Legacy companies are going to struggle with AI for two reasons: 1/8
First, they are risk-averse. Deep learning models are black-box, and it’s kind of impossible to explain why a model produced a specific output. Sometimes the output is totally unexpected. Sometimes it’s offensive. Remember Tay, Microsoft’s offensive chatbot? 2/8
This will inevitably confuse and anger the risk-averse middle managers at legacy companies. They will default to “no” because their incentive structure rewards stable, low-risk execution. 3/8
Founder-led tech companies tend to be more aggressive and risk-tolerant. They will push the limits and reap the benefits. 4/8
Second, legacy companies will struggle to attract top-tier talent. There are (maybe?) a few thousand great AI practitioners. Top tech companies know how to recruit, retain, and maximize the productivity of top-tier talent. Legacy companies don't. 5/8
Top tech company culture promotes autonomy. They pay very well (over $1mm for good engineers) and have cool brands. And networks are insular in that great talent follows great talent. 6/8
Conversely, I doubt that legacy companies will pay 27 y/o engineers $1mm+. Nor will they give them unlimited vacation or the autonomy to work on problems they find interesting. 7/8
But they will happily pay a management consulting firm $25 million for an 85-page PPT on the importance of AI! 8/8
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Data is the current limiting factor in AI. Infra is pretty good, and models simply need more training data to push the limits of what is possible. 1/4
Example: GPT-3 was trained on most of the internet’s available text data. But more data will probably result in a more performant model. So, where does one find more text data?? 2/4
One approach is to convert audio to text. @Spotify recently released audio-text data from 100,000 podcasts.
Another approach is to use synthetic generation, whereby one AI model generates data to train another AI model. 3/4
1900s: Economies of Scale
2000s: Network Effects
2020s: Data Advantages
1/14
Economies of Scale: In the 1900s, the dominant companies benefited from scale. Standard Oil's size enabled Rockefeller to negotiate railroad rebates, acquire early tank cars, etc. He could profitability sell oil at a price point lower than his competitors could produce it. 2/14
Economies of scale aren't as powerful in software because the underlying infrastructure components - internet, servers, etc. - are generally shared resources. The cost of compute isn't that much different for BigCo and SmallCo. And scale is available instantly. 3/14
Interesting thought by @sama on AI-enabled Moore's law of everything: "Imagine a world where, for decades, everything–housing, education, food, clothing, etc.–became half as expensive every two years." 1/11
Labor is expensive, and AI promises to reduce the cost of labor to something nearing zero. The result is lower prices and higher profit margins. 2/11
Thanks to the reduction in labor costs, coupled with net-new value creation, AI will likely be the most significant source of wealth creation in human history. Our research suggests that AI could add $30T to equity market capitalization over the next 15-20 years. 3/11