1/6

NOPE apparently means “net options pricing effect”, and the "theory" recognizes that delta hedging is highly self-reinforcing – i.e. rising prices force delta hedgers to buy, thus pushing prices up further, while falling prices do the opposite.

ft.com/content/dd3b8f…
2/6

We've known this for a long time, however, and it is true of any form of leverage, with the main difference between "straight" leverage and leverage through options being that the former is linear and the latter non-linear.
3/6

I discuss this in my 2001 book, for example, as an example of balance-sheet "inversion", as have George Soros, Hyman Minsky and, in a different way, Irving Fischer. When I used to trade Latin American bonds, we always kept an eye on the amount of...

amazon.com/Volatility-Mac…
4/6

options and leveraged positions in the market because the more leverage there was, the more likely price moves in either direction (especially down) would be automatically reinforced by additional buying or selling. In fact I believe that the 1987 crash was widely blamed...
5/6

on "portfolio insurance" which was just delta hedging under a different name.

The important point, which we always relearn during a financial crisis and then promptly forget, is that techniques and instruments that are often counter-cyclical in well-functioning markets...
6/6

are likely to be used in highly pro-cyclical ways in speculative markets, and this mechanically causes volatility in both directions to rise, especially on the way down.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Michael Pettis

Michael Pettis Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @michaelxpettis

12 Apr
1/6

Thanks, Diane. You make an important point, which is that the main problem is not that they are lying about their GDP data, as many people assume, but rather that China's GDP data measures things (investment, for example) that in some cases represent real growth in the...
2/6

underlying economy and in other cases don't. The problem is that we don't distinguish the difference between the two.

The CIA stats on the USSR, for example, did a better job of measuring "actual" economic activity than the published Soviet reports, but then we simply...
3/6

assumed – incorrectly, as it turned out – that this economic activity must have the same relationship to the underlying economy as it did in more market-driven economies like that of the US and the UK. The fact that economic agents in these economies operate with hard...
Read 6 tweets
12 Apr
1/6

The Biden administration’s stimulus package is definitely good for US growth – more US consumption encourages US businesses to invest more – but part of this positive impact will be dissipated by an expanding US trade deficit, the consequence of...
scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/6

which would be effectively to convert a portion of the increase in US consumption into an increase in foreign savings, much or most of which the US will be forced to absorb.

The problem isn’t that an increase in US demand will flow abroad in the form of...
3/6

imports. This wouldn’t matter if US trade partners implemented similar policies that focus on expanding the demand-side of their economies, in which case higher US imports would be balanced by higher US exports.
Read 6 tweets
11 Apr
1/8

Zhang Bin notes that China’s reliance on debt-fueled growth – especially local-government debt – is creating huge systemic risks for the economy and argues that Beijing should rely more on US-style quantitative easing, rather than Chinese-style...

scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/8

fiscal expansion, to power growth. Among other things he says the former will lower debt costs, strengthen the role of the private sector, and raise the consumption share of GDP.

While he is certainly right to worry about China’s terrible debt burden and the role of...
3/8

fiscal spending in driving it, I am not sure US-style QE will help. To the extent it lowers borrowing costs, this will mostly come at the expense of depositors, which means downward pressure on the household share of GDP and, with it, on the consumption share, in which...
Read 8 tweets
10 Apr
1/4

It is probably much too late, but Beijing seems more determined than ever to take steps to stabilize home prices, with the deputy housing minister repeating the now-common mantras: “Local governments should take responsibility to ensure that a...

scmp.com/business/china…
2/4

home is for living in, not for speculation, and should not use the real estate sector as a short-term tool to stimulate economic development.”

That sounds reasonable, but the fact remains that the real estate sector and infrastructure spending are China’s most important...
3/4

tools for stimulating economic activity. Beijing cannot expect to come close to doubling GDP in 15 years without extensive use of both tools, which means that while they might be able to rein in housing prices this year as a partial reversal of last year’s terrible...
Read 4 tweets
9 Apr
1/10

CFR has put together an excellent “Global Imbalances Tracker” that allows users access to current account data in a very handy format. There were two things that struck me most as I went through it.

on.cfr.org/3mIWx7W via @CFR_org
2/10

First, CFR helpfully groups together the Anglophone countries (US, UK, Canada, Australia, NZ) to show that collectively they typically account for roughly 2/3s to 3/4s of global current account deficits. This is an extraordinarily high share, especially considering that...
3/10

trade theory suggests advanced economies should generally be running surpluses. In fact the CFR data show that other advanced economies do indeed overwhelmingly run current account surpluses, collectively accounting for roughly two-thirds of total global surpluses.
Read 10 tweets
8 Apr
1/10

Good piece by @yuenyuenang in which she argues that the conditions have changed that once made GDP growth targets useful as a way of organizing and directing China's growth model. What made crude sense when China was very poor no longer makes sense.

scmp.com/comment/opinio…
2/10

I agree. In the 1980s China was so underinvested for its level of institutional development that the best thing it could do for growth was to organize its financial and governance systems around maximizing investment in infrastructure and manufacturing. It didn't even...
3/10

matter how poorly projects were selected and how inefficiently the financial system allocated capital as long as investment was maximized.

GDP growth targets in that case helped because all it took to meet them was more gross investment, and so they became a...
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!