Thread by @DanAkivis

Lets talk about late-stage dynamics and what's happening in the market. TL:DR - valuations will continue to go up as crossover funds continue to aggressively lead rounds. Here's how I see it 👇

First, some back of the envelope math re: #TigerGlobal latest fund ($6.65B). Lets assume its 75%/25% initial to follow on capital. That means they need to deploy $4.5B net of fees initially. To deploy $4.5B, if you write $50-$100M checks,

you need to write 45-90 checks into companies, which means many check sizes are likely going to be north of $100M. All this while watching #d1capital, #durablecapital, #coatue, @altcap, #greenoakscapital, etc. aggressively compete for deals - which means each is winning on speed,

brand, and dollar amount, and dollar amount is directly linked to valuation all else equal. So in this environment, seeing 50-150x ARR isn't egregious anymore.

All this to say that you can be rest assured that we're going to see a lot more unicorns, decacorn, centicorns, or any other corn you like. So now that we called out the funds that are basically in every single growth round, what happens to the traditional multi-stage funds?

Welp, your guess is as good as mine - but I'm betting that hedge fund guys beat venture guys in their own game. This is a battle of the vests! At worst we see a new normal when it comes to valuations, or rather "over" valuations. We're lucky Ben Graham isn't alive to see this!