Glen Peters Profile picture
Apr 9, 2021 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Finland had a special year in 2019, worth a look...

In terms of Primary Energy, the largest energy source in Finland is now bioenergy, passing oil in 2019!

Finland also has a high share of nuclear...

1/
As of 2019, Finland now emits less CO₂ than Sweden & Norway in aggregate terms.

Finnish CO₂ emissions went down 9% in 2019.

Interesting to see how things look in 2021 (after 2020 changes).

2/
Though, CO₂ emissions per person are still relatively high in Finland, more than twice the global average.

In good news, Finnish CO₂ emissions per person are falling relatively fast.

3/
And here are total GHG emissions up until 2018, showing the size of the LULUCF sector in Finaldn...

(more later)

/end
Continued...

Here are the CO₂ emissions including LULUCF. The net CO₂ emissions have risen, due to a weakening sink (the gross emissions should be the same as tweet #2)

5/
The LULUCF CO₂ emissions have increased (got less negative) due to less update in forests.

I do not know why, would have to ask a Finn! Could be increased harvest, management, age class effects, etc.

6/
Methane emissions have continued downwards, primarily due to less methane emissions in the waste sector.

7/
N₂O emissions have been flat, except from a dramatic drop around 2008/2009. This is probably a factory closure.

8/8

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More from @Peters_Glen

Nov 13, 2024
📢Global Carbon Budget 2024📢

Despite some predicting a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions, we estimate growth of 0.8% [-0.3% to 1.9%] in 2024. Maybe a peak next year?

Is it all bad news, or can we find some good news?

1/ Image
We estimate EU emissions down 3.8%, US edged down 0.6%, & Chinese emissions edged up 0.2%.

Emissions were up strongly in India 4.6% & international aviation 13.5%.

The record growth in renewables is helping bend the curve, just not enough to get a peak in global emissions.

2/ Image
Land use change emissions have been edging down the last two decades, but with a slight & uncertain tick up in the last years.

We expect a rise in 2024, driven by fire emissions linked to deforestation & degradation in South America, exacerbated by a temporary El Niño.

3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Sep 16, 2024
I am still pondering over 2023 & El Nino. Is 2023 an (unusual) outlier or not?

Looking at anomaly in 2023 relative to the trendline (loess 50 year window), without (left) & with (right) annualised ENSO lags, then 2023 is rather mundane.

1/
Image
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When looking at the temperature change relative to the previous year, without (left) & with (right) annualised ENSO lags, then 2023 is more unusual depending on the lag.

If 2023 is unusual, then it could be equally explained by 2022 being low (rather than 2023 being high).

2/
Image
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There are numerous ways to consider ENSO. I have used annualised indexes, & various lags can be included. It is also possible to take sub-annual indexes (eg, several months), & again, various lags.

What is statistically best? I presume there is a paper on this.

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Sep 13, 2024
I started to take an interest in the 2023 temperature increase...

The first plot I did, to my surprise, seems to suggest that 2023 is not unusual at all (given El Nino).

Why?

1/ Image
It all depends on how you slice the data. The previous figure was the anomaly relative to a trend (loess with 50 year window).

If I plot the change from the previous year (delta T), then 2023 is more unusual. Though, still, is it 2023 that is unusual, or 2022, or 2016, or?

2/ Image
The loess trend changes shape with the data, making the 2023 anomaly smaller. It is also possible to use a linear trend, making the 2023 anomaly larger.

Comparing the anomaly to a linear trend will make 2023 more important (than if loess is used).

3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 6, 2024
Has the land sink collapsed in 2023?

I am not so convinced. The land sink has a lot of variability, mainly due to El Nino, and an El Nino overlapped 2023. So we expect a lower land sink in 2023.

(My estimate assumes the ocean sink was average).

1/ Image
Was 2023 an El Nino year? That is not so obvious...

How does one average the monthly sea surface data to an annual value El Nino index? How does one account for the lag between El Nino and the change in atmospheric CO2 growth?

There is no unique answer to this.

2/ Image
This figure shows the monthly El Nino index annualised with different time lags. 2023 is an El Nino or La Nina, depending on how you average!

@richardabetts & @chrisd_jones use a 9 month lag in their work (which means 2023 was a La Nina)!


3/ metoffice.gov.uk/research/clima…
Image
Read 10 tweets
Jun 12, 2024
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) is no laughing matter, atmospheric N2O has increased 25% due to human activities.

Today @gcarbonproject updates the Global Nitrous Oxide Budget, which helps us understand where the N2O comes from and where it goes.



1/ essd.copernicus.org/articles/16/25…
Image
According to IPCC AR6, N2O caused 0.1°C of the current warming of 1.1°C (not this figure is now higher).

This may sound small, but since N2O is long-lived (like CO2) & primarily comes from agriculture, that 0.1°C will only go up in the future.

2/ Image
There are many sources of N2O, over half of which are natural (soils).

Anthropogenic sources are dominated by agriculture (soils & manure management) & industry (chemicals).

The sink is due to photolysis & oxidation in the atmosphere.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Jun 5, 2024
Greenhouse gas emissions are at record highs, again.

The only good news is that Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) regulating under the Montreal Protocol have declined substantially in the last decades.

But what does all this mean for climate?



1/ 🧵 essd.copernicus.org/articles/16/26…
Image
Record high emissions means record high radiative forcing.

We have you covered, we also include aerosols (SO2, etc) & have done so for decades. Also shipping!

Short-lived aerosols are important, but should not distract from the drivers of change: greenhouse gas emissions!

2/ Image
Most of the energy put into the system ends in the ocean (90%), so the Ocean Heat Content (OHC) has been increasing along with emissions and radiative forcing.

This also means the Earth Energy Imbalance is also increasing.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets

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