With full March border numbers out, I want to re-up and update this thread for any reporters who are writing on the news out of CBP today.

We continue to see two very different phenomena occurring at the border, and it's very important to distinguish between the two!
Single adults continue to be the biggest driver of headlines about "border numbers."

Apprehensions of single adults are going back to the 1990s-2000s, driven by many people crossing repeatedly thanks to Title 42. And like back in the day, almost all get sent back to Mexico.
When it comes to family units, we have seen a distinct increase in families beginning in January. This seems driven both by Mexico's refusal to accept many families that Trump/Biden wanted to expel, as well as a sense that now is the time. It's looking a lot like 2019.
When it comes to unaccompanied children, we really are seeing record numbers, exceeding the spikes we saw in 2014, 2018, and 2019.

Since November 18, 2020, no unaccompanied children have been expelled under Title 42. But numbers had been increasing even during the expulsions.
When we take into account the number of people actually expelled back to Mexico and just look at those who are being processed under normal immigration laws, things suddenly look very different.

Families and children are half of 2019 and the border is far less "open" than 2019.
To sum this 🧵 up:

- The biggest driver of "big numbers" headlines is single adults, which began last year. Almost all are rapidly expelled.
- Families and kids is looking a lot like 2019, with more unaccompanied children offset by fewer families, especially due to expulsions.
Keep in mind that dealing with single adult crossers is the Border Patrol's bread and butter. They dealt with this volume for nearly a half-century. But since 2013, they've made few attempts to handle more families and kids coming—and kids locked in cells is the result.
Finally, we have to keep in mind that the Biden administration has continued to expel families encountered at the border, even those who are seeking asylum.

Last month, there were nearly 19,000 expulsions of families to Mexico.
One last addendum; for those reading this thread who aren't fully clear about what "Title 42" is, we @immcouncil have a fact sheet for you! americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/guide…

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More from @ReichlinMelnick

8 Apr
What a great article on TPS! Also so important to highlight, as @RepMcGovern notes, that "T.P.S. was a response to America’s foreign policy in El Salvador and to its discrimination against Salvadoran refugees..."

We keep trying to run from the consequences of our decisions.
Seriously, such a fantastic article. This passage quoting Maureen Sweeney is so important to understand WHY strong asylum protections were put into the law in 1996, laws that many now call "loopholes." Because the Reagan administration just flagrantly turned away asylum seekers.
When discussing "what's happening at the border" I've started making brief historical detours to the Reagan Administration's flagrant attacks on Central American refugees, because that *recent history* has an enormous impact on the laws, policies, and trends of today.
Read 4 tweets
2 Apr
Strong circumstantial evidence in this piece that Robert Law was heavily involved in creating the Kafkaesque blank spaces policy, where asylum applicants who failed to write "N/A" in every single space, no matter how irrelevant or inapplicable, had their applications rejected.
Robert Law was the government relations director at @FAIRImmigration, an anti-immigrant hate group, before he became head of the @USCIS policy shop under the Trump administration. After Biden won he left and joined @CIS_org, FAIR's sister group.
Read this language and remember it came from someone who was put in charge of policy for the United States' legal immigration benefits agency.

It's filled with outrageous presumptions that almost all claims are fraudulent and "illegal aliens" shouldn't receive benefits at all. For example, the system is overrun with fraudulent, frivolou
Read 5 tweets
2 Apr
EOIR has rolled back some, but not all, of the changes from last November's "case processing flow" memo.

Big difference? No longer required to file both pleadings and relief applications. Now it's pleadings first, then relief applications 60 days after removability established.
Here are the key paragraphs on operational rules under the new memo. The big differences between the old one and new one are several additional nods to judges' discretion to set their own scheduling, and two separate schedules for removability and applications for relief.
The memo sets a new and hilariously short 90-day timeline for merits hearing, with a massive "subject to docket availability" line which means that the 90-day schedule will be in most cases anywhere from 2-4 years.
Read 4 tweets
2 Apr
When we talk about border numbers, there are two very different phenomena occurring now. First, the one driving the "big numbers" headlines—single adults, who were 58% of March apprehensions.

That trend began last year when Title 42 went into place and pandemic lockdowns lifted.
Second, families and unaccompanied children, two groups whose numbers had been rising throughout 2020, but more slowly than single adults. Numbers increased rapidly after January.

However, there are still fewer families than in 2019, while there are more unaccompanied children.
So what happens when you combine these two different trends going on at the same time, one which began last year and one which recently accelerated? The highest March border encounters since 2006, with 58% being single adults and 42% being families and unaccompanied children.
Read 4 tweets
1 Apr
This morning @DHSOIG revealed the results of surprise inspections at the ICE detention center in Eloy, AZ. The OIG says that "detainee reports and grievances allege an environment of mistreatment and verbal abuse," and that the jail is likely responsible for a COVID outbreak.
Here's the primary conclusion of @DHSOIG's report on the La Palma Correctional Center in Eloy, AZ, where conditions for those held by ICE have long been reported as terrible.

Alarms have been raised about this detention center for years!

Last year, it was reported that private prison company CoreCivic was forcing asylum seekers held at La Palma to clean the jails, threatening to throw them in solitary confinement if they refused to do things like clean feces from a cell without gloves. thehill.com/homenews/admin…
Read 5 tweets
31 Mar
I still maintain that this estimate is WILDLY wrong, and I will eat my (nonexistent) hat if it's right.

March will likely hit ~145,000 encounters, making ~542,000 for the FY so far.

Getting to 2,000,000 requires an average 243,000 encounters from April-September. That's unreal.
The highest recorded monthly apprehensions in the highest year ever was 220,063 in March 2000. That month, it's likely there were at least ~500,000 crossings (many the same people crossing multiple times).

So 243,000 monthly apprehensions through September is a WILD prediction.
Also I'm pretty sure I remember seeing that CBP estimated over 1,000,000 apprehensions in 2019, which... did not happen.

If anyone can find that prediction, which I think was reported on in late 2018/early 2019, I will owe them my gratitude. I've been trying to dig it up.
Read 9 tweets

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