will eventually lead to a crisis.
Especially in the 1950s-70s, there was a Malthusian revival.
Best-selling books forecast that overpopulation would cause global famines in coming decades…
Especially in the 1950s-70s, there was a Malthusian revival.
Best-selling books forecast that overpopulation would cause global famines in coming decades…
8) While these predictions turned out to be wrong, Paul Ehrlich, author of “The Population Bomb” and a professor at Stanford University, maintains that “medium-term solutions” to overpopulation have only delayed the inevitable.
9) Echoing Malthus, Ehrlich insists there are only two paths forward. Either:
A) “a Birth Rate Solution, in which we find ways to lower the birth rate”, or
B) a “Death Rate Solution, in which ways to raise the death rate – war, famine, and pestilence (pandemics) – find us”…
A) “a Birth Rate Solution, in which we find ways to lower the birth rate”, or
B) a “Death Rate Solution, in which ways to raise the death rate – war, famine, and pestilence (pandemics) – find us”…
10) If you learned something, you should check out BrainFeed, the internet’s most interesting email that explains everything you should know in 4-minute bites. Subscribe for free: brainfeed.co
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