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Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
@jukka235
Apr 12, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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Suomen epidemia 11.4.2021: ilmaantuvuuden lasku näyttää pysähtyneen. Muuttuneella viiveellä lasketut ilmoitetut luvut nousevat toista päivää. Pääsyy näyttää olevan alle 15-vuotiaiden tartunnoissa, jotka ovat kääntyneet nousuun.
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Sunnuntaina THL ilmoitti 346 tartuntaa, ei poistanut yhtään, ja tunnettu raportoinnin viive kasvoi noin 21 tartunnalla. Muuttumattomalla viiveellä laskettu tartuntojen määrä on 367 (punainen viiva). Päiväkohtainen kasvu on toista päivää plussalla (sininen viiva).
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Syy tartuntojen nousuun on alle 15-vuotiaissa, jotka ovat joko palanneet tai palaamassa lähiopetukseen. 15-19 -vuotiaiden tartunnat vähenevät edelleen.
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20-50 -vuotiaiden tartuntojen määrät ovat edelleen laskeneet kautta linjan.
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Sen sijaan 50-64 -vuotiaiden tartunnat ovat lähteneet kasvamaan. 65-vuotiaiden ja sitä vanhempien tartunnat laskevat.
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More from @jukka235

Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Jan 9
Something is causing injuries among young children.
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Something changed in 2022. Before that, the numbers were generally falling. Wonder what it could be.
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After 2022, 1-6 year olds have overtaken a total of three other age groups (50-64, 15-24 and 65-74 year olds), and are now clearly above the total population average. All injuries (S00-S99).
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Read 6 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Jan 9
Developmental delays and disorders (F80-F89).
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Between 2020 and 2025e, the number of patients with developmental delay or disorder diagnoses grew at an average annual rate of 21.6% (10x in 11.8 years). The fastest patient growth was seen in pervasive developmental disorders, incl. autism and Asperger syndrome (F84).
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Among total population, number of patients with developmental delay or disorder diagnoses is up 2.6 times since 2020. All disorders are showing continued significant patient growth.
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Read 11 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Dec 23, 2025
Finland's epidemic 23 Dec 2025: amount of virus in wastewater appears to have risen above the first Omicron wave. Post-Omicron baseline is permanently higher than pre-Omicron; repeated waves are showing no diminishing.
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Post-Omicron baseline is permanently higher than pre-Omicron
- before late 2021, levels were mostly 10³–10⁴.
- from 2022 onward, even troughs sit around 10⁵, or 10-100x higher
- C19 has become endemic
- constant background transmission, even outside waves
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Repeated large waves in 2023–2024, not diminishing. Notable peaks:
- Apr 2023
- Nov 2023 (highest for the entire pandemic)
- Dec 2024

These peaks are:
- comparable to or higher than Omicron 2022
- evidence against a simple “each wave gets smaller” narrative
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Read 21 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Nov 30, 2025
Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities. For 1-6 year olds,
- the condition showing largest increase since 2022 is Down's syndrome (Q90)
- the condition showing fastest growth since 2022 is Congenital malformations of great arteries (Q25)
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1-6 year olds / chromosomal abnormalities (Q90-Q99).
- Down's syndrome (Q90): average patient growth (2022-2025e) 14% per year = 10x in 18 years)
- fastest growing condition: other sex chromosome abnormalities, male phenotype (Q98), up 150% in 2025e
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<1 year olds / chromosomal abnormalities (Q90-Q99):
- Down's syndrome (Q90) is the most frequent diagnosis
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Read 9 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Nov 11, 2025
Intellectual disabilities (F70-F79): <1 year olds are leading in terms of y/y growth. Ten percent of <1 year olds will have an intellectual disability diagnosis in 14 year's time (2039), if current growth rates continue.
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The rise in intellectual disability among <1 year olds also shows in number of diagnoses: up roughly 11 times in 4 years. Also note the rise among 1-6 year olds.
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7-14 and 15-24 year olds are showing the highest levels of intellectual disability. If current growth rates continue, 5 percent of 7-14 and 15-24 year olds will have an intellectual disability diagnosis by 2048 (24 years from now).
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Read 6 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Nov 3, 2025
Last time I checked, unvaccinated 30-49 year olds were dying at a rate 39 times higher than those who had received two vaccine doses. Finland.

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Link to thread:
Grok confirms.
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Read 6 tweets

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