I know there are people convinced that the public letter from 15 (now 17) UCP MLAs is some sort of 3D strategic chess from Kenney. I'm sorry I don't buy it. What Premier wants 25%+ of his caucus in public revolt over govt handling of the most important issue facing the province?
The letter reflects an internal battle within the UCP caucus for months that has now gone public. It also illustrates the rural/urban and ideological splits that we have seen in polling data.
This defiance also illustrates the dropping overall support of the UCP. You wouldn't get backbenchers going public like this if the UCP were leading in the polls.
The UCP is less than 4 years old. There are geographical/ideological tensions within the party that are now being exacerbated by a pandemic and dropping popularity. As I have written elsewhere, conservative parties in Alberta have a tendency to splinter.
I know people will contend that the letter couldn't have been written without the support of Kenney. But occam's razor is that the simplest answer makes the most sense: the letter reflects the dissatisfaction that Kenney is facing within his own caucus.

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More from @DuaneBratt

31 Oct 19
Others will have better commentary on the business aspects of Encana's decision to move HQ to US. But here are some initial thoughts on the politics.
Alberta Energy Company was created as a provincial crown corporation by Lougheed to invest in oil & gas sector, but more importantly to ensure that the AB govt had a window on the sector.
In this respect, and despite their numerous major differences, Lougheed's motivations with AEC was similiar to Pierre Trudeau and Petro-Canada.
Read 10 tweets
17 Mar 19
Some further thoughts on Kenney-Callaway collusion story. Reading the story, there are lots of names named. With one exception. Kenney clearly took steps to isolate himself from collusion efforts with Callaway. So far, its all of Kenney's men, but not Kenney himself.
Many party leadership races are dirty and nasty. Mulroney vs Clark. Chretien vs Martin. Closer to home Klein vs Betkowski. We even have examples of mid-range candidates coordinating before or after the ballot. But...
I have not seen the level of documentation of collusion between a front runner and a "kamikaze" candidate before. Callaway was recruited, staffed, and given strategic advice by the Kenney team. Sole purpose to attack Brian Jean and then quit race and support Kenney.
Read 8 tweets

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